The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · XT-04 · Exponential technology series

Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud

Compute dependency and concentration, cloud and data-residency risk, accelerator supply and secure compute.

Page GRX-SER-XT-04Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX proposedNexus Reports XT-04 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

1

Technology concentration risk

Indicators

57

3 index domains

Hazard families

35

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems · Built systems

Methods

56

Cyber, AI and frontier technology

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
domain indices
57
indicators in scope
3
hazard domains
3
client groups
01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. How concentrated is national compute dependency?
  2. Where would a cloud outage stop public services?
  3. Who controls the accelerators risk science relies on?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation
How the Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index is built
Graph5 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
  1. Technology concentration risk
    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index
    Series index · SERIES · XT-04
    Compute dependency and concentration, cloud and data-residency risk, accelerator supply and secure compute.
  3. Country readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading
    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

NXS-GRX · XT-04 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
IndexValueChangeChange %90% intervalClass · probabilityTrendRange
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC—————

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy.

04Indicators

57 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.
IndicatorDomainSub-domainComponentUnitLevelsCrosswalks
Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsexposurekg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Level of water stressIND.WAT.stress.water_stressWATWater stresshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
High-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones, shareIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.shareSPCSpace-service dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1
Population with access to electricityIND.ENE.access.electricity_accessENEAccessvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cookingENEAccessvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Electricity consumption per capitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pcENEAccesscontextkW.h/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfecENEEnergy mixadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityENEEnergy mixvulnerabilityMJ/[USD]COUNTRYSDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Electricity generation-mix concentrationIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentrationENEEnergy mixvulnerability1COUNTRY
Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcENEEnergy mixadaptive capacityW/{person}COUNTRYSDG 7.b.1
Water-dependent electricity generation, shareIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1
Net energy import dependenceIND.ENE.security.net_energy_importsENESupply security and import dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exportsENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Oil stocks in days of net importsIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksENESupply security and import dependencecoping capacitydCOUNTRY
Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outagesENEReliabilityvulnerability/moCOUNTRYWB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_lossENEReliabilityimpact%COUNTRYWB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidiENEReliabilityvulnerabilityh/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifiENEReliabilityvulnerability/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIND.ENE.reliability.td_lossesENEReliabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Heating and cooling degree daysIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_daysENEReliabilityhazardK.d/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_shareENECritical mineralsvulnerability%COUNTRY
Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_usersINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYSDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancyINFDigital connectivitycoping capacity1COUNTRY
Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hoursINFDigital connectivityimpacth/aCOUNTRY
Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilienceINFUtilitiescoping capacity{score}COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.shareINFUtilitiesexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hoursINFUrban systemsvulnerabilityh/aCITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_scoreCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Overall score
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tierCYBCyber capabilityvulnerability{class}COUNTRYITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technicalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizationalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_developmentCYBCyber capabilityadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperationCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_certCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Technical Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_lawCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rateCYBIncidentshazard/10*6/aCOUNTRY
Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidentsCYBIncidentsimpact1COUNTRY
ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdpCYBDigital dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_developmentCYBDigital dependenceexposure{score}COUNTRY
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdpTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_millionTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity/10*6COUNTRYSDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exportsTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentrationTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversightTECBiotechnologycoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
05Hazards

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
BuiltInformationFrontier267HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 35 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below.
FamilyDomainHazardsCount
AI system failure and misalignmentFrontier and exponential technologyAI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration …11
AI security and model supply chainFrontier and exponential technologyTheft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning7
AI misuse and capability upliftFrontier and exponential technologyAI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI8
Agentic AI acting at scaleFrontier and exponential technologyRunaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach6
Algorithmic decision and structural harmFrontier and exponential technologyHarmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots …12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weaponsFrontier and exponential technologyLethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure …10
Biotechnology and synthetic biologyFrontier and exponential technologyEngineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release …10
Nanotechnology and advanced materialsFrontier and exponential technologyEngineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended realityFrontier and exponential technologyBrain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transitionFrontier and exponential technologyCryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment4
Climate intervention technologiesFrontier and exponential technologySolar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage …11
Space technology and orbital infrastructureFrontier and exponential technologyDestructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monocultureFrontier and exponential technologyCritical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure3
Advanced and distributed manufacturingFrontier and exponential technology3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure3
Energy-transition technology failuresFrontier and exponential technologyLithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration4
Distributed ledgers and digital assetsFrontier and exponential technologySmart-contract and oracle exploit1
Malicious compromiseInformation and cyber-physical systemsMalware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign …9
Information-integrity attacksInformation and cyber-physical systemsDisinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure6
Cyber-physical disruptionInformation and cyber-physical systemsIndustrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation …11
Signal and platform disruptionInformation and cyber-physical systemsSatellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failureInformation and cyber-physical systemsIdentity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure6
Systemic cyber eventsInformation and cyber-physical systemsDefective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss …9
Structural and civil failureBuilt systemsBuilding collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture8
Utility and communication network outageBuilt systemsWidespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure6
Transport accidentsBuilt systemsAir transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash5
Industrial and process accidentsBuilt systemsIndustrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire …15
Energy system instability and shortfallBuilt systemsLow-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall …22
Water and wastewater system failureBuilt systemsWastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply …9
Telecom and data-centre failureBuilt systemsData-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss8
Space-based service lossBuilt systemsNavigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure4
Seabed infrastructure damageBuilt systemsSubsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage3
Transport network disruptionBuilt systemsAir traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident …12
Food system infrastructure failureBuilt systemsFood storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production5
Urban and building-stock stressBuilt systemsBuilding overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure6
Ageing and degraded infrastructureBuilt systemsInfrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage7
06Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Cyber, AI and frontier technology

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers; Watch chokepoints and pulse; Read country context

Universities and research

Replicate every value; Study methods; Contribute data and review

08Reports

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-04
Edition status
planned
Subject
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
Nexus Reports
09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud series (GRX-SER-XT-04), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-04/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000091.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-04:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.