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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · Exponential technology series

Yazılım ve tedarik zinciri bütünlüğü

Kritik sistemlerde açık kaynak ve ticari yazılım bağımlılıkları, derleme bütünlüğü ve köken.

İnşaat Göstergeler
Page GRX-SER-XT-14Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-14 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Alan endeksleri

2

Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk

Göstergeler

26

2 index domains

Hazard families

22

Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology.

Yöntemler

101

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Scientific assurance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
2
alan endeksleri
26
indicators in scope
2
tehlike alanları
3
client groups

01Kapsam

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which critical systems depend on unmaintained components?
  2. How verifiable are software builds?
  3. Where would a compromised dependency propagate?
02İnşaat

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Software and supply-chain integrity index is built

Graph6 nodes
Grafik
01Alan endeksleri
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Dizin
  1. Siber risk

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Teknoloji yoğunlaşması riski

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Software and supply-chain integrity index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-14
    Kritik sistemlerde açık kaynak ve ticari yazılım bağımlılıkları, derleme bütünlüğü ve köken.
  4. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
ÇalıştırılmadıSürüyorTamamlandı
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Endeksler

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Software and supply-chain integrity index, world
–
Değerler baskıyla yayımlanır; aralık, sınıf ve değişim burada görünür.
Endeks Değer Değişim Değişim % %90 aralık Sınıf · olasılık Eğilim Aralık
Siber riskNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Teknoloji yoğunlaşması riskiNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier.

04Göstergeler

26 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Gösterge Alan Sub-domain Bileşen Birim Düzeyler Crosswalks
Kritik minerallerde net ithalat bağımlılığıIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Kritik mineral ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Kritik mineraller vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
İnternet kullanan bireylerIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity başa çıkma kapasitesi % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Uluslararası bağlantı güzergâhı yedekliliğiIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity başa çıkma kapasitesi 1 COUNTRY
Ulusal ölçekli internet kesintisi saatleriIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
ITU Küresel Siber Güvenlik Endeksi puanıIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability başa çıkma kapasitesi {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU Küresel Siber Güvenlik Endeksi kademesiIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI yasal önlemler sütunuIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability başa çıkma kapasitesi {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI teknik önlemler sütunuIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability başa çıkma kapasitesi {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI örgütsel önlemler sütunuIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability başa çıkma kapasitesi {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI kapasite geliştirme önlemleri sütunuIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability uyum kapasitesi {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI işbirliği önlemleri sütunuIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability başa çıkma kapasitesi {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Faal ulusal bilgisayar olaylarına müdahale ekibiIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability başa çıkma kapasitesi {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Yürürlükte veri koruma ve gizlilik mevzuatıIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability başa çıkma kapasitesi {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Milyon kişi başına önemli siber olaylarIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Kritik hizmetleri aksatan siber olaylarIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
BİT hizmetleri katma değeri, GSYH payıIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence maruziyet % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
E-devlet gelişimiIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence maruziyet {score} COUNTRY
Ar-Ge'ye yönelik gayri safi yurt içi harcama, GSYH payıIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability uyum kapasitesi % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Milyon kişi başına araştırmacıIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability uyum kapasitesi /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Yüksek teknoloji ihracatı, imalat ihracatının payıIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability uyum kapasitesi % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Yarı iletken ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Bulut altyapısı sağlayıcı yoğunlaşmasıIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Yabancı veya tek sağlayıcı denetimindeki yapay zekâ hesaplama kapasitesiIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Yapay zekâ vulnerability % COUNTRY
Temel model sağlayıcı yoğunlaşmasıIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Yapay zekâ vulnerability % COUNTRY
Yüksek muhafazalı laboratuvarların biyogüvenlik ve biyoemniyet denetimiIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biyoteknoloji başa çıkma kapasitesi {score} COUNTRY
05Tehlikeler

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
BilgiÖncü157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Aile Alan Tehlikeler Sayı
Malicious compromise Bilgi ve siber-fiziksel sistemler Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Bilgi ve siber-fiziksel sistemler Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Bilgi ve siber-fiziksel sistemler Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Bilgi ve siber-fiziksel sistemler Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Bilgi ve siber-fiziksel sistemler Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Bilgi ve siber-fiziksel sistemler Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
AI system failure and misalignment Öncü ve üstel teknoloji AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Öncü ve üstel teknoloji AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biyoteknoloji ve sentetik biyoloji Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
İklim müdahalesi teknolojileri Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Öncü ve üstel teknoloji 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Dağıtık defterler ve dijital varlıklar Öncü ve üstel teknoloji Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Yöntemler

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Siber, yapay zekâ ve öncü teknoloji

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

45 methods

Bilimsel güvence

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

08Raporlar

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-14
Edition status
planlanıyor
Konu
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Atıf

Atıf ve yeniden kullanım

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Software and supply-chain integrity series (GRX-SER-XT-14), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-14/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000101.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-14:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Ülke profilleri Tüm seriler

Durum

The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.

NXS-GRX ne değildir

NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.

Kurumlar ve kaynaklar

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.