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Il Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-08 · Strategic systems series

Contagio finanziario e finanza sistemica

Esposizioni interconnesse, legami tra sovrani e banche, inversioni dei flussi di capitale e contagio attraverso le reti finanziarie.

Page GRX-SER-SR-08Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-08 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indici di dominio

1

Rischio per la stabilità finanziaria

Indicatori

150

4 index domains

Hazard families

18

Systemic and compound events · Society, conflict and economy.

Metodi

78

Financial risk · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
indici di dominio
150
indicators in scope
2
domini di pericolo
4
client groups

01Ambito

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where would a default propagate through financial links?
  2. How tight is the sovereign–bank loop?
  3. Which economies are exposed to sudden stops?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Financial contagion and systemic finance index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafo
01Indici di dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indice
  1. Rischio per la stabilità finanziaria

    Domain index · IDX · FIN
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  2. Financial contagion and systemic finance index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-08
    Esposizioni interconnesse, legami tra sovrani e banche, inversioni dei flussi di capitale e contagio attraverso le reti finanziarie.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indici

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-08 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Financial contagion and systemic finance index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Indice Valore Variazione Variazione % Intervallo al 90% Classe · probabilità Tendenza Intervallo
Rischio per la stabilità finanziariaNXS-GRX · FIN – – – – –

Domains read: Financial system, Fiscal and public debt, Economic structure and trade, Macroeconomy.

