Software and supply-chain integrity
Open-source and commercial software dependencies, build integrity and provenance across critical systems.
2
Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk
26
2 index domains
22
Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology
101
Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Scientific assurance
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which critical systems depend on unmaintained components?
- How verifiable are software builds?
- Where would a compromised dependency propagate?
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
- Cyber riskDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Technology concentration riskDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Software and supply-chain integrity indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-14Open-source and commercial software dependencies, build integrity and provenance across critical systems.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Domain indices in this series
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier.
26 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
| International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a | COUNTRY | |
| ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_score | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
| ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier | CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
| ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
| ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
| ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development | CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
| ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
| National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_cert | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
| Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate | CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a | COUNTRY | |
| Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents | CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
| E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotechnology | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malicious compromise | Information and cyber-physical systems | Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … | 9 |
| Information-integrity attacks | Information and cyber-physical systems | Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure | 6 |
| Cyber-physical disruption | Information and cyber-physical systems | Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … | 11 |
| Signal and platform disruption | Information and cyber-physical systems | Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure | 7 |
| Identity, trust and cryptographic failure | Information and cyber-physical systems | Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure | 6 |
| Systemic cyber events | Information and cyber-physical systems | Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … | 9 |
| AI system failure and misalignment | Frontier and exponential technology | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Frontier and exponential technology | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Frontier and exponential technology | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Frontier and exponential technology | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Frontier and exponential technology | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Frontier and exponential technology | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotechnology and synthetic biology | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Frontier and exponential technology | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Frontier and exponential technology | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Climate intervention technologies | Frontier and exponential technology | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Frontier and exponential technology | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Frontier and exponential technology | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Frontier and exponential technology | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Frontier and exponential technology | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Frontier and exponential technology | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
Cyber, AI and frontier technology
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
Scientific assurance
Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers; Watch chokepoints and pulse; Read country context
Regulators, supervisors and central banks
Design supervisory scenarios; Read systemic coupling; Replicate methods
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-14- Edition status
- planned
- Subject
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
Cite and reuse
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-14:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.