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El Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-08 · Strategic systems series

Contagio financiero y finanzas sistémicas

Exposiciones interconectadas, vínculos entre soberanos y bancos, reversiones de los flujos de capital y contagio a través de las redes financieras.

Page GRX-SER-SR-08Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-08 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de dominio

1

Riesgo de estabilidad financiera

Indicadores

150

4 index domains

Hazard families

18

Systemic and compound events · Society, conflict and economy.

Métodos

78

Financial risk · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
índices temáticos
150
indicators in scope
2
ámbitos de amenaza
4
client groups

01Alcance

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where would a default propagate through financial links?
  2. How tight is the sovereign–bank loop?
  3. Which economies are exposed to sudden stops?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Financial contagion and systemic finance index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Riesgo de estabilidad financiera

    Domain index · IDX · FIN
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  2. Financial contagion and systemic finance index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-08
    Exposiciones interconectadas, vínculos entre soberanos y bancos, reversiones de los flujos de capital y contagio a través de las redes financieras.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-08 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Financial contagion and systemic finance index, world
–
Los valores se publican con la edición; el intervalo, la clase y la variación aparecen aquí.
Índice Valor Variación Variación % Intervalo del 90 % Clase · probabilidad Tendencia Rango
Riesgo de estabilidad financieraNXS-GRX · FIN – – – – –

Domains read: Financial system, Fiscal and public debt, Economic structure and trade, Macroeconomy.

