The Global Risks Index
Hazard Standard · health · 124 hazards

Health and biosecurity

Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems.

Page GRX-HAZ-HEALTHEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
Hazard Standard · Health and biosecurity
origin
hybrid88
anthropogenic24
natural12
onset
progressive38
rapid33
slow27
creeping25
instantaneous1
predictability
statistical78
seasonal22
unpredictable14
forecastable5
nowcast-only5
21
families
124
hazards
260
relations
76
risk-class tags
01Families

21 families, 124 hazards

Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. Organised by biosphere; families by transmission route and host.

Airborne and respiratory infection health.respiratory

Infections spread through the air between people: the fastest-moving and widest-reaching outbreak type, so each hazard here is read at country scale or larger.

Respiratory pandemichealth.respiratory.pandemic

Worldwide spread of a respiratory virus to which most people have little immunity, overwhelming health systems and disrupting economies.

Also: novel virus pandemic, pandemic influenza

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExponential risk
Seasonal influenza epidemichealth.respiratory.seasonal-influenza

Yearly waves of influenza that fill clinics and hospitals and kill mainly the elderly and the frail.

Also: flu season

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · seasonal
Zoonotic influenza spilloverhealth.respiratory.zoonotic-influenza

Influenza viruses from birds or pigs infecting people, with the risk of adapting to spread from person to person.

Also: avian influenza in people, swine influenza

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Coronavirus outbreakhealth.respiratory.coronavirus-outbreak

An outbreak of a severe or novel coronavirus with person-to-person spread and a risk of severe respiratory illness.

Also: SARS-type outbreak, MERS-type outbreak, COVID-type outbreak

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · unpredictable
Tuberculosis surgehealth.respiratory.tuberculosis-surge

Rising or drug-resistant tuberculosis, a slowly spreading airborne bacterial disease, often in crowded or poor settings.

Also: drug-resistant tuberculosis

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Bacterial meningitis outbreakhealth.respiratory.bacterial-meningitis

Clusters of meningitis from bacteria spread by close contact, which kills quickly without treatment and recurs in dry-season belts.

Also: meningococcal outbreak

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal

Vaccine-preventable outbreaks health.vaccine-preventable

Outbreaks that exist only where immunisation has failed: grouped by system role, since the common driver is a coverage gap rather than the pathogen.

Measles outbreakhealth.vaccine-preventable.measles-outbreak

Spread of the highly contagious measles virus among under-vaccinated groups, with complications and deaths in children.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Polio outbreakhealth.vaccine-preventable.polio-outbreak

Transmission of poliovirus, including vaccine-derived strains, causing paralysis where immunisation is low.

Also: poliovirus

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Diphtheria and whooping cough outbreakhealth.vaccine-preventable.bacterial-vaccine-preventable

Resurgence of toxin-mediated diphtheria or epidemic whooping cough, most dangerous to infants, where immunity has lapsed.

Also: diphtheria, pertussis

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Other vaccine-preventable outbreakhealth.vaccine-preventable.other-vaccine-preventable

An outbreak of another disease that vaccines prevent, such as mumps, rubella or varicella, after an immunisation gap.

Also: mumps, rubella, chickenpox

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical

Faecal-oral and foodborne infection health.enteric

Infections spread by contaminated water, food and hands: they follow floods, sanitation failure, displacement and food distribution, so they are strongly linked to water and infrastructure hazards.

Cholera outbreakhealth.enteric.cholera-outbreak

Acute watery diarrhoea from Vibrio cholerae in contaminated water, killing within hours without rehydration.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Typhoid and paratyphoid feverhealth.enteric.enteric-fever

Systemic Salmonella infection from contaminated food and water, endemic where sanitation is poor.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Shigellosis and dysentery outbreakhealth.enteric.shigellosis

Bloody diarrhoea from Shigella spreading through contaminated water, food and close contact.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Viral diarrhoea outbreakhealth.enteric.viral-diarrhoea

Rotavirus, norovirus and similar viruses causing vomiting and diarrhoea, especially in children, institutions and camps.

Also: rotavirus, norovirus

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Faecal-oral hepatitis outbreakhealth.enteric.hepatitis-a-e

Hepatitis A or E virus spreading through contaminated water and food, often after floods or in displacement camps.

