Macroeconomy and external position
Output, prices, external balance and reserves, monetary conditions and labour, with intervals and the change since the last edition.
4 admitted · 4 under legal review · 1 not in the register
NXS-GRX-VAT · Southern Europe
Holy See
Country risk profile on The Global Risks Index: hazard and threat exposure, vulnerability, macro-financial fragility, coping capacity and systemic coupling, with intervals, sources and corrections on every value.
Page GRX-VATEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30ISO VAT / VAStatus UN observer stateValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Holy See in Southern Europe
Loading the map
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110m · locatorValues when released
20
domain indices
443
country indicators
14
hazard domains
14
sub-regional peers
01Brief
Holy See at a glance
What changed, what is live and what is open, each with its source.
Composite
Live alertsPublishes with the edition
The composite risk of Holy See, with its 90% interval and class probability, appears when the first edition is released.
Through NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)
Active hazard alerts in Holy See come only through NXS-GRX once it admits risksindex.com; pages never call providers directly.
Hazards CorrectionsNone recorded
No correction is recorded for this country in the current edition’s log.
Notices Right of replyOpen
Institutions of Holy See can submit evidence or a reply at any time.
Submit02Areas
The full profile of Holy See, area by area
Fourteen areas from macroeconomy to frontier technology, and the planned innovation index. Each card says whether its sources are cleared, shows the mix, and gives two actions: what the area needs, and a scenario you can run now on open data.
How to readAdmitted: usableUnder legal review: waitingProhibited: excludedNot in the register: not yet assessedAcross the 14 areas: 113 admitted · 63 under legal review · 23 prohibited · 170 not in the register
Fiscal position and public debt
Debt path fan charts, gross financing needs, debt service and fiscal stress, with the assumptions published.
7 admitted · 13 under legal review · 8 not in the register
Financial system
Banking-system capital and liquidity, credit growth, asset prices and contagion on the dependency network.
9 admitted · 4 under legal review · 1 prohibited · 8 not in the register
Trade, economic structure and supply chains
Trade openness and concentration, commodity dependence and supply-chain exposure by sector.
8 admitted · 6 under legal review · 5 not in the register
Water
Water stress, drought, access and quality, coupled to food, energy and health in the water, energy, food, health and biodiversity nexus.
3 admitted · 2 under legal review · 2 prohibited · 4 not in the register
Energy
Supply security, import dependence, grid reliability, transition exposure and access.
7 admitted · 5 under legal review · 1 prohibited · 18 not in the register
Food systems
Availability, access, prices and nutrition, and the drivers from water, energy, trade and conflict.
14 admitted · 4 under legal review · 2 not in the register
Health security
Health-system capacity, outbreak preparedness, disease burden and the health effects of other systems.
4 admitted · 2 under legal review · 15 prohibited · 8 not in the register
Environment and biodiversity
Ecosystem condition, biodiversity pressure, land and ocean change and nature dependence of the economy.
9 admitted · 5 under legal review · 1 prohibited · 22 not in the register
Climate: physical and transition
Chronic and acute physical risk under scenarios, and transition exposure of the economy and the public balance sheet.
10 admitted · 7 under legal review · 24 not in the register
Conflict, governance and security
Violence and its spillovers, institutional quality, rule of law and state capacity.
9 admitted · 4 under legal review · 1 prohibited · 14 not in the register
Frontier technology and innovation
Frontier technology risk and capacity side by side: AI, compute, semiconductors, quantum, space, biotech, cyber resilience and digital infrastructure, with the innovation index below.
9 admitted · 5 under legal review · 1 prohibited · 26 not in the register
Coping capacity and disaster finance
Preparedness, response and recovery capacity, risk financing and social protection.
9 admitted · 1 under legal review · 1 prohibited · 18 not in the register
Society, demography and mobility
Human development, inequality, ageing, urbanisation and displacement.