04Indicadores

150 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIS · 37FIN · 32ECO · 18MAC · 14
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unidad Niveles Crosswalks
Producto interior bruto, dólares estadounidenses corrientesIND.MAC.output.gdp.usd MAC Output and growth context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.CD IMF_WEO NGDPD
PIB per cápita, PPA (ICP 2021)IND.MAC.output.gdp_per_capita.ppp21 MAC Output and growth coping capacity [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD
Crecimiento del PIB realIND.MAC.output.real_gdp_growth MAC Output and growth vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG IMF_WEO NGDP_RPCH
Volatilidad del crecimiento del PIB real (10 años)IND.MAC.output.growth_volatility MAC Output and growth vulnerability % COUNTRY
Inflación de precios al consumidorIND.MAC.prices.cpi_inflation MAC Prices and inflation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG IMF_WEO PCPIPCH
Inflación de los precios de los alimentosIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation MAC Prices and inflation vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT CP
Saldo por cuenta corriente, porcentaje del PIBIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS IMF_WEO BCA_NGDPD
Reservas en meses de importacionesIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover MAC External balance and reserves coping capacity mo COUNTRY WB_WDI FI.RES.TOTL.MO
Deuda externa a corto plazo, porcentaje de las reservasIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.DSTC.IR.ZS
Saldo de la deuda externa, porcentaje del INBIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS
Volatilidad del tipo de cambio (36 meses)IND.MAC.monetary.exchange_rate_volatility MAC Monetary and exchange-rate conditions vulnerability % COUNTRY
Tasa de desempleoIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
Exportaciones de bienes y servicios, dólares estadounidenses corrientesIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatilidad de la relación de intercambio (10 años)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Saldo global del gobierno general, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.balance.overall_balance.gdp FIS Fiscal balance vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGXCNL_NGDP WB_WDI GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS
Saldo primario del gobierno general, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.balance.primary_balance.gdp FIS Fiscal balance vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGXONLB_NGDP
Saldo estructural del gobierno general, porcentaje del PIB potencialIND.FIS.balance.structural_balance.potgdp FIS Fiscal balance vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGSB_NPGDP
Interest-rate-growth differential (r – g)IND.FIS.balance.interest_growth_differential FIS Fiscal balance vulnerability % COUNTRY
Ingresos del gobierno general, dólares estadounidenses corrientesIND.FIS.revenue.total.usd FIS Revenue context [USD] COUNTRY IMF_GFS 1
Ingresos del gobierno general, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.revenue.total.gdp FIS Revenue coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGR_NGDP SDG 17.1.1 WB_WDI GC.REV.XGRT.GD.ZS
Ingresos tributarios, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.revenue.tax.gdp FIS Revenue coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS IMF_GFS 11
Esfuerzo tributario (recaudación real sobre capacidad tributaria estimada)IND.FIS.revenue.tax_effort FIS Revenue adaptive capacity 1 COUNTRY
Ingresos por recursos naturales, porcentaje de los ingresos del gobierno generalIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Gasto del gobierno general, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.expenditure.total.gdp FIS Expenditure context % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGX_NGDP WB_WDI GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS
Gasto rígido, porcentaje de los ingresosIND.FIS.expenditure.rigid_share.revenue FIS Expenditure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pagos de intereses, porcentaje de los ingresosIND.FIS.expenditure.interest.revenue FIS Expenditure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS
Deuda bruta del gobierno general, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.debt.gross_debt.gdp FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGXWDG_NGDP WB_WDI GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS
Deuda neta del gobierno general, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.debt.net_debt.gdp FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_WEO GGXWDN_NGDP
Proporción en moneda extranjera de la deuda del gobierno generalIND.FIS.debt.fx_share FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY
Proporción a corto plazo de la deuda del gobierno general (vencimiento residual)IND.FIS.debt.short_term_share FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY
Plazo medio de vencimiento de la deuda del gobierno generalIND.FIS.debt.average_maturity FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability a COUNTRY
Tenencias de deuda del gobierno general por no residentesIND.FIS.debt.nonresident_share FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY
Proporción concesional de la deuda externa públicaIND.FIS.debt.concessional_share FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.ALLC.ZS
Valor actual de la deuda externa pública, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.gdp FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.GN.ZS
Valor actual de la deuda externa pública, porcentaje de las exportacionesIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.exports FIS Debt stock and composition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.EX.ZS
Necesidades brutas de financiación pública, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.financing.gross_financing_needs.gdp FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY
Servicio de la deuda externa pública, porcentaje de los ingresosIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.revenue FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY
Servicio de la deuda externa pública, porcentaje de las exportacionesIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.exports FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.TDS.DPPG.XP.ZS SDG 17.4.1
Diferencial de los bonos soberanos frente a la referenciaIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_spread FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY
Diferencial de las permutas de incumplimiento crediticio soberano a cinco añosIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_cds_5y FIS Gross financing needs vulnerability % COUNTRY
Deuda de las sociedades públicas no financieras, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.contingent.soe_debt.gdp FIS Contingent liabilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Garantías públicas vigentes, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.contingent.guarantees.gdp FIS Contingent liabilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Costo fiscal anual esperado de los desastres, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp FIS Contingent liabilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Puntuación del indicador compuesto del LIC-DSF (publicada, referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Umbral del LIC-DSF: VA de la deuda externa respecto del PIB (referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_gdp FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Umbral del LIC-DSF: VA de la deuda externa respecto de las exportaciones (referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_exports FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Umbral del LIC-DSF: servicio de la deuda externa respecto de las exportaciones (referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_exports FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Umbral del LIC-DSF: servicio de la deuda externa respecto de los ingresos (referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_revenue FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Referencia del LIC-DSF: VA de la deuda pública total respecto del PIB (referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_public_gdp FIS Debt-carrying capacity context % COUNTRY
Riesgo de sobreendeudamiento según el LIC-DSF, tal como se publica (referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_risk_published FIS Debt-carrying capacity context {class} COUNTRY
Riesgo global de tensión soberana según el SRDSF, tal como se publica (referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.srdsf_risk_published FIS Debt-carrying capacity context {class} COUNTRY
Capital regulatorio sobre activos ponderados por riesgoIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
Capital de nivel 1 sobre activos ponderados por riesgoIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
Capital ordinario de nivel 1 sobre activos ponderados por riesgoIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCET_PT
Capital sobre activos totales (apalancamiento)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
Préstamos dudosos netos de provisiones sobre capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital FIN Capital adequacy vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
Préstamos dudosos sobre préstamos brutos totalesIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
Provisiones sobre préstamos dudososIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl FIN Asset quality coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSPN_PT
Concentración de préstamos por actividad económicaIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
Créditos bancarios al gobierno general, porcentaje de los activos bancariosIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
Rentabilidad sobre activosIND.FIN.earnings.roa FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERA_PT