Also: hepatitis A, hepatitis E

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Foodborne illness outbreakhealth.enteric.foodborne-outbreak

A cluster of illness traced to a common contaminated food, which can span regions through distribution networks.

Also: food poisoning outbreak, listeria, salmonella, E. coli outbreak

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictable
Waterborne disease outbreakhealth.enteric.waterborne-outbreak

A cluster of illness from drinking or contact with contaminated water, often after floods, treatment failure or mains breaks.

Also: cryptosporidium outbreak, drinking water outbreak

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical

Vector-borne infection health.vector-borne

Infections carried by insects, ticks and other vectors: climate, land use and water management set where and when they occur, so they respond to atmospheric and water hazards with a lag.

Dengue epidemichealth.vector-borne.dengue-epidemic

Mosquito-borne dengue virus waves in warm, urban areas, with a risk of severe illness on repeat infection.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Chikungunya and Zika outbreakhealth.vector-borne.aedes-arbovirus

Viruses such as chikungunya and Zika spreading where Aedes mosquitoes breed, causing joint pain and birth defects.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Yellow fever outbreakhealth.vector-borne.yellow-fever

A mosquito-borne haemorrhagic virus, preventable by vaccination, that flares in forest and urban cycles.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
West Nile and Culex-borne virus outbreakhealth.vector-borne.culex-arbovirus

Bird-reservoir viruses, such as West Nile, spread by Culex mosquitoes and causing neurological disease in late summer.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Malaria resurgencehealth.vector-borne.malaria-resurgence

Rising malaria transmission after climate shifts, conflict, funding gaps or drug and insecticide resistance.

Also: malaria

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · seasonal
Plague outbreakhealth.vector-borne.plague-outbreak

A flea-borne bacterial disease from rodent reservoirs, bubonic or pneumonic, lethal without antibiotics.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictable
Trypanosomiasis outbreakhealth.vector-borne.trypanosomiasis

Sleeping sickness or Chagas disease carried by tsetse flies or triatomine bugs, with an animal form that kills livestock.

Also: sleeping sickness, Chagas disease

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Tick-borne disease surgehealth.vector-borne.tick-borne

Rising Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis and related infections as ticks spread into new areas.

Also: Lyme disease

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Neglected tropical disease outbreakhealth.vector-borne.neglected-tropical-surge

Resurgence of parasitic, bacterial and viral diseases of poverty, such as leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis and leprosy, in neglected populations.

Also: leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, leprosy

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Emerging arbovirus outbreakhealth.vector-borne.emerging-arbovirus

Outbreaks of insect-borne viruses that were rare or local and are now spreading to new populations, often with little testing and no vaccine.

Also: Oropouche outbreak, novel mosquito-borne virus, midge-borne virus outbreak

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk

Haemorrhagic fever health.haemorrhagic

Severe viral fevers with bleeding and high fatality, spread by body fluids, rodents or ticks, where care settings and funerals amplify outbreaks.

Ebola and Marburg outbreakhealth.haemorrhagic.filovirus

Highly lethal filovirus outbreaks spread by body fluids and in care settings, needing isolation and rapid contact tracing.

Also: Ebola, Marburg

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictable
Lassa fever outbreakhealth.haemorrhagic.lassa-fever

A rodent-borne arenavirus fever, seasonal in West Africa, spread by contaminated food and in health facilities.

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever outbreakhealth.haemorrhagic.crimean-congo

A tick-borne virus reaching farmers, abattoir workers and health staff through livestock and body fluids.

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal

Blood-borne and sexually transmitted infection health.bloodborne

Infections spread through blood and intimate contact: slow, chronic and shaped by service access, so they behave as long-running burdens rather than events.

HIV epidemichealth.bloodborne.hiv-epidemic

Sustained HIV transmission that, untreated, destroys immunity, driven by gaps in access, stigma and exclusion of key populations.

Also: AIDS

Origin · naturalOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burdenhealth.bloodborne.viral-hepatitis-bc

Long-term blood-borne hepatitis infections that cause liver cancer and failure, spread through unsafe injections, transfusions and birth.

