NXS-GRX · SR-04 · Strategic systems series
Minerals
Critical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.
Page GRX-SER-SR-04Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports SR-04 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices
5
External dependence risk · Environmental pressure · Governance weakness · Energy security risk
Indicators
128
5 index domains
Hazard families
29
Society, conflict and economy · Land and ecosystems · Pollution and hazardous substances
Methods
56
Markets, trade and supply chains · Energy risk
5
domain indices
128
indicators in scope
3
hazard domains
4
client groups
01Scope
Scope and questions
The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.
- Where is mineral supply most concentrated?
- Which transition technologies depend on fragile mineral chains?
- What environmental and social risk travels with extraction?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Minerals index is builtGraph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
- External dependence riskDomain index · IDX · ECOWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0-10.
- Environmental pressureDomain index · IDX · ENV0-10 index of environmental pressure and ecosystem condition combining air pollution, land and forest degradation, biodiversity status, ocean condition and waste pressure.
- Governance weaknessDomain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
- Energy security riskDomain index · IDX · ENEIndex of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Technology concentration riskDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Minerals indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-04Critical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
03Indices
Domain indices in this series
NXS-GRX · SR-04 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Minerals index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External dependence riskNXS-GRX · ECO | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Environmental pressureNXS-GRX · ENV | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Governance weaknessNXS-GRX · GOV | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Energy security riskNXS-GRX · ENE | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Economic structure and trade, Technology and frontier, Energy, Environment and biodiversity, Governance and institutions.
04Indicators
128 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports of goods and services, current US dollarsIND.MAC.external.exports.usd | MAC | External balance and reserves | context | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD |
| Volatility of the terms of trade (10-year)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Natural-resource revenue, share of general government revenueIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share | FIS | Revenue | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Trade openness (exports plus imports, share of GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
| International tourism receipts, share of exportsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Trade | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
| Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
| Net official development assistance received, share of GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
| Export product concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Export market concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Commodity export dependenceIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
| Manufactures, share of merchandise exportsIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
| Natural-resource rents, share of GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
| Economic complexity indexIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Food imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
| Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Import origin concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Foreign value added share of gross exportsIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Supplier concentration of intermediate-goods importsIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foreign direct investment net inflows, share of GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Investment | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
| Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
| Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
| Fuel exports, share of merchandise exportsIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
| Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
| Annual burned area, share of land areaIND.HAZ.wildfire.burned_area.share | HAZ | Wildfire | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0205 EMDAT nat-cli-wil-wil |
| PM2.5 exposure, population-weighted meanIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure | ENV | Air quality | hazard | ug/m3 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD |
| Population exposed above the WHO PM2.5 guideline, shareIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share | ENV | Air quality | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS |
| Seasonal peak ozone exposureIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure | ENV | Air quality | hazard | [ppb] | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Land areaIND.ENV.land.land_area | ENV | Land and forests | context | km2 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY | WB_WDI AG.LND.TOTL.K2 |
| Forest area, share of land areaIND.ENV.land.forest_cover.share | ENV | Land and forests | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 15.1.1 WB_WDI AG.LND.FRST.ZS |
| Annual tree cover loss rateIND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share | ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | EPI TCL |
| Degraded land, share of land areaIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share | ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | SDG 15.3.1 |
| Road densityIND.ENV.land.road_density | ENV | Land and forests | hazard | km/km2 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Red List IndexIND.ENV.biodiversity.red_list_index | ENV | Biodiversity | vulnerability | 1 | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY | SDG 15.5.1 |
| Biodiversity Intactness IndexIND.ENV.biodiversity.biodiversity_intactness | ENV | Biodiversity | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Terrestrial protected areas, share of land areaIND.ENV.biodiversity.terrestrial_protected.share | ENV | Biodiversity | response | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI ER.LND.PTLD.ZS |
| Key biodiversity areas covered by protected areasIND.ENV.biodiversity.key_biodiversity_area_protected.share | ENV | Biodiversity | response | % | COUNTRY, REGION | SDG 15.1.2 |
| Marine protected areas, share of territorial watersIND.ENV.ocean.marine_protected.share | ENV | Ocean | response | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS SDG 14.5.1 |
| Coastal eutrophication indexIND.ENV.ocean.coastal_eutrophication | ENV | Ocean | hazard | % | COUNTRY, REGION | SDG 14.1.1 |
| Average marine acidity (pH)IND.ENV.ocean.ocean_acidity | ENV | Ocean | hazard | [pH] | COUNTRY, REGION, SITE | SDG 14.3.1 |
| Fish stocks within biologically sustainable levelsIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share | ENV | Ocean | vulnerability | % | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY | SDG 14.4.1 |
| Marine heatwave days per yearIND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days | ENV | Ocean | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, REGION, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708 |
| Municipal solid waste generated per capitaIND.ENV.pollution.msw_generation.pc | ENV | Pollution and waste | hazard | kg/a/{person} | COUNTRY, CITY | |
| Municipal solid waste managed in controlled facilitiesIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share | ENV | Pollution and waste | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW |
| Mismanaged plastic waste per capitaIND.ENV.pollution.mismanaged_plastic_waste.pc | ENV | Pollution and waste | hazard | kg/a/{person} | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share | ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Crop production value dependent on animal pollination, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share | ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Level of water stressIND.WAT.stress.water_stress | WAT | Water stress | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS |
| Water-use efficiencyIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency | WAT | Water stress | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 | COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
| Water bodies with good ambient water qualityIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share | WAT | Water quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.3.2 |
| Wastewater flows safely treatedIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share | WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
| Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency | WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share | WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
| GDP in GNSS-dependent activities, shareIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