Rentabilidad sobre fondos propiosIND.FIN.earnings.roe FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERE_PT
Activos líquidos sobre activos totalesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
Activos líquidos sobre pasivos a corto plazoIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLS_PT
Coeficiente de cobertura de liquidezIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
Coeficiente de financiación estable netaIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
Depósitos de clientes sobre préstamos no interbancarios totalesIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCD_PT
Posición abierta neta en moneda extranjera sobre capital (absoluta)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
Préstamos en moneda extranjera, porcentaje del total de préstamos (dolarización del crédito)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFC_PT
Depósitos en moneda extranjera, porcentaje del total de depósitos (dolarización de los depósitos)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
Crédito interno al sector privado, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion context % COUNTRY WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
Brecha crédito/PIB (BPI)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY
Crecimiento real del crédito al sector privadoIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
Deuda de los hogares, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Deuda de las empresas no financieras, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
Titularidad de cuentas, adultosIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Crecimiento real de los precios de la viviendaIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
Relación entre precio de la vivienda e ingresos, desviación respecto de la media a largo plazoIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY, CITY
Activos de otras sociedades financieras, porcentaje del PIBIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp FIN Non-bank financial intermediation context % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
Penetración del seguro (primas sobre PIB)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration FIN Non-bank financial intermediation coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
Brecha de protección ante catástrofes naturalesIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap FIN Non-bank financial intermediation vulnerability % REGION, COUNTRY
Exposición bancaria a sectores intensivos en carbonoIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Préstamos bancarios expuestos a un alto riesgo físico climáticoIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Apertura comercial (exportaciones más importaciones, porcentaje del PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Comercio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Ingresos por turismo internacional, porcentaje de las exportacionesIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Comercio vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Remesas personales recibidas, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Comercio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Asistencia oficial para el desarrollo neta recibida, porcentaje del INBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Comercio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Concentración de productos de exportación (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de mercados de exportación (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Dependencia de las exportaciones de materias primasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufacturas, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rentas de los recursos naturales, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Índice de complejidad económicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Importaciones de alimentos, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Importaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentración del origen de las importaciones (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Proporción de valor añadido extranjero en las exportaciones brutasIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de las importaciones de bienes intermediosIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Comercio marítimo expuesto a puntos de estrangulamiento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Entradas netas de inversión extranjera directa, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Inversión coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Intensidad de carbono del PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rentas de los combustibles fósiles, porcentaje del PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Exportaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Subsidios explícitos a los combustibles fósiles, porcentaje del PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
Pérdida anual media multiamenaza, porcentaje del PIBIND.HAZ.multi.aal.gdp HAZ Multi-hazard impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Pérdida máxima probable con un periodo de retorno de 250 años, porcentaje del PIBIND.HAZ.multi.pml_rp250.gdp HAZ Multi-hazard impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
Pérdida anual media por terremotos, porcentaje del PIBIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_aal.gdp HAZ Seismic and volcanic impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Pérdida anual media por inundaciones fluviales, porcentaje del PIBIND.HAZ.flood.flood_aal.gdp HAZ Flood impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO
Pérdida anual media por ciclones tropicales, porcentaje del PIBIND.HAZ.storm.tc_aal.gdp HAZ Tropical and severe storms impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
Stock de capital producidoIND.HAZ.exposure.capital_stock HAZ Exposición context [USD] COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO
PIB generado en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.HAZ.exposure.gdp_exposed.share HAZ Exposición exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Pérdidas económicas directas por desastres, porcentaje del PIBIND.HAZ.loss.direct_economic_loss.gdp HAZ Losses and impacts impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-1 SDG 1.5.2
Daños por desastres registrados, porcentaje del PIB, media de 30 añosIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_damage.gdp HAZ Losses and impacts impact % COUNTRY EMDAT Total Damage, Adjusted ('000 US$)
PIB en sectores muy dependientes de la naturaleza, proporciónIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Puntuación de estrés hídrico de referencia (subcuenca)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT Estrés hídrico hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Eficiencia en el uso del aguaIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Estrés hídrico adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
PIB en actividades dependientes de GNSS, proporciónIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Tasa de dependencia de las importaciones de cerealesIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Factura de importación de alimentos, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Valor añadido de la agricultura, la silvicultura y la pesca, porcentaje del PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Tasa de participación femenina en la fuerza laboralIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Empleo informal, porcentaje del empleo totalIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Gasto militar, porcentaje del PIBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Eficiencia de la movilización de ingresos (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Desviación de la ejecución presupuestaria respecto del presupuesto aprobadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Puntuación del entorno empresarial (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y serviciosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Desempeño logísticoIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Conectividad del transporte marítimo de línea respecto de la fronteraIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Brecha de inversión en infraestructura, porcentaje del PIBIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pérdidas económicas directas en infraestructura crítica, porcentaje del PIBIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Valor añadido de los servicios TIC, porcentaje del PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Exportaciones de alta tecnología, porcentaje de las exportaciones de manufacturasIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de semiconductoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Estrategia de financiación del riesgo de desastres adoptadaIND.CRS.financing.drf_strategy CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY
Participación en un fondo regional soberano de riesgosIND.CRS.financing.regional_risk_pool_membership CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY
Crédito contingente preacordado para desastres, porcentaje del PIBIND.CRS.financing.contingent_credit.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Límite de transferencia soberana del riesgo de catástrofes, porcentaje del PIBIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Brecha de protección del seguro ante catástrofes naturalesIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap CRS Risk financing and protection gap vulnerability % COUNTRY
Primas de seguros no de vida, porcentaje del PIBIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Apoyo oficial internacional para la RRD recibido, porcentaje del PIBIND.CRS.response.international_drr_support.gdp CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY SENDAI F-1
05Amenazas

