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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index solutions · Public sector

中央银行与监管机构

设计监管情景，解读系统性耦合，复现方法。

Follow a run All solutions
页面 GRX-SOL-SUPERVISORS版本 2026 基线版证据截止 2026-09-30数值 尚未发布方法 v1.0.0-draft
on: scenario run requested · Run a scenario or stress test7 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Choose the scenario family instant
  2. Configure shocks and horizon self-serve
  3. Model runs 3 hours
  4. Coupling propagation 1 hour
  5. Tail and exceedance 1 hour
  6. Results and drivers instant
  7. Analyst sign-off 2 days

01Need

What this solution does

设计监管情景，解读系统性耦合，复现方法。

Design supervisory scenarios

Read systemic coupling

Replicate methods

02Featured run

运行情景或压力测试

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

on: scenario run requested

运行情景或压力测试

In progressTriggered by Risk analyst7 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

流程图
01Design
02Design
03Run
04Propagate
05阅读
06阅读

100%
时间线
Job0 h10 h20 h30 h40 h50 hTarget
Choose the scenario familyYouinstant
Configure shocks and horizonYouinstant
Model runsModel Lab3 h
Coupling propagationDependency network1 h
Tail and exceedanceModel Lab1 h
Results and driversYouinstant
Analyst sign-offYour reviewer2 d

End to end on the longest path: about 2.2 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

步骤
  1. Choose the scenario family

    Design · You · instant
    Warming, socio-economic or transition families · Or a structured shock: fiscal, compound hazard, supply
    Model Lab
  2. Configure shocks and horizon

    Design · You · self-serve
    Shock size, timing and entry points · Horizon to 2030, 2050 or 2100
    Model LabTested model kernels
  3. Model runs matrix · entities × scenarios × draws

    Run · Model Lab · 3 hours
    Kernels from the method library · Seeds recorded per run
    Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engine
  4. Coupling propagation

    Propagate · Dependency network · 1 hour
    DebtRank and threshold cascades · Cross-border spillovers
    依赖网络经测试的模型内核
  5. Tail and exceedance

    Propagate · Model Lab · 1 hour
    Exceedance curves · 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 losses · Expected shortfall
    蒙特卡罗引擎
  6. Results and drivers

    Read · You · instant
    Fan charts against class bounds · Driver decomposition · Export with citation
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  7. Analyst sign-off approval

    Read · Your reviewer · 2 days
    Assumptions and limits recorded
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
产出物
产出物 作业 执行方 阶段
Scenario spec Choose the scenario family 您 Design
Run configuration Configure shocks and horizon 您 Design
Run record with seed and digest Model runs Model Lab Run
Cascade paths Coupling propagation 依赖网络 Propagate
Tail report Tail and exceedance Model Lab Propagate
Results pack Results and drivers 您 阅读
Sign-off Analyst sign-off Your reviewer 阅读
已完成进行中等待批准排队中审批关口矩阵作业当前位置
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
03旅程

Every journey in this solution

NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Models · Model

运行情景或压力测试

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. 7 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run Models of the Index · Test

测试并验证模型

Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. 7 jobs · 1 gate · 11 checks.

Open the run NXS-GRX Indices · Test

复现任意数值

Fetch the replication pack for any published value and recompute it from the same inputs, kernel and seed; the digest must match. 5 jobs · 4 checks.

Open the run

04产品

产品与服务

INSTScenario and stress-test packsPathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests (compound hazards, transition shocks, fiscal shocks) for planning and supervisory exercises. PROGMethod review and replicationReplication packs and method reviews of risk indices, including NXS-GRX itself, using the published construction steps. INSTNXS-GRX API and data servicesREST endpoints, SDMX-compatible observation keys, vector tiles (ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3), bulk files and webhooks for threshold crossings; public anonymous cut for open values.
05系列

Series most read

GS-02全球能源供应充足性、进口依赖、电网可靠性、可负担性、极端天气暴露、关键矿产和转型路径。 GS-05全球金融与经济财政和公共债务风险、金融稳定、外部依赖、通胀和增长风险，以及物理风险和转型风险的宏观金融传导渠道。 GS-07全球气候长期与急性的物理气候灾害、转型风险敞口、适应缺口，以及至 2030、2050 和 2100 年的情景路径。 GS-13全球网络与数字网络能力与威胁暴露、数字依赖、连接韧性，以及通往基本服务的信息物理渠道。 SR-08金融传染与系统性金融相互关联的风险敞口、主权与银行的联系、资本流动逆转，以及经由金融网络的传染。 XT-01人工智能与智能体系统AI 和智能体系统既是物理基础设施（算力、能源、水、材料和供应链），也是危害来源：故障、滥用、集中和监督缺口。 XT-02网络与网络物理系统对能源、水、卫生、港口和物流领域的运营技术、工业控制和网络物理系统的威胁。 XT-03电信、开放无线网络与边缘计算电信韧性、开放式和 AI 原生无线接入网、专用无线网络、边缘计算和频谱限制。 XT-05量子相关安全公共和金融系统的密码韧性及向后量子密码的迁移。

Talk to the Secretariat

Enterprise, public-sector and sovereign work is agreed with GCRI Canada.

联系

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

Pulse 信号和展望概率是供主管当局审查的信息，绝不是公共警报；官方警报只由获授权的当局发布。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.