Origin · naturalOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Sexually transmitted infection resurgencehealth.bloodborne.sti-resurgence

Rising syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia, including drug-resistant strains, when testing and prevention lapse.

Also: syphilis, gonorrhoea

Origin · naturalOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical

Animal-to-human spillover health.zoonotic

Infections that cross from animals to people through farming, wildlife contact, trade or the environment; they sit between the human, animal and ecosystem health sectors, so they link to the animal-health and ecosystem families.

Zoonotic spillover eventhealth.zoonotic.spillover-event

A pathogen crossing from animals to people, through wildlife trade, farming, hunting or habitat change, with the potential to establish human transmission.

Also: emerging zoonosis, Q fever, cysticercosis

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskEmerging riskExponential risk
Anthrax outbreakhealth.zoonotic.anthrax-outbreak

A spore-forming bacterial disease of livestock and wildlife that infects people through contact with carcasses, hides and meat.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Brucellosis outbreakhealth.zoonotic.brucellosis-outbreak

A bacterial infection passed from livestock to people through raw milk and animal contact, causing long fevers.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Rabies outbreakhealth.zoonotic.rabies-outbreak

A fatal viral disease spread by bites from infected dogs and wildlife, preventable by vaccinating animals and giving post-exposure care.

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Leptospirosis outbreakhealth.zoonotic.leptospirosis-outbreak

A rodent-urine bacterial infection spreading in floodwater and wet farmland, causing fever and kidney and liver failure.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Mpox outbreakhealth.zoonotic.mpox-outbreak

A poxvirus passing from animals to people and then by close contact, with painful lesions and added risk for the immunocompromised.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Rift Valley fever outbreakhealth.zoonotic.rift-valley-fever

A mosquito- and contact-borne virus causing livestock abortion storms and human fever after heavy rain in dry regions.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Nipah and henipavirus outbreakhealth.zoonotic.henipavirus

Bat-borne viruses that jump to people via contaminated food or animals and cause deadly brain infections.

Also: Nipah

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal

Rare and persistent human infections health.other-human

Low-frequency infections whose risk is dominated by consequence: contact-transmitted or slow-incubating agents that need special surveillance.

Prion disease clusterhealth.other-human.prion-disease

A cluster of fatal, untreatable brain diseases caused by misfolded proteins, linked to food, medical procedures or animal feed.

Also: mad cow disease

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictable
Smallpox reintroductionhealth.other-human.smallpox-return

Return of an eradicated, highly lethal poxvirus from a laboratory or a deliberate release into a population with no immunity.

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · unpredictable

Livestock and aquaculture epizootics health.animal-health

Transboundary disease of farmed animals: the hazard is the culling, trade closure and food-supply shock that follow, so the family is read with food and economy contexts.

Swine fever epizootichealth.animal-health.swine-fever

African or classical swine fever sweeping pig herds, with mass culls, trade bans and little or no treatment.

Also: African swine fever, classical swine fever

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Foot-and-mouth epizootichealth.animal-health.foot-and-mouth

A highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals that halts livestock trade and forces culls.

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Ruminant respiratory epizootichealth.animal-health.ruminant-respiratory

Pleuropneumonia or plague outbreaks among cattle, goats and sheep that kill herds and threaten pastoral livelihoods.

Also: pleuropneumonia, small ruminant plague

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Vector-borne livestock diseasehealth.animal-health.vector-livestock-disease

Insect-transmitted livestock diseases, such as lumpy skin disease, that spread with biting flies and seasonal climate.

Also: lumpy skin disease

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Poultry epizootichealth.animal-health.poultry-epizootic

Newcastle disease or avian influenza sweeping poultry flocks, with mass culling and shocks to egg and meat supply.

Also: Newcastle disease, avian flu in flocks

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Screwworm infestationhealth.animal-health.screwworm-infestation

Flesh-eating fly larvae infesting wounds of livestock, wildlife and people, spreading with animal trade and warmth.

Also: myiasis

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Aquaculture disease outbreakhealth.animal-health.aquaculture-disease

Pathogens, such as shellfish and shrimp diseases, spreading through farmed stocks and killing them in large numbers.