04Indicatori

150 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIS · 37FIN · 32ECO · 18MAC · 14
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicatore Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unità Livelli Crosswalks
Prodotto interno lordo, dollari USA correntiIND.MAC.output.gdp.usd MAC Output and growth context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.CD IMF_WEO NGDPD
PIL pro capite, PPA (ICP 2021)IND.MAC.output.gdp_per_capita.ppp21 MAC Output and growth coping capacity [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD
Crescita del PIL realeIND.MAC.output.real_gdp_growth MAC Output and growth vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG IMF_WEO NGDP_RPCH
Volatilità della crescita del PIL reale (10 anni)IND.MAC.output.growth_volatility MAC Output and growth vulnerability % COUNTRY
Inflazione dei prezzi al consumoIND.MAC.prices.cpi_inflation MAC Prices and inflation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG IMF_WEO PCPIPCH
Inflazione dei prezzi alimentariIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation MAC Prices and inflation vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT CP
Saldo delle partite correnti, quota del PILIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS IMF_WEO BCA_NGDPD
Riserve in mesi di importazioniIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover MAC External balance and reserves coping capacity mo COUNTRY WB_WDI FI.RES.TOTL.MO
Debito estero a breve termine, quota delle riserveIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.DSTC.IR.ZS
Stock di debito estero, quota del RNLIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS
Volatilità del tasso di cambio (36 mesi)IND.MAC.monetary.exchange_rate_volatility MAC Monetary and exchange-rate conditions vulnerability % COUNTRY
Tasso di disoccupazioneIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
Esportazioni di beni e servizi, dollari USA correntiIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatilità delle ragioni di scambio (10 anni)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Saldo complessivo delle amministrazioni pubbliche, quota del PILIND.FIS.balance.overall_balance.gdp FIS Fiscal balance vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGXCNL_NGDP WB_WDI GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS
Saldo primario delle amministrazioni pubbliche, quota del PILIND.FIS.balance.primary_balance.gdp FIS Fiscal balance vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGXONLB_NGDP
Saldo strutturale delle amministrazioni pubbliche, quota del PIL potenzialeIND.FIS.balance.structural_balance.potgdp FIS Fiscal balance vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGSB_NPGDP
Interest-rate-growth differential (r – g)IND.FIS.balance.interest_growth_differential FIS Fiscal balance vulnerability % COUNTRY
Entrate delle amministrazioni pubbliche, dollari USA correntiIND.FIS.revenue.total.usd FIS Revenue context [USD] COUNTRY IMF_GFS 1
Entrate delle amministrazioni pubbliche, quota del PILIND.FIS.revenue.total.gdp FIS Revenue coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGR_NGDP SDG 17.1.1 WB_WDI GC.REV.XGRT.GD.ZS
Entrate fiscali, quota del PILIND.FIS.revenue.tax.gdp FIS Revenue coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS IMF_GFS 11
Sforzo fiscale (effettivo rispetto alla capacità fiscale stimata)IND.FIS.revenue.tax_effort FIS Revenue adaptive capacity 1 COUNTRY
Entrate da risorse naturali, quota delle entrate delle amministrazioni pubblicheIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Spesa delle amministrazioni pubbliche, quota del PILIND.FIS.expenditure.total.gdp FIS Expenditure context % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGX_NGDP WB_WDI GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS
Spesa rigida, quota delle entrateIND.FIS.expenditure.rigid_share.revenue FIS Expenditure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pagamenti per interessi, quota delle entrateIND.FIS.expenditure.interest.revenue FIS Expenditure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS
Debito lordo delle amministrazioni pubbliche, quota del PILIND.FIS.debt.gross_debt.gdp FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGXWDG_NGDP WB_WDI GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS
Debito netto delle amministrazioni pubbliche, quota del PILIND.FIS.debt.net_debt.gdp FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGXWDN_NGDP
Quota in valuta estera del debito delle amministrazioni pubblicheIND.FIS.debt.fx_share FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY
Quota a breve termine del debito delle amministrazioni pubbliche (vita residua)IND.FIS.debt.short_term_share FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY
Vita media residua del debito delle amministrazioni pubblicheIND.FIS.debt.average_maturity FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability a COUNTRY
Debito delle amministrazioni pubbliche detenuto da non residentiIND.FIS.debt.nonresident_share FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY
Quota agevolata del debito estero pubblicoIND.FIS.debt.concessional_share FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.ALLC.ZS
Valore attuale del debito estero pubblico, quota del PILIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.gdp FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.GN.ZS
Valore attuale del debito estero pubblico, quota delle esportazioniIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.exports FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.EX.ZS
Fabbisogno finanziario lordo pubblico, quota del PILIND.FIS.financing.gross_financing_needs.gdp FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY
Servizio del debito estero pubblico, quota delle entrateIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.revenue FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY
Servizio del debito estero pubblico, quota delle esportazioniIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.exports FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.TDS.DPPG.XP.ZS SDG 17.4.1
Spread dei titoli sovrani rispetto al benchmarkIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_spread FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY
Spread dei credit default swap sovrani a cinque anniIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_cds_5y FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY
Debito delle società pubbliche non finanziarie, quota del PILIND.FIS.contingent.soe_debt.gdp FIS Contingent liabilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Garanzie pubbliche in essere, quota del PILIND.FIS.contingent.guarantees.gdp FIS Contingent liabilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Costo fiscale annuo atteso dei disastri, quota del PILIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp FIS Contingent liabilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Punteggio dell'indicatore composito LIC-DSF (pubblicato, riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Soglia LIC-DSF: VA del debito estero rispetto al PIL (riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_gdp FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Soglia LIC-DSF: VA del debito estero rispetto alle esportazioni (riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_exports FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Soglia LIC-DSF: servizio del debito estero rispetto alle esportazioni (riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_exports FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Soglia LIC-DSF: servizio del debito estero rispetto alle entrate (riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_revenue FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Benchmark LIC-DSF: VA del debito pubblico totale rispetto al PIL (riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_public_gdp FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Rischio di sofferenza debitoria LIC-DSF, come pubblicato (riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_risk_published FIS Debt-carrying capacity context {class} COUNTRY
Rischio complessivo di stress sovrano SRDSF, come pubblicato (riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.srdsf_risk_published FIS Debt-carrying capacity context {class} COUNTRY
Capitale regolamentare rispetto alle attività ponderate per il rischioIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
Capitale Tier 1 rispetto alle attività ponderate per il rischioIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
Capitale Common Equity Tier 1 rispetto alle attività ponderate per il rischioIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCET_PT
Capitale rispetto al totale delle attività (leva finanziaria)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
Crediti deteriorati al netto degli accantonamenti rispetto al capitaleIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital FIN Capital adequacy vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
Crediti deteriorati rispetto al totale dei crediti lordiIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
Accantonamenti rispetto ai crediti deterioratiIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl FIN Asset quality coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSPN_PT
Concentrazione dei prestiti per attività economicaIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
Crediti bancari verso le amministrazioni pubbliche, quota delle attività bancarieIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
Rendimento delle attivitàIND.FIN.earnings.roa FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERA_PT
Rendimento del capitale proprioIND.FIN.earnings.roe FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERE_PT
