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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index solutions · Public sector

Central banks and supervisors

Design supervisory scenarios, read systemic coupling and replicate methods.

Follow a run All solutions
Page GRX-SOL-SUPERVISORSEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
on: scenario run requested · Run a scenario or stress test7 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Choose the scenario family instant
  2. Configure shocks and horizon self-serve
  3. Model runs 3 hours
  4. Coupling propagation 1 hour
  5. Tail and exceedance 1 hour
  6. Results and drivers instant
  7. Analyst sign-off 2 days

01Need

What this solution does

Design supervisory scenarios, read systemic coupling and replicate methods.

Design supervisory scenarios

Read systemic coupling

Replicate methods

02Featured run

Run a scenario or stress test

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

on: scenario run requested

Run a scenario or stress test

In progressTriggered by Risk analyst7 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Graph
01Design
02Design
03Run
04Propagate
05Read
06Read

100%
Timeline
Job0 h10 h20 h30 h40 h50 hTarget
Choose the scenario familyYouinstant
Configure shocks and horizonYouinstant
Model runsModel Lab3 h
Coupling propagationDependency network1 h
Tail and exceedanceModel Lab1 h
Results and driversYouinstant
Analyst sign-offYour reviewer2 d

End to end on the longest path: about 2.2 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Choose the scenario family

    Design · You · instant
    Warming, socio-economic or transition families · Or a structured shock: fiscal, compound hazard, supply
    Model Lab
  2. Configure shocks and horizon

    Design · You · self-serve
    Shock size, timing and entry points · Horizon to 2030, 2050 or 2100
    Model LabTested model kernels
  3. Model runs matrix · entities × scenarios × draws

    Run · Model Lab · 3 hours
    Kernels from the method library · Seeds recorded per run
    Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engine
  4. Coupling propagation

    Propagate · Dependency network · 1 hour
    DebtRank and threshold cascades · Cross-border spillovers
    Dependency networkTested model kernels
  5. Tail and exceedance

    Propagate · Model Lab · 1 hour
    Exceedance curves · 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 losses · Expected shortfall
    Monte Carlo engine
  6. Results and drivers

    Read · You · instant
    Fan charts against class bounds · Driver decomposition · Export with citation
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  7. Analyst sign-off approval

    Read · Your reviewer · 2 days
    Assumptions and limits recorded
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
Artefacts
Artefact Job Who Stage
Scenario spec Choose the scenario family You Design
Run configuration Configure shocks and horizon You Design
Run record with seed and digest Model runs Model Lab Run
Cascade paths Coupling propagation Dependency network Propagate
Tail report Tail and exceedance Model Lab Propagate
Results pack Results and drivers You Read
Sign-off Analyst sign-off Your reviewer Read
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateMatrix jobYou are here
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
03Journeys

Every journey in this solution

NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Models · Model

Run a scenario or stress test

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. 7 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run Models of the Index · Test

Test and validate a model

Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. 7 jobs · 1 gate · 11 checks.

Open the run NXS-GRX Indices · Test

Reproduce any value

Fetch the replication pack for any published value and recompute it from the same inputs, kernel and seed; the digest must match. 5 jobs · 4 checks.

Open the run

04Products

Products and services

INSTScenario and stress-test packsPathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests (compound hazards, transition shocks, fiscal shocks) for planning and supervisory exercises. PROGMethod review and replicationReplication packs and method reviews of risk indices, including NXS-GRX itself, using the published construction steps. INSTNXS-GRX API and data servicesREST endpoints, SDMX-compatible observation keys, vector tiles (ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3), bulk files and webhooks for threshold crossings; public anonymous cut for open values.
05Series

Series most read

GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways. GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk. GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100. GS-13Global Cyber and digitalCyber capability and threat exposure, digital dependency, connectivity resilience and the cyber-physical channels into essential services. SR-08Financial contagion and systemic financeInterconnected exposures, sovereign–bank links, capital-flow reversals and contagion through financial networks. XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps. XT-02Cyber and cyber-physical systemsThreats to operational technology, industrial control and cyber-physical systems across energy, water, health, ports and logistics. XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints. XT-05Quantum-relevant securityCryptographic resilience and the migration to post-quantum cryptography across public and financial systems.

Talk to the Secretariat

Enterprise, public-sector and sovereign work is agreed with GCRI Canada.

સંપર્ક

સ્થિતિ

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Pulse signals and outlook probabilities are information for review by competent authorities, never public warnings; official warnings come only from mandated authorities.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.