Also: shrimp disease, oyster disease

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Livestock disease outbreakhealth.animal-health.livestock-disease

An outbreak of a non-zoonotic animal disease not covered by a more specific hazard, cutting herd health and output.

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical

Plant disease and pests health.plant-health

Threats to crop and wild plant health from microbes, insects and invading species; the impact reaches food and ecosystem contexts.

Bacterial and fungal crop diseasehealth.plant-health.crop-disease

Epidemics of bacterial or fungal plant disease, such as rusts and blights, that destroy yields over large areas.

Also: rust, blight, wilt

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Plant virus epidemichealth.plant-health.plant-virus

Viral, phytoplasma or viroid disease spread by insects and cuttings that stunts crops and has no cure.

Also: phytoplasma, viroid

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Crop insect pest outbreakhealth.plant-health.insect-pest-outbreak

Population explosions of insect pests that strip crops and stored grain over wide areas.

Also: armyworm, pest infestation

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Locust swarmhealth.plant-health.locust-swarm

Dense migrating swarms of locusts that devour crops and pasture across borders.

Also: desert locust

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · forecastable
Invasive species spreadhealth.plant-health.invasive-species

A non-native plant, animal or microbe spreading unchecked and displacing natives, damaging farming, fisheries and ecosystems.

Also: invasive weed, alien species

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskExponential risk

Systemic biological risks health.systemic-bio

Risks that weaken the whole defence against infection or release agents deliberately; they raise the consequence of every other health hazard.

Antimicrobial resistancehealth.systemic-bio.antimicrobial-resistance

Spread of microbes that no longer respond to medicines, making routine infections and surgery dangerous.

Also: drug-resistant infection, superbug

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExponential risk
Deliberate or accidental biological-agent releasehealth.systemic-bio.biological-agent-release

Intentional or accidental release of a pathogen or toxin, as a weapon or from a research, vaccine or production setting.

Also: bioterrorism, laboratory escape

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExistential riskFrontier technology risk

Environmental and product harm to people health.harm

Direct, non-infectious harm that arrives through the environment or the marketplace; grouped by system role because each is a failure of a protective system (wildlife safety, medicine quality, alcohol and drug control).

Snakebite envenominghealth.harm.snakebite

Bites from venomous snakes that kill or maim farm workers and children where antivenom and transport are scarce, and rise when floods push snakes into homes.

Also: snake bite

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · statistical
Substandard and falsified medicineshealth.harm.substandard-medicines

Medical products of poor quality or deliberately fake that fail to treat illness, cause poisoning and drive drug resistance.

Also: counterfeit medicine

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Adulterated alcohol poisoninghealth.harm.toxic-alcohol

Mass poisoning from drinks adulterated with methanol or other toxic industrial alcohols.

Also: methanol poisoning

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · unpredictable
Overdose epidemichealth.harm.overdose-epidemic

Waves of deaths from opioids and other addictive substances, driven by potent synthetics and gaps in treatment.

Also: opioid crisis

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical

Climate-sensitive illness health.climate-sensitive

Illness that rises directly with weather and climate, as distinct from the weather hazards themselves; health systems warn and act on these through heat-health, allergy and vector programmes.

Heat-related illness surgehealth.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge

A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.

Also: heatstroke surge, heat exhaustion, heat-related deaths

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastableGlobal risk
Cold-related illness surgehealth.climate-sensitive.cold-illness-surge

A rise in hypothermia, heart attacks, strokes and respiratory illness during cold spells, worst among people in poorly heated homes or without shelter.

Also: hypothermia, excess winter deaths

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastable
Disease vector range expansionhealth.climate-sensitive.vector-range-expansion

Spread of mosquitoes, ticks and other disease carriers into higher latitudes and altitudes as climate warms and trade moves them, exposing new populations to infection.

Also: invasive mosquito spread, tick range expansion, vector shift to higher latitudes

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Aeroallergen season intensificationhealth.climate-sensitive.aeroallergen-intensification

Longer and stronger pollen seasons and spread of allergenic plants under warming and higher carbon dioxide, worsening allergy and asthma.

