The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · XT-02 · Exponential technology series

Cyber and cyber-physical systems

Threats to operational technology, industrial control and cyber-physical systems across energy, water, health, ports and logistics.

Page GRX-SER-XT-02Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX proposedNexus Reports XT-02 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

1

Cyber risk

Indicators

83

3 index domains

Hazard families

19

Information and cyber-physical systems · Built systems

Methods

83

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Critical infrastructure and industrial systems

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
domain indices
83
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
4
client groups
01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which essential services expose control systems?
  2. How fast could a cyber-physical incident cascade?
  3. Where is recovery capacity weakest?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation
How the Cyber and cyber-physical systems index is built
Graph5 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
  1. Cyber risk
    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Cyber and cyber-physical systems index
    Series index · SERIES · XT-02
    Threats to operational technology, industrial control and cyber-physical systems across energy, water, health, ports and logistics.
  3. Country readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading
    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

NXS-GRX · XT-02 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Cyber and cyber-physical systems index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
IndexValueChangeChange %90% intervalClass · probabilityTrendRange
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB—————

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Infrastructure, Energy.

04Indicators

83 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24ENE · 23CYB · 13
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.
IndicatorDomainSub-domainComponentUnitLevelsCrosswalks
Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsexposurekg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Flood protection design standardIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standardHAZFloodcoping capacityaCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Built-up surface areaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_areaHAZExposurecontextkm2COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Built-up area in high-hazard zonesIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposedHAZExposureexposurekm2COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Road densityIND.ENV.land.road_densityENVLand and forestshazardkm/km2COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Municipal solid waste managed in controlled facilitiesIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.shareENVPollution and wastecoping capacity%COUNTRY, CITYSDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
Level of water stressIND.WAT.stress.water_stressWATWater stresshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
Wastewater flows safely treatedIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.shareWATWater qualitycoping capacity%COUNTRY, CITYSDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
GDP in GNSS-dependent activities, shareIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.shareSPCSpace-service dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, PORTFOLIOUNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Critical services relying on satellites without backup, shareIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.shareSPCSpace-service dependencevulnerability%COUNTRY
High-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones, shareIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.shareSPCSpace-service dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1
Travel time to the nearest health facilityIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_timeHLTHealth system capacityvulnerabilityminCOUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Urban population, share of totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_shareDEMUrbanisationcontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Urban population growthIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growthDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_shareDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Population with access to electricityIND.ENE.access.electricity_accessENEAccessvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cookingENEAccessvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Electricity consumption per capitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pcENEAccesscontextkW.h/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfecENEEnergy mixadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityENEEnergy mixvulnerabilityMJ/[USD]COUNTRYSDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Electricity generation-mix concentrationIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentrationENEEnergy mixvulnerability1COUNTRY
Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcENEEnergy mixadaptive capacityW/{person}COUNTRYSDG 7.b.1
Water-dependent electricity generation, shareIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1
Net energy import dependenceIND.ENE.security.net_energy_importsENESupply security and import dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exportsENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Oil stocks in days of net importsIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksENESupply security and import dependencecoping capacitydCOUNTRY
Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outagesENEReliabilityvulnerability/moCOUNTRYWB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_lossENEReliabilityimpact%COUNTRYWB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidiENEReliabilityvulnerabilityh/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifiENEReliabilityvulnerability/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIND.ENE.reliability.td_lossesENEReliabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Heating and cooling degree daysIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_daysENEReliabilityhazardK.d/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_shareENECritical mineralsvulnerability%COUNTRY
Rural population within 2 km of an all-season roadIND.INF.transport.rural_road_accessINFTransportcoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 9.1.1
Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performanceINFTransportcoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivityINFTransportcoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Air passengers carried per capitaIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pcINFTransportcoping capacity{passengers}/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_accessINFTransportcoping capacity%CITY, ADM1, COUNTRYSDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Road and rail network in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.shareINFTransportexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_usersINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYSDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Population covered by a mobile network, by technologyIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverageINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 9.c.1
Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitantsIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadbandINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity/10*2COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancyINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity1COUNTRY
Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hoursINFDigital connectivityimpacth/aCOUNTRY
Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilienceINFUtilitiescoping capacity{score}COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Water supply network resilienceIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilienceINFUtilitiescoping capacity{score}COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_powerINFUtilitiescoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Water supply assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.shareINFUtilitiesexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.shareINFUtilitiesexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Lifeline facilities in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.shareINFUtilitiesexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdpINFUtilitiesvulnerability%COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hoursINFUrban systemsvulnerabilityh/aCITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Critical infrastructure units damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damageINFService disruptionimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damagedINFService disruptionimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1SENDAI D-2
Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damagedINFService disruptionimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1SENDAI D-3
Disruptions to basic services attributed to disastersIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptionsINFService disruptionimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1SENDAI D-5
Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdpINFService disruptionimpact%COUNTRY, ADM1SENDAI C-5
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_scoreCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Overall score
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tierCYBCyber capabilityvulnerability{class}COUNTRYITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technicalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizationalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_developmentCYBCyber capabilityadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperationCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_certCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_lawCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rateCYBIncidentshazard/10*6/aCOUNTRY
Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidentsCYBIncidentsimpact1COUNTRY
ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdpCYBDigital dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_developmentCYBDigital dependenceexposure{score}COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Population within 15 minutes of emergency servicesIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_accessCRSResponse capacitycoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Hazards

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
BuiltInformation158HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 19 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below.
FamilyDomainHazardsCount
Malicious compromiseInformation and cyber-physical systemsMalware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign …9
Information-integrity attacksInformation and cyber-physical systemsDisinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure6
Cyber-physical disruptionInformation and cyber-physical systemsIndustrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation …11
Signal and platform disruptionInformation and cyber-physical systemsSatellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failureInformation and cyber-physical systemsIdentity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure6
Systemic cyber eventsInformation and cyber-physical systemsDefective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss …9
Structural and civil failureBuilt systemsBuilding collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture8
Utility and communication network outageBuilt systemsWidespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure6
Transport accidentsBuilt systemsAir transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash5
Industrial and process accidentsBuilt systemsIndustrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire …15
Energy system instability and shortfallBuilt systemsLow-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall …22
Water and wastewater system failureBuilt systemsWastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply …9
Telecom and data-centre failureBuilt systemsData-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss8
Space-based service lossBuilt systemsNavigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure4
Seabed infrastructure damageBuilt systemsSubsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage3
Transport network disruptionBuilt systemsAir traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident …12
Food system infrastructure failureBuilt systemsFood storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production5
Urban and building-stock stressBuilt systemsBuilding overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure6
Ageing and degraded infrastructureBuilt systemsInfrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage7
06Coupling

How shocks cascade across systems

FIG 5 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WATENEFOOHLTBIOFINTRDINFDIGSEC
Water
Energy
Food
Health
Biodiversity
Finance
Trade
Infrastructure
Digital
Security
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 6 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
–
runs in your browser
WaterEnergyFoodHealthBiodiversityFinanceTradeInfrastructureDigitalSecurity
Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
07Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Cyber, AI and frontier technology

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

27 methods

Critical infrastructure and industrial systems

Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …

08Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers; Watch chokepoints and pulse; Read country context

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context; Run scenario and tail analytics; Study parametric index design questions

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios; Read systemic coupling; Replicate methods

09Reports

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-02
Edition status
planned
Subject
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
Nexus Reports
10Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Cyber and cyber-physical systems series (GRX-SER-XT-02), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-02/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000089.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-02:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.