11 admitted · 1 under legal review · 12 not in the register
Innovation index
Research, patents, talent, compute, digital infrastructure and capital for Holy See, read beside frontier technology risk. Not in Indicator Standard yet; each indicator needs its source admitted.
03Quote
Holy See composite risk
Value, change since the previous edition, 90% interval and class probability; the history and the published indicators follow.
NXS-GRX-VAT · CRI · Southern Europe · 0–10 scale
Holy See composite risk
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
- Previous edition
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Coupled composite
- –
- Coupling score S
- –
- Pulse, latest week
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Method
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
Holy See composite risk, by edition
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
“Holy See: published indicators” is not connected: the Foundry connection it needs is switched off on this network.
04Profile
Four pillars, composite and coupled composite
The composite is shown only with its four pillars and twenty domain indices beside it; each value carries a 90% interval and a class with its probability.
| Instrument | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXS-GRX Composite RiskNXS-GRX-VAT · CRI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
NXS-GRX Coupled RiskNXS-GRX-VAT · CPL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Hazard and threat exposureNXS-GRX-VAT · HTE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Human and systems vulnerabilityNXS-GRX-VAT · VUL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Macro-financial and structural fragilityNXS-GRX-VAT · MSF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Lack of coping and adaptive capacityNXS-GRX-VAT · LCC | – | – | – | – | – |
Very low0.0 to < 2.0
Low2.0 to < 3.5
Medium3.5 to < 5.0
High5.0 to < 6.5
Very high6.5 to 10.0
05Nexus
Water, energy, food, health and biodiversity
The national dense nexus core of Holy See: shared stressors, cross-system dependencies and the couplings that turn one failure into several.
Water
Water security risk index
Reading and couplings published with the edition.
Index EnergyEnergy security risk index
Reading and couplings published with the edition.
Index FoodFood insecurity risk index
Reading and couplings published with the edition.
Index HealthHealth security risk index
Reading and couplings published with the edition.
Index BiodiversityEnvironmental pressure index
Reading and couplings published with the edition.
Index06Coupling
How Holy See is coupled to the world
Not yet estimated. Coupling strengths through trade and inputs, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and information are ◆ ESTIMATED per edition with their method and references; the coupled composite is reported beside the standalone one.
07Instruments
Pulse, outlook, pathways, tail and perception
Pulse signals and outlook probabilities are information for review, never warnings; official warnings for Holy See come only from its mandated authorities.
Weekly nowcast, event-driven between releases
Pulse
What has changed since the last structural cut? ●OBSERVED▲INFERRED.
Method Monthly, horizons of 1, 3, 12 and 36 monthsOutlook
How likely are defined adverse outcomes over a stated horizon? ◇FORECAST.
Method Each annual editionPathways
How does risk move under alternative futures to 2030, 2050 and 2100? ○SCENARIO◈SIMULATED.
Method Each annual edition, event-updatedTail
What does the rare, severe end of the distribution look like? ◈SIMULATED◆MODELLED.
Method Each annual edition, quarterly network refreshCoupling
Where does risk travel across systems and borders? ◆ESTIMATED◈SIMULATED.
Method Annual expert and public survey wavesPerception
Where does perceived risk differ from measured risk? ◎EXPERT INPUT□REPORTED.
Method08Peers
Profiles in Southern Europe
A peer group is a reading context, not a ranking; profiles are listed by name.
- ALBAlbania
- ANDAndorra
- BIHBosnia and Herzegovina
- HRVCroatia
- GRCGreece
- ITAItaly
- MLTMalta
- MNEMontenegro
- MKDNorth Macedonia
- PRTPortugal
- SMRSan Marino
- SRBSerbia
- SVNSlovenia
- ESPSpain
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
A country profile reads public evidence about a place. It is not a statement by or about the policy of any government, takes no position on the status of any territory, and does not imply a national programme or participation. Names follow UN M49.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Pulse signals and outlook probabilities are information for review by competent authorities, never public warnings; official warnings come only from mandated authorities.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.