The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX solutions · Public sector

Multilaterals and development banks

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

Page GRX-SOL-MULTILATERALEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
on: scenario run requested · Run a scenario or stress test7 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Choose the scenario familyinstant
  2. Configure shocks and horizonself-serve
  3. Model runs3 hours
  4. Coupling propagation1 hour
  5. Tail and exceedance1 hour
  6. Results and driversinstant
  7. Analyst sign-off2 days
01Need

What this solution does

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

Screen country and project context

Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps

Design pre-arranged finance questions

02Featured run

Run a scenario or stress test

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

on: scenario run requested
Run a scenario or stress test
In progressTriggered by Risk analyst7 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job
Graph
01Design
02Design
03Run
04Propagate
05Read
06Read
100%
Timeline
Job0 h10 h20 h30 h40 h50 hTarget
Choose the scenario familyYouinstant
Configure shocks and horizonYouinstant
Model runsModel Lab3 h
Coupling propagationDependency network1 h
Tail and exceedanceModel Lab1 h
Results and driversYouinstant
Analyst sign-offYour reviewer2 d

End to end on the longest path: about 2.2 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Choose the scenario family
    Design · You · instant
    Warming, socio-economic or transition families · Or a structured shock: fiscal, compound hazard, supply
    Model Lab
  2. Configure shocks and horizon
    Design · You · self-serve
    Shock size, timing and entry points · Horizon to 2030, 2050 or 2100
    Model LabTested model kernels
  3. Model runs matrix · entities × scenarios × draws
    Run · Model Lab · 3 hours
    Kernels from the method library · Seeds recorded per run
    Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engine
  4. Coupling propagation
    Propagate · Dependency network · 1 hour
    DebtRank and threshold cascades · Cross-border spillovers
    Dependency networkTested model kernels
  5. Tail and exceedance
    Propagate · Model Lab · 1 hour
    Exceedance curves · 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 losses · Expected shortfall
    Monte Carlo engine
  6. Results and drivers
    Read · You · instant
    Fan charts against class bounds · Driver decomposition · Export with citation
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  7. Analyst sign-off approval
    Read · Your reviewer · 2 days
    Assumptions and limits recorded
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
Artifacts
ArtifactJobWhoStage
Scenario specChoose the scenario familyYouDesign
Run configConfigure shocks and horizonYouDesign
Run record with seed and digestModel runsModel LabRun
Cascade pathsCoupling propagationDependency networkPropagate
Tail reportTail and exceedanceModel LabPropagate
Results packResults and driversYouRead
Sign-offAnalyst sign-offYour reviewerRead
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateMatrix jobYou are here
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is an illustration, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
05Series

Series most read

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-01Global WaterAccess, scarcity, quality, floods and droughts, groundwater depletion, transboundary dependency and the couplings of water to energy, food, health and nature.GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways.GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk.GS-06Global DevelopmentPoverty, inequality, human development, demographic pressure and displacement as the ground on which shocks become losses.GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.GS-08Global DisasterMulti-hazard exposure, disaster losses and mortality, return-period losses, protection gaps and coping capacity.GS-09Global InfrastructureInfrastructure fragility, service continuity, interdependency of power, water, transport and telecommunications, and investment exposure.

Talk to the Secretariat

Enterprise, public-sector and sovereign work is agreed with GCRI Canada.