Country risk profile on The Global Risks Index: hazard and threat exposure, vulnerability, macro-financial fragility, coping capacity and systemic coupling, with intervals, sources and corrections on every value.
Source observations from the Humanitarian Data Exchange, each with its reference date, provider and licence. They are not index values.
Refugees hosted · 2025-12-31
106,597
refugees and asylum-seekers in the country. UNHCR – The UN Refugee Agency · Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO).
Refugees from the country · 2025-12-31
828
refugees and asylum-seekers abroad, most in United States of America, Germany, Canada. UNHCR – The UN Refugee Agency · Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO).
Humanitarian funding · 2025-12-31
US$ 1 m
received against US$ 30 m required. OCHA Financial Tracking System (FTS) · Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO).
Rainfall
28 units
with rainfall against the long-term average, on the unit pages. WFP – World Food Programme · Creative Commons Attribution International (CC BY).
03Areas
The full profile of Bulgaria, area by area
Fourteen areas from macroeconomy to frontier technology, and the planned innovation index. Each card says whether its sources are cleared, shows the mix, and gives two actions: what the area needs, and a scenario you can run now on open data.
How to readAdmitted: usableUnder legal review: waitingProhibited: excludedNot in the register: not yet assessedAcross the 14 areas: 113 admitted · 63 under legal review · 23 prohibited · 170 not in the register
Partly admitted14 indicators · 2 composites
Macroeconomy and external position
Output, prices, external balance and reserves, monetary conditions and labour, with intervals and the change since the last edition.
GDP
US$ 130.8 billion 2025
GDP per person
US$ 20,328 2025
GDP growth
3.1% 2025
4 admitted · 4 under legal review · 1 not in the register
Frontier technology risk and capacity side by side: AI, compute, semiconductors, quantum, space, biotech, cyber resilience and digital infrastructure, with the innovation index below.
Research and development spending
0.79% 2023
Researchers in R&D
2,401 2023
High-technology exports
13.4% 2024
9 admitted · 5 under legal review · 1 prohibited · 26 not in the register
Research, patents, talent, compute, digital infrastructure and capital for Bulgaria, read beside frontier technology risk. Not in Indicator Standard yet; each indicator needs its source admitted.
Value, change since the previous edition, 90% interval and class probability; the history and the published indicators follow.
NXS-GRX-BGR · CRI · Eastern Europe · 0–10 scale
Bulgaria composite risk
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Previous edition
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Range since 2016
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Coupled composite
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Coupling score S
–
Pulse, latest week
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Outlook, 12 months
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Method
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws
1,000
Bulgaria composite risk, by edition
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Bulgaria: published indicators: waiting for the Foundry indicator widget. Nothing shown here is live data until it mounts. Claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
05Profile
Four pillars, composite and coupled composite
The composite is shown only with its four pillars and twenty domain indices beside it; each value carries a 90% interval and a class with its probability.
Not yet estimated. Coupling strengths through trade and inputs, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and information are ◆ ESTIMATED per edition with their method and references; the coupled composite is reported beside the standalone one.
Pulse signals and outlook probabilities are information for review, never warnings; official warnings for Bulgaria come only from its mandated authorities.
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
A country profile reads public evidence about a place. It is not a statement by or about the policy of any government, takes no position on the status of any territory, and does not imply a national programme or participation. Names follow UN M49.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Pulse signals and outlook probabilities are information for review by competent authorities, never public warnings; official warnings come only from mandated authorities.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.
The Index is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.
Independence
Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.