The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-FIN · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Financial stability risk index

Expert-weighted Mazziotta-Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0-10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.

Page GRX-IDX-FINEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_riskValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

mazziotta pareto

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Uncertainty

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Structure

7 components

28 leaf indicators

Coverage

71% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
28
leaf indicators
7
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
5
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

A strong capital ratio does not offset a large FX mismatch or credit boom; the penalised aggregate keeps one weak pillar visible. Sub-indices are always shown beside the index.

computation
How Financial stability risk is computed
Graph38 nodes
Graph
01Indicators
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pillar
05Composite
100%
List
  1. Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total regulatory capital of the deposit-taking sector as a percentage of its risk-weighted assets, on the national implementation of the Basel framework.
  2. Capital to total assets (leverage)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Tier 1 capital of deposit takers as a percentage of total (unweighted) assets.
  3. Non-performing loans net of provisions to capital
    Indicator · IND · %
    Non-performing loans of deposit takers minus specific loan-loss provisions, as a percentage of capital.
  4. Return on assets
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net income before extraordinary items and taxes of deposit takers as a percentage of average total assets.
  5. Non-performing loans to total gross loans
    Indicator · IND · %
    Loans of deposit takers more than 90 days past due or otherwise impaired, as a percentage of total gross loans.
  6. Provisions to non-performing loans
    Indicator · IND · %
    Specific loan-loss provisions of deposit takers as a percentage of non-performing loans.
  7. Loan concentration by economic activity
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of deposit takers' loans to resident non-financial corporations held in the two largest economic activities (ISIC sections).
  8. Bank claims on general government, share of bank assets
    Indicator · IND · %
    Deposit takers' holdings of general government debt securities and loans to general government as a percentage of their total assets.
  9. Liquid assets to total assets
    Indicator · IND · %
    Core liquid assets of deposit takers (cash, central-bank reserves, short-term marketable securities) as a percentage of total assets.
  10. Liquid assets to short-term liabilities
    Indicator · IND · %
    Core liquid assets of deposit takers as a percentage of liabilities with residual maturity of one year or less.
  11. Customer deposits to total non-interbank loans
    Indicator · IND · %
    Customer (non-interbank) deposits of deposit takers as a percentage of their non-interbank loans.
  12. Liquidity coverage ratio
    Indicator · IND · %
    High-quality liquid assets of deposit takers as a percentage of total net cash outflows over a 30-day stress period, Basel III definition.
  13. Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Absolute value of deposit takers' net open position in foreign currencies (long or short, including off-balance-sheet) as a percentage of capital.
  14. Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Loans of deposit takers denominated in or indexed to foreign currency as a percentage of total loans.
  15. Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Deposits held with deposit takers in foreign currency as a percentage of total deposits.
  16. Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Deviation of the ratio of total credit to the private non-financial sector to GDP from its long-run trend (one-sided HP filter, lambda 400 000), in percentage points, quarterly.
  17. Real growth of credit to the private sector
    Indicator · IND · %
    Year-on-year growth of deposit takers' credit to the private sector, deflated by consumer prices.
  18. Household debt, share of GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Debt of households and non-profit institutions serving households (loans and debt securities) as a percentage of GDP.
  19. Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Debt of non-financial corporations (loans and debt securities) as a percentage of GDP.
  20. Real residential property price growth
    Indicator · IND · %
    Year-on-year change in the residential property price index deflated by consumer prices.
  21. House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run average
    Indicator · IND · %
    Ratio of nominal house prices to nominal disposable income per head, as a percentage deviation from its own long-run average.
  22. Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectors
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of deposit takers' loans to non-financial corporations extended to carbon-intensive activities (fossil-fuel extraction, refining, fossil power, cement, steel, chemicals, aviation and shipping), NACE-mapped.
  23. Bank lending exposed to high physical climate risk
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of deposit takers' loans whose borrower operations or collateral lie in locations of high modelled physical climate hazard (Hazard Standard flood, storm, heat, wildfire, coastal), current climate.
  24. Natural-catastrophe protection gap
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of economic losses from natural catastrophes not covered by insurance, ten-year rolling average.
  25. Volatility of real GDP growth (10-year)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual real GDP growth over the latest ten years with data.
  26. Consumer price inflation
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual percentage change in the consumer price index, period average.
  27. Exchange-rate volatility (36-month)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of month-on-month log changes of the local-currency per US dollar rate over 36 months, annualised.
  28. Unemployment rate
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the labour force without work but available for and seeking employment (ILO definition).
  29. Banking-sector solvency sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 22.2%
    Composite of regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets, capital to assets, unprovisioned NPLs to capital and return on assets.
  30. Asset-quality stress sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%
    Composite of the NPL ratio, provision coverage, sectoral loan concentration and bank exposure to the sovereign.
  31. Funding and liquidity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%
    Composite of liquid assets to total assets, liquid assets to short-term liabilities, deposits to loans and the liquidity coverage ratio.
  32. Foreign-exchange mismatch sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%
    Composite of the absolute net open FX position to capital and credit and deposit dollarisation.
  33. Credit and asset-price imbalance sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%
    Composite of the BIS credit-to-GDP gap, real private-credit growth, household and corporate debt, and real house-price growth and overvaluation.
  34. Climate-related financial exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 5.6%
    Composite of bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectors, lending exposed to high physical climate risk and the natural-catastrophe protection gap.
  35. Macroeconomic instability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 5.6%
    Composite of growth volatility, inflation, exchange-rate volatility and unemployment.
  36. Financial stability risk index
    Domain index · IDX · mazziotta pareto
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta-Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0-10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  37. Macro-financial and structural fragility
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  38. NXS-GRX Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. 28 indicators, 7 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order.
02Simulator