Also: pollen surge, hay fever season lengthening, allergenic pollen

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · continentPredictability · seasonalEmerging risk
Warm-water bacterial infectionhealth.climate-sensitive.warm-water-bacterial-infection

Severe wound and gut infections from bacteria that thrive in warming coastal and brackish waters, spreading to coasts where they were once rare.

Also: vibriosis, seawater wound infection

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonalEmerging risk

Drug and insecticide resistance by pathogen class health.drug-resistance

Loss of the medicines and insecticides that control infection, split by broad class of organism so that each can be tracked; together they erode modern medicine.

Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spreadhealth.drug-resistance.resistant-bacterial-infection

Spread of bacterial infections that resist most or all available antibiotics, turning common infections, childbirth and surgery into life-threatening events.

Also: last-resort antibiotic resistance, pan-resistant bacteria

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExponential risk
Antiviral drug resistancehealth.drug-resistance.antiviral-resistance

Viruses that no longer respond to standard antiviral medicines, causing treatment failure and onward spread of resistant strains.

Also: HIV drug resistance, antiviral failure

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Antimalarial and antiparasitic drug resistancehealth.drug-resistance.antiparasitic-resistance

Parasites that escape the medicines used to cure malaria and other parasitic diseases, raising deaths and threatening elimination efforts.

Also: antimalarial resistance, treatment-resistant malaria

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Antifungal drug resistancehealth.drug-resistance.antifungal-resistance

Fungal infections that resist the few available antifungal medicines, partly driven by fungicide use in farming, leaving vulnerable patients without treatment.

Also: drug-resistant fungal infection

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Insecticide resistance in disease vectorshealth.drug-resistance.insecticide-resistance

Mosquitoes and other vectors that survive the insecticides used in bed nets and spraying, weakening control of malaria, dengue and other diseases.

Also: mosquito insecticide resistance, vector control failure

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Antimicrobial development and supply failurehealth.drug-resistance.antimicrobial-pipeline-failure

Too few new antimicrobials reaching patients, and fragile supply of old ones, because development is unprofitable, leaving resistance to outpace treatment.

Also: empty antibiotic pipeline, antibiotic shortage

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk

Emerging and unknown infection threats health.emerging

Infection threats defined by novelty or by the setting in which they spread rather than by a known agent; grouped because they need early detection and broad readiness rather than agent-specific plans.

Unknown future pathogen emergencehealth.emerging.unknown-pathogen-emergence

Emergence of a not-yet-known infectious disease, by any route of spread, able to cause a serious international epidemic before tests, treatments or vaccines exist.

Also: Disease X, pathogen X, novel pathogen epidemic

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskCatastrophic riskEmerging riskExponential risk
Emerging fungal pathogenhealth.emerging.fungal-pathogen-emergence

New or newly dangerous fungal infections in people, often hard to diagnose and treat, spreading in hospitals and among people with weakened immunity as climate and medicine change.

Also: emerging fungal disease, invasive fungal infection outbreak

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Endemic fungal disease range expansionhealth.emerging.endemic-fungal-range-expansion

Spread of soil-living fungal diseases into new regions as warming and drying shift their habitat, causing lung infections where doctors are unprepared.

Also: valley fever spread, soil fungus range shift

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk
Healthcare-associated infection outbreakhealth.emerging.healthcare-associated-outbreak

Outbreaks of infection that spread within hospitals, clinics or care homes through contaminated equipment, hands or water, harming already vulnerable patients.

Also: hospital-acquired infection outbreak, nosocomial outbreak, care-home outbreak

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · nowcast-only
Undiagnosed illness clusterhealth.emerging.undiagnosed-illness-cluster

A cluster of serious illness or deaths with no identified cause, needing rapid investigation because it may signal a new infection or poisoning.

Also: unknown disease cluster, mystery illness

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · unpredictableEmerging risk

Maternal, newborn and child health emergencies health.maternal-child

Failures in the care that protects pregnancy, birth and early childhood; they sit together because the same services, supplies and staff guard against all of them.

Maternal mortality risehealth.maternal-child.maternal-mortality-rise

A rise in deaths of women during pregnancy and childbirth when skilled birth care, blood, emergency surgery or transport become unavailable.