| High-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones, shareIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
| Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
| Cropland, share of land areaIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
| Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament | SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
| Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
| Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
| Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
| Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
| Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
| Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
| Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
| Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
| CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
| CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
| CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
| Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
| Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
| Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
| Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
| Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
| Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Population with access to electricityIND.ENE.access.electricity_access | ENE | Access | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
| Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | ENE | Access | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
| Electricity consumption per capitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc | ENE | Access | context | kW.h/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
| Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
| Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] | COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
| Electricity generation-mix concentrationIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
| Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} | COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
| Water-dependent electricity generation, shareIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Net energy import dependenceIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
| Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Oil stocks in days of net importsIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d | COUNTRY | |
| Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
| Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | ENE | Reliability | impact | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
| System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
| Heating and cooling degree daysIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days | ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance | INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
| Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
| Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp | INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours | INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a | CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
| Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
| E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotechnology | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
| Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
05Hazards
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organised and collective violence | Society, conflict and economy | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | Society, conflict and economy | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | Society, conflict and economy | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | Society, conflict and economy | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | Society, conflict and economy | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | Society, conflict and economy | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | Society, conflict and economy | Coup d'etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | Society, conflict and economy | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | Society, conflict and economy | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | Society, conflict and economy | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | Society, conflict and economy | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | Society, conflict and economy | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | Society, conflict and economy | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | Society, conflict and economy | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
| Vegetation and peat fire | Land and ecosystems | Extreme fire weather, Wildfire, Wildland-urban interface fire, Peat and underground fire, Fire regime shift | 5 |
| Forest and woodland stress | Land and ecosystems | Deforestation, Forest dieback, Large forest disturbance, Forest pest invasion, Native forest insect outbreak | 5 |
| Land and wetland degradation | Land and ecosystems | Land degradation, Desertification, Soil quality decline, Soil salinisation and sodicity, Wetland loss, Mangrove loss, Peatland drainage and degradation, Soil sealing … | 9 |
| Biodiversity and species stress | Land and ecosystems | Biodiversity loss, Coral bleaching, Pollinator decline, Fishery collapse, Mass wildlife mortality, Human-wildlife conflict, Wildlife disease panzootic, Insect decline … | 12 |
| Climate-state shifts | Land and ecosystems | Abrupt climate-system shift, Volcanic cooling | 2 |
| Ecosystem regime shifts | Land and ecosystems | Kelp forest collapse, Seagrass meadow loss, Lake clear-to-turbid shift, Woody plant encroachment, Coastal habitat squeeze, Food-web collapse | 6 |
| Air pollution episodes | Pollution and hazardous substances | Outdoor air pollution episode, Point-source air emission, Household air pollution, Black carbon, Acid deposition, Ground-level ozone episode, Open waste burning, Agricultural residue burning … | 9 |
| Contaminated water, soil and food | Pollution and hazardous substances | Diffuse runoff pollution, Soil contamination, Chemical water contamination, Oil spill, Microplastic contamination, Food and feed contamination, Mycotoxin contamination, Seafood biotoxin contamination … | 10 |
| Persistent and bioaccumulative substances | Pollution and hazardous substances | Persistent organic pollutants, PFAS contamination, Mercury exposure, Lead exposure, Cadmium exposure, Arsenic in drinking water, Trace-element imbalance, Asbestos exposure … | 9 |
| Hazardous releases and chemical agents | Pollution and hazardous substances | Chemical spill or leak, Toxic gas release, Asphyxiant gas release, Carbon monoxide poisoning, Corrosive substance release, Deliberate chemical-agent release | 6 |
| Ionising radiation and nuclear material | Pollution and hazardous substances | Nuclear plant accident, Radioactive material release, Nuclear detonation, Radioactive waste containment failure | 4 |
| Waste and residue failures | Pollution and hazardous substances | Solid waste mismanagement, Landfill failure, Hazardous and clinical waste release, Electronic waste exposure, Plastic waste accumulation, Marine debris, Untreated wastewater discharge, Waste impoundment failure … | 9 |
| Novel entities and emerging contaminants | Pollution and hazardous substances | Nanoplastic accumulation, Tyre and road wear particles, Endocrine-disrupting chemical exposure, Pharmaceutical pollution, Environmental spread of antimicrobial resistance, Unassessed chemical mixture exposure, Engineered nanomaterial release | 7 |
| Indoor environment hazards | Pollution and hazardous substances | Poor indoor air quality, Damp and mould exposure, Indoor chemical off-gassing, Indoor overheating, Second-hand smoke exposure | 5 |
| Noise, light and thermal pollution | Pollution and hazardous substances | Environmental noise pollution, Light pollution, Underwater noise pollution, Thermal water pollution | 4 |
06Methods
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
30 methods
Markets, trade and supply chains
Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …
26 methods
Energy risk
Generation Adequacy · Load Forecasting · Renewable Intermittency · Reserve Margin · Loss of Load Probability · Expected Unserved Energy · Grid Reliability …
07Users
Who uses it
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers; Watch chokepoints and pulse; Read country context
Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors
Read sovereign and systemic context; Run climate pathway packs; Build portfolio postures
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
International financial institutions and development banks
Screen country and project context; Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps; Design pre-arranged finance questions
08Reports
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
SR-04- Edition status
- planned
- Subject
- Named by Nexus Reports
09Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Minerals series (GRX-SER-SR-04), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-04/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000077.
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-04:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.ENV.biodiversity.environmental_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.