Run this index's own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate financial stability risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
runs in your browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index's published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) values.
03Method

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
71% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
expert
Aggregation
mazziotta pareto
Scale
0 to 10
Uncertainty
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; Mazziotta-Pareto index (2016); IMF FSI Compilation Guide (2019)
Very low0.0 to < 2.0
Low2.0 to < 3.5
Medium3.5 to < 5.0
High5.0 to < 6.5
Very high6.5 to 10.0
04Components

7 components, 28 indicators

Banking-sector solvency sub-index w 2

Composite of regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets, capital to assets, unprovisioned NPLs to capital and return on assets.

IndicatorUnitEvidenceSourcesShare
Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa%Class Aimf-fsi, national-supervisor25.0%
Capital to total assets (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets%Class Aimf-fsi, wb-wdi25.0%
Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital%Class Aimf-fsi, national-supervisor25.0%
Return on assetsIND.FIN.earnings.roa%Class Aimf-fsi, national-supervisor25.0%

Asset-quality stress sub-index w 1.5

Composite of the NPL ratio, provision coverage, sectoral loan concentration and bank exposure to the sovereign.

IndicatorUnitEvidenceSourcesShare
Non-performing loans to total gross loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio%Class Aimf-fsi, wb-wdi, national-supervisor37.5%
Provisions to non-performing loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl%Class Aimf-fsi, national-supervisor25.0%
Loan concentration by economic activityIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration%Class Aimf-fsi18.8%
Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure%Class Aimf-mfs, national-central-bank18.8%

Funding and liquidity sub-index w 1.5

Composite of liquid assets to total assets, liquid assets to short-term liabilities, deposits to loans and the liquidity coverage ratio.

IndicatorUnitEvidenceSourcesShare
Liquid assets to total assetsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total%Class Aimf-fsi, wb-wdi28.6%
Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities%Class Aimf-fsi, national-supervisor28.6%
Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans%Class Aimf-fsi28.6%
Liquidity coverage ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr%Class Aimf-fsi, national-supervisor14.3%

Foreign-exchange mismatch sub-index w 1.5

Composite of the absolute net open FX position to capital and credit and deposit dollarisation.

IndicatorUnitEvidenceSourcesShare
Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital%Class Aimf-fsi, national-supervisor33.3%
Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share%Class Aimf-fsi, national-central-bank33.3%
Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share%Class Aimf-mfs, national-central-bank, imf-fsi33.3%

Credit and asset-price imbalance sub-index w 1.5

Composite of the BIS credit-to-GDP gap, real private-credit growth, household and corporate debt, and real house-price growth and overvaluation.

IndicatorUnitEvidenceSourcesShare
Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap%Class Bbis-credit-gap25.0%
Real growth of credit to the private sectorIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth%Class Aimf-mfs, imf-fsi16.7%
Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp%Class Abis-credit, imf-gdd, imf-fsi16.7%
Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp%Class Abis-credit, imf-gdd, imf-fsi16.7%
Real residential property price growthIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth%Class Bbis-rpp, oecd-house-prices, imf-fsi12.5%
House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap%Class Boecd-house-prices, derived:bis-rpp12.5%

Climate-related financial exposure sub-index w 0.5

Composite of bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectors, lending exposed to high physical climate risk and the natural-catastrophe protection gap.