Also: maternal death surge, obstetric emergency care loss

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Newborn mortality surgehealth.maternal-child.newborn-mortality-surge

An increase in deaths of babies in their first month from infection, birth complications and prematurity when newborn care breaks down.

Also: neonatal death surge, neonatal sepsis

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Preterm and low birthweight birth risehealth.maternal-child.adverse-birth-outcome-rise

More babies born early, small or stillborn as heat, air pollution, malnutrition and stress affect pregnancies, with lifelong effects on survivors.

Also: preterm birth rise, low birthweight, stillbirth rise

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk
Childhood immunisation coverage collapsehealth.maternal-child.immunisation-coverage-collapse

A fall in routine childhood vaccination because services, outreach or funding fail, leaving cohorts of unprotected children and seeding outbreaks.

Also: zero-dose children, missed vaccinations, routine immunisation backsliding

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Infant feeding disruptionhealth.maternal-child.infant-feeding-disruption

Loss of safe infant feeding when breastfeeding support collapses, formula runs short or safe water is lost, putting infants at risk of malnutrition and infection.

Also: infant formula shortage, breastfeeding disruption

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · nowcast-only
Reproductive health service disruptionhealth.maternal-child.reproductive-service-disruption

Loss of contraception, antenatal care and safe delivery services in crises or funding cuts, leading to unintended pregnancies, unsafe births and maternal deaths.

Also: contraceptive stockout, family planning service loss

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical

Mental health crises health.mental

Population-level rises in psychological distress and mental illness that follow shocks, isolation or social change; grouped because they share drivers and the same thin care systems.

Population mental distress surgehealth.mental.population-distress-surge

A sharp rise in anxiety, depression and distress across a population after a pandemic, war, economic collapse or disaster, overwhelming scarce mental health services.

Also: collective trauma, mass psychological distress, Population mental-health crisis, mental health emergency, psychological trauma burden

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Post-disaster traumatic stresshealth.mental.post-disaster-trauma

Lasting traumatic stress and grief among survivors, responders and displaced people after disasters or violence, impairing recovery, work and family life.

Also: post-traumatic stress, disaster trauma, PTSD after disaster

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Suicide rate risehealth.mental.suicide-rate-rise

A sustained rise in suicide across a population or group, often linked to economic hardship, isolation, debt, heat or access to lethal means.

Also: suicide epidemic, rising suicide deaths

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Youth mental health crisishealth.mental.youth-mental-health-crisis

Rising depression, anxiety, self-harm and eating disorders among children and young people, linked to social pressures, online harms and disrupted schooling.

Also: adolescent mental health crisis, child mental health emergency

Origin · hybridOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Climate-related psychological distresshealth.mental.climate-distress

Anxiety, grief and loss of wellbeing tied to climate change and the loss of home places, worst among young people and communities facing repeated disasters.

Also: eco-anxiety, solastalgia, climate grief

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Social isolation and loneliness epidemichealth.mental.social-isolation-epidemic

Widespread loneliness and loss of social contact, especially among older and young people, raising the risk of depression, dementia, heart disease and early death.

Also: loneliness epidemic, social disconnection, Social isolation and loneliness

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Mass psychogenic illness outbreakhealth.mental.mass-psychogenic-illness

Rapid spread of real physical symptoms through a group, such as a school or workplace, without a toxic or infectious cause, driven by fear and social transmission.

Also: mass sociogenic illness, epidemic hysteria

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · districtPredictability · unpredictable
Gambling harm surgehealth.mental.gambling-harm-surge

A rise in addictive and harmful gambling, accelerated by online and mobile betting, causing debt, family breakdown, depression and suicide.

Also: online gambling harm, problem gambling

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk

Noncommunicable disease surges health.ncd

Long-running rises in chronic, non-infectious disease driven by diet, tobacco, pollution, ageing and gaps in care; they build slowly but carry most of the world's illness burden.

Cardiovascular disease surgehealth.ncd.cardiovascular-surge

Rising rates of heart attack, stroke and high blood pressure, driven by diet, inactivity, pollution and untreated risk factors, causing early death and disability.

