The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · XT-17 · Exponential technology series

Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure

Distributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk.

Page GRX-SER-XT-17Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX proposedNexus Reports XT-17 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

3

Financial stability risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk

Indicators

66

3 index domains

Hazard families

22

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems

Methods

113

Financial risk · Cyber, AI and frontier technology

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
domain indices
66
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups
01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where do ledgers touch essential services?
  2. What financial-stability channels exist?
  3. How is failure governed?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation
How the Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index is built
Graph7 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
  1. Financial stability risk
    Domain index · IDX · FIN
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta-Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0-10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  2. Cyber risk
    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Technology concentration risk
    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index
    Series index · SERIES · XT-17
    Distributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk.
  5. Country readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading
    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

NXS-GRX · XT-17 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
IndexValueChangeChange %90% intervalClass · probabilityTrendRange
Financial stability riskNXS-GRX · FIN—————
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB—————
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC—————

Domains read: Financial system, Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital.

04Indicators

66 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIN · 32CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.
IndicatorDomainSub-domainComponentUnitLevelsCrosswalks
Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwaFINCapital adequacycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwaFINCapital adequacycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
Common Equity Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwaFINCapital adequacycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSCET_PT
Capital to total assets (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assetsFINCapital adequacycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capitalFINCapital adequacyvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
Non-performing loans to total gross loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratioFINAsset qualityvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
Provisions to non-performing loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_nplFINAsset qualitycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSPN_PT
Loan concentration by economic activityIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentrationFINAsset qualityvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposureFINAsset qualityvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
Return on assetsIND.FIN.earnings.roaFINEarningscoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSERA_PT
Return on equityIND.FIN.earnings.roeFINEarningscoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSERE_PT
Liquid assets to total assetsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_totalFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilitiesFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSLS_PT
Liquidity coverage ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.lcrFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
Net stable funding ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfrFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loansFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSCD_PT
Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capitalFINForeign-exchange riskvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_shareFINForeign-exchange riskvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSFC_PT
Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_shareFINForeign-exchange riskvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
Domestic credit to the private sector, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdpFINFinancial depth and inclusioncontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gapFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRY
Real growth of credit to the private sectorIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growthFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdpFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdpFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownershipFINFinancial depth and inclusioncoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Real residential property price growthIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growthFINReal estatevulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gapFINReal estatevulnerability%COUNTRY, CITY
Assets of other financial corporations, share of GDPIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdpFINNon-bank financial intermediationcontext%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
Insurance penetration (premiums to GDP)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetrationFINNon-bank financial intermediationcoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gapFINNon-bank financial intermediationvulnerability%REGION, COUNTRY
Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposureFINClimate-related financial exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lendingFINClimate-related financial exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesexposure%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.shareENVNature dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Baseline water stress score (sub-basin)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stressWATWater stresshazard{score}COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_usersINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYSDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancyINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity1COUNTRY
Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hoursINFDigital connectivityimpacth/aCOUNTRY
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_scoreCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Overall score
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tierCYBCyber capabilityvulnerability{class}COUNTRYITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technicalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizationalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_developmentCYBCyber capabilityadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperationCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_certCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_lawCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rateCYBIncidentshazard/10*6/aCOUNTRY
Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidentsCYBIncidentsimpact1COUNTRY
ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdpCYBDigital dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_developmentCYBDigital dependenceexposure{score}COUNTRY
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdpTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_millionTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity/10*6COUNTRYSDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exportsTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentrationTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversightTECBiotechnologycoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
Sovereign catastrophe risk transfer limit, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdpCRSRisk financing and protection gapcoping capacity%COUNTRY
Natural-catastrophe insurance protection gapIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gapCRSRisk financing and protection gapvulnerability%COUNTRY
Non-life insurance premiums, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetrationCRSRisk financing and protection gapcoping capacity%COUNTRY
05Hazards

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformationFrontier157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below.
FamilyDomainHazardsCount
AI system failure and misalignmentFrontier and exponential technologyAI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration …11
AI security and model supply chainFrontier and exponential technologyTheft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning7
AI misuse and capability upliftFrontier and exponential technologyAI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI8
Agentic AI acting at scaleFrontier and exponential technologyRunaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach6
Algorithmic decision and structural harmFrontier and exponential technologyHarmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots …12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weaponsFrontier and exponential technologyLethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure …10
Biotechnology and synthetic biologyFrontier and exponential technologyEngineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release …10
Nanotechnology and advanced materialsFrontier and exponential technologyEngineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended realityFrontier and exponential technologyBrain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transitionFrontier and exponential technologyCryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment4
Climate intervention technologiesFrontier and exponential technologySolar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage …11
Space technology and orbital infrastructureFrontier and exponential technologyDestructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monocultureFrontier and exponential technologyCritical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure3
Advanced and distributed manufacturingFrontier and exponential technology3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure3
Energy-transition technology failuresFrontier and exponential technologyLithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration4
Distributed ledgers and digital assetsFrontier and exponential technologySmart-contract and oracle exploit1
Malicious compromiseInformation and cyber-physical systemsMalware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign …9
Information-integrity attacksInformation and cyber-physical systemsDisinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure6
Cyber-physical disruptionInformation and cyber-physical systemsIndustrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation …11
Signal and platform disruptionInformation and cyber-physical systemsSatellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failureInformation and cyber-physical systemsIdentity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure6
Systemic cyber eventsInformation and cyber-physical systemsDefective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss …9
06Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

57 methods

Financial risk

Probability of Default · Loss Given Default · Exposure at Default · Expected Credit Loss · Unexpected Credit Loss · Credit Migration · Structural Credit Merton …

56 methods

Cyber, AI and frontier technology

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios; Read systemic coupling; Replicate methods

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context; Run climate pathway packs; Build portfolio postures

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index

08Reports

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-17
Edition status
planned
Subject
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
Nexus Reports
09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure series (GRX-SER-XT-17), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-17/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000104.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-17:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.