IndicatorUnitEvidenceSourcesShare
Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure%Class Dderived:national-supervisor-credit-register, ngfs-scenarios, bcbs-climate-disclosure-202533.3%
Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending%Class Ederived:nhs-1-hazard-layers, national-supervisor-credit-register, bcbs-climate-disclosure-202533.3%
Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap%Class Cswiss-re-sigma:licensed, munich-re-natcat:licensed, emdat, eiopa-protection-gap33.3%

Macroeconomic instability sub-index w 0.5

Composite of growth volatility, inflation, exchange-rate volatility and unemployment.

IndicatorUnitEvidenceSourcesShare
Volatility of real GDP growth (10-year)IND.MAC.output.growth_volatility%Class Aderived:nis:IND.MAC.output.real_gdp_growth25.0%
Consumer price inflationIND.MAC.prices.cpi_inflation%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-cpi25.0%
Exchange-rate volatility (36-month)IND.MAC.monetary.exchange_rate_volatility%Class Aderived:imf-ifs-exchange-rates25.0%
Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate%Class Cilo-ilostat, wb-wdi25.0%
05Domain

Financial system

Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk.

Sub-domainIndicators
Capital adequacy5
Asset quality4
Earnings2
Liquidity and funding5
Foreign-exchange risk3
Financial depth and inclusion6
Real estate2
Non-bank financial intermediation3
Climate-related financial exposure2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IMF FSI 2019 guide; BCBS climate disclosure 2025; NGFS scenarios.

06Indicators

All 32 financial system indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIN · 32
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.
IndicatorDomainSub-domainComponentUnitLevelsCrosswalks
Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwaFINCapital adequacycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwaFINCapital adequacycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
Common Equity Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwaFINCapital adequacycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSCET_PT
Capital to total assets (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assetsFINCapital adequacycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capitalFINCapital adequacyvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
Non-performing loans to total gross loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratioFINAsset qualityvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
Provisions to non-performing loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_nplFINAsset qualitycoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSPN_PT
Loan concentration by economic activityIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentrationFINAsset qualityvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposureFINAsset qualityvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
Return on assetsIND.FIN.earnings.roaFINEarningscoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSERA_PT
Return on equityIND.FIN.earnings.roeFINEarningscoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSERE_PT
Liquid assets to total assetsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_totalFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilitiesFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSLS_PT
Liquidity coverage ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.lcrFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
Net stable funding ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfrFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loansFINLiquidity and fundingcoping capacity%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSCD_PT
Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capitalFINForeign-exchange riskvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_shareFINForeign-exchange riskvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSFC_PT
Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_shareFINForeign-exchange riskvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
Domestic credit to the private sector, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdpFINFinancial depth and inclusioncontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gapFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRY
Real growth of credit to the private sectorIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growthFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdpFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdpFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownershipFINFinancial depth and inclusioncoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Real residential property price growthIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growthFINReal estatevulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gapFINReal estatevulnerability%COUNTRY, CITY
Assets of other financial corporations, share of GDPIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdpFINNon-bank financial intermediationcontext%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
Insurance penetration (premiums to GDP)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetrationFINNon-bank financial intermediationcoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gapFINNon-bank financial intermediationvulnerability%REGION, COUNTRY
Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposureFINClimate-related financial exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lendingFINClimate-related financial exposureexposure%COUNTRY
07Quote

Financial stability risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · FIN · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Financial stability risk index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Previous edition
—
Range since 2016
—
Coupled composite
—
Coupling score S
—
Pulse, latest week
—
Outlook, 12 months
—
Method
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws
1,000
Financial stability risk index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.
08Values

Country values

FIG 5 · Financial stability risk index: countries (values when released)
Loading the map
AndorraAntigua and BarbudaBahrainBarbadosComorosCabo VerdeDominicaMicronesia (Federated States of)GrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaLiechtensteinMonacoMaldivesMarshall IslandsMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingaporeSan MarinoSao Tome and PrincipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluHoly SeeSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index's classes with each country's interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/fin/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Observation key
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
IMF_FSI19
WB_WDI5
IMF_WEO1
SDG1
ILO1
11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Financial stability risk index (GRX-IDX-FIN), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/financial-stability-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000121.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.