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SociedadSistémico177HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 18 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Familia Dominio Amenazas Count
Supply-chain and flow disruption Eventos sistémicos y compuestos Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … 17
Cascading failure Eventos sistémicos y compuestos Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … 10
Compound and multi-hazard events Eventos sistémicos y compuestos Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … 9
Structural fragility of interconnected systems Eventos sistémicos y compuestos Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … 11
Organised and collective violence Sociedad, conflicto y economía Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Sociedad, conflicto y economía Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Sociedad, conflicto y economía Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Sociedad, conflicto y economía Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Sociedad, conflicto y economía Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Sociedad, conflicto y economía Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Sociedad, conflicto y economía Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Sociedad, conflicto y economía Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Sociedad, conflicto y economía Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Sociedad, conflicto y economía Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Sociedad, conflicto y economía Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Sociedad, conflicto y economía Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Sociedad, conflicto y economía Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Sociedad, conflicto y economía Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Acoplamiento

How shocks cascade across systems

FIG 5 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WAT ENE FOO HLT BIO FIN TRD INF DIG SEC
Agua
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 6 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
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se ejecuta en su navegador

AguaEnergíaAlimentaciónSaludBiodiversidadFinanzasComercioInfraestructuraDigitalSeguridad

Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
07Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

57 methods

Riesgo financiero

Probability of Default · Loss Given Default · Exposure at Default · Expected Credit Loss · Unexpected Credit Loss · Credit Migration · Structural Credit Merton …

21 methods

Redes, dependencia y riesgo sistémico

Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …

08Users

Who uses it

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

09Informes

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-08
Edition status
prevista
Asunto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Citar

Citar y reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Financial contagion and systemic finance series (GRX-SER-SR-08), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-08/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000081.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-08:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.