Attività liquide rispetto al totale delle attivitàIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
Attività liquide rispetto alle passività a breve termineIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLS_PT
Indice di copertura della liquiditàIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
Indice di provvista stabile nettaIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
Depositi della clientela rispetto al totale dei prestiti non interbancariIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCD_PT
Posizione netta aperta in valuta estera rispetto al capitale (assoluta)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
Prestiti in valuta estera, quota del totale dei prestiti (dollarizzazione del credito)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFC_PT
Depositi in valuta estera, quota del totale dei depositi (dollarizzazione dei depositi)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
Credito interno al settore privato, quota del PILIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion context % COUNTRY WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
Divario credito/PIL (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY
Crescita reale del credito al settore privatoIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
Debito delle famiglie, quota del PILIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Debito delle imprese non finanziarie, quota del PILIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
Titolarità di un conto, adultiIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Crescita reale dei prezzi degli immobili residenzialiIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
Rapporto prezzo delle abitazioni/reddito, scostamento dalla media di lungo periodoIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY, CITY
Attività delle altre società finanziarie, quota del PILIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp FIN Non-bank financial intermediation context % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
Penetrazione assicurativa (premi rispetto al PIL)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration FIN Non-bank financial intermediation coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
Divario di protezione dalle catastrofi naturaliIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap FIN Non-bank financial intermediation vulnerability % REGION, COUNTRY
Esposizione bancaria verso settori ad alta intensità di carbonioIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Prestiti bancari esposti a un elevato rischio fisico climaticoIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Apertura commerciale (esportazioni più importazioni, quota del PIL)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Commercio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Entrate dal turismo internazionale, quota delle esportazioniIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Commercio vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PILIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Commercio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Aiuto pubblico allo sviluppo netto ricevuto, quota del RNLIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Commercio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Concentrazione dei prodotti esportati (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei mercati di esportazione (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Dipendenza dalle esportazioni di materie primeIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufatti, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PILIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Indice di complessità economicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Importazioni di combustibili, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentrazione dell'origine delle importazioni (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Quota di valore aggiunto estero nelle esportazioni lordeIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di beni intermedi importatiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Afflussi netti di investimenti diretti esteri, quota del PILIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Investimento coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Intensità di carbonio del PILIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rendite da combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Esportazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Sussidi espliciti ai combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
Perdita media annua multi-pericolo, quota del PILIND.HAZ.multi.aal.gdp HAZ Multi-hazard impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Perdita massima probabile con periodo di ritorno di 250 anni, quota del PILIND.HAZ.multi.pml_rp250.gdp HAZ Multi-hazard impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
Perdita media annua da terremoti, quota del PILIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_aal.gdp HAZ Seismic and volcanic impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Perdita media annua da piene fluviali, quota del PILIND.HAZ.flood.flood_aal.gdp HAZ Flood impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Perdita media annua da cicloni tropicali, quota del PILIND.HAZ.storm.tc_aal.gdp HAZ Tropical and severe storms impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
Stock di capitale prodottoIND.HAZ.exposure.capital_stock HAZ Esposizione context [USD] COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
PIL generato in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.HAZ.exposure.gdp_exposed.share HAZ Esposizione exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Perdita economica diretta da disastri, quota del PILIND.HAZ.loss.direct_economic_loss.gdp HAZ Losses and impacts impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-1 SDG 1.5.2
Danni da disastri registrati, quota del PIL, media su 30 anniIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_damage.gdp HAZ Losses and impacts impact % COUNTRY EMDAT Total Damage, Adjusted ('000 US$)
PIL in settori fortemente dipendenti dalla natura, quotaIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Punteggio di stress idrico di base (sottobacino)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT Stress idrico hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Efficienza nell'uso dell'acquaIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Stress idrico adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
PIL in attività dipendenti dai GNSS, quotaIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Indice di dipendenza dalle importazioni di cerealiIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Spesa per importazioni alimentari, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Valore aggiunto di agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca, quota del PILIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Tasso di partecipazione femminile alla forza lavoroIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Occupazione informale, quota dell'occupazione totaleIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Spesa militare, quota del PILIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Efficienza nella mobilitazione delle entrate (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Scostamento dell'esecuzione del bilancio dal bilancio approvatoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Punteggio del contesto imprenditoriale (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Spesa per importazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di beni e serviziIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Concentrazione dei fornitori di greggio e prodotti petroliferi importatiIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di gas naturale importatoIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di carbone importatoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Quota del principale fornitore nelle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Prestazioni logisticheIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Connettività del trasporto marittimo di linea rispetto alla frontieraIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Divario di investimenti infrastrutturali, quota del PILIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Perdita economica diretta alle infrastrutture critiche, quota del PILIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Valore aggiunto dei servizi TIC, quota del PILIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Strategia di finanziamento del rischio di disastri adottataIND.CRS.financing.drf_strategy CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY
Partecipazione a un pool regionale sovrano di rischioIND.CRS.financing.regional_risk_pool_membership CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY
Credito contingente per disastri predisposto, quota del PILIND.CRS.financing.contingent_credit.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Limite di trasferimento sovrano del rischio di catastrofi, quota del PILIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Divario di protezione assicurativa dalle catastrofi naturaliIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap CRS Risk financing and protection gap vulnerability % COUNTRY
Premi assicurativi del ramo danni, quota del PILIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Sostegno ufficiale internazionale alla riduzione del rischio di disastri ricevuto, quota del PILIND.CRS.response.international_drr_support.gdp CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY SENDAI F-1
05Pericoli