Also: heart attack and stroke surge, hypertension epidemic, high blood pressure burden, Rising non-communicable disease burden, NCD epidemic, obesity epidemic, chronic disease surge

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Diabetes epidemichealth.ncd.diabetes-epidemic

Fast growth in diabetes across populations, leading to blindness, kidney failure, amputation and heart disease where screening and treatment lag behind.

Also: type 2 diabetes epidemic, diabetes surge

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Obesity epidemichealth.ncd.obesity-epidemic

Population-wide rise in excess body weight from food environments and sedentary living, raising the risk of diabetes, heart disease, cancers and joint disease.

Also: overweight epidemic, childhood obesity

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Cancer burden risehealth.ncd.cancer-burden-rise

Growing numbers of cancer cases from ageing, tobacco, infection, pollution and lifestyle, outpacing diagnosis and treatment capacity and causing avoidable deaths.

Also: cancer surge, rising cancer incidence

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Chronic respiratory disease burdenhealth.ncd.chronic-respiratory-burden

Lasting lung disease such as chronic obstructive disease and asthma, worsened by smoke, dust and air pollution, causing breathlessness, hospital stays and early death.

Also: COPD, chronic obstructive lung disease, asthma burden

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Chronic kidney disease surgehealth.ncd.chronic-kidney-disease

Rising chronic kidney damage, including clusters among outdoor workers linked to heat, dehydration and toxicants, that leads to kidney failure where dialysis is scarce.

Also: kidney disease of unknown cause, heat-stress nephropathy

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk
Dementia burden growthhealth.ncd.dementia-burden

Growing numbers of people living with dementia as populations age, straining families, long-term care systems and health budgets for years.

Also: Alzheimer's disease burden, neurodegenerative disease rise

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Post-infection chronic illnesshealth.ncd.post-infection-chronic-illness

Long-lasting fatigue, organ damage or disability that follows an infection wave, removing people from work and school and adding a hidden care burden.

Also: long COVID, post-viral fatigue, post-acute infection syndrome

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging risk
Tobacco and nicotine use epidemichealth.ncd.tobacco-nicotine-epidemic

Widespread use of tobacco and nicotine products, including new products taken up by young people, that drives cancer, heart and lung disease.

Also: smoking epidemic, vaping uptake, nicotine addiction

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Harmful alcohol use burdenhealth.ncd.harmful-alcohol-use

Heavy and harmful drinking across a population that causes liver disease, cancers, injuries, violence and family harm.

Also: alcohol-related harm, binge drinking

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Chronic care interruptionhealth.ncd.chronic-care-interruption

Sudden loss of ongoing treatment such as dialysis, insulin or cancer care during a disaster, conflict or shortage, turning stable chronic illness into emergencies.

Also: dialysis interruption, insulin access loss, treatment interruption

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · nowcast-only

Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency health.nutrition

Harm to health from too little, too much or the wrong food; distinct from the food crises that cause it, because these are the bodily conditions that health and nutrition systems track and treat.

Acute malnutrition surgehealth.nutrition.acute-malnutrition-surge

A rapid rise in dangerous weight loss among young children and other vulnerable people during food crises, disease outbreaks or conflict, sharply raising the risk of death.

Also: wasting, severe acute malnutrition, child wasting surge

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonalGlobal risk
Chronic undernutrition and stuntinghealth.nutrition.chronic-undernutrition

Long-term poor nutrition and repeated infection in early childhood that stunt growth and brain development, reducing lifelong health, learning and earnings.

Also: stunting, child growth failure

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Micronutrient deficiencyhealth.nutrition.micronutrient-deficiency

Widespread lack of essential vitamins and minerals in diets, causing anaemia, blindness, weakened immunity and birth defects even where calories are sufficient.

Also: hidden hunger, vitamin A deficiency, iron-deficiency anaemia, zinc deficiency

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Nutritional deficiency disease outbreakhealth.nutrition.deficiency-disease-outbreak

Outbreaks of classic deficiency diseases in camps, prisons or aid-dependent populations living on narrow rations, causing nerve, skin and heart damage.

Also: scurvy outbreak, pellagra outbreak, beriberi outbreak

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · districtPredictability · statistical
Unhealthy diet transitionhealth.nutrition.unhealthy-diet-transition

A shift in national diets towards highly processed foods high