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SocietàSistemico177HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 18 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famiglia Dominio Pericoli Count
Supply-chain and flow disruption Eventi sistemici e composti Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … 17
Cascading failure Eventi sistemici e composti Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … 10
Compound and multi-hazard events Eventi sistemici e composti Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … 9
Structural fragility of interconnected systems Eventi sistemici e composti Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … 11
Organised and collective violence Società, conflitti ed economia Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Società, conflitti ed economia Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Società, conflitti ed economia Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Società, conflitti ed economia Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Società, conflitti ed economia Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Società, conflitti ed economia Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Società, conflitti ed economia Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Società, conflitti ed economia Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Società, conflitti ed economia Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Società, conflitti ed economia Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Società, conflitti ed economia Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Società, conflitti ed economia Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Società, conflitti ed economia Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Società, conflitti ed economia Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Accoppiamento

How shocks cascade across systems

FIG 5 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WAT ENE FOO HLT BIO FIN TRD INF DIG SEC
Acqua
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 6 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
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AcquaEnergiaCiboSaluteBiodiversitàFinanzaCommercioInfrastruttureDigitalSicurezza

Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
07Metodi

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

57 methods

Rischio finanziario

Probability of Default · Loss Given Default · Exposure at Default · Expected Credit Loss · Unexpected Credit Loss · Credit Migration · Structural Credit Merton …

21 methods

Reti, dipendenza e rischio sistemico

Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …

08Users

Who uses it

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

09Rapporti

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-08
Edition status
prevista
Oggetto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Financial contagion and systemic finance series (GRX-SER-SR-08), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-08/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000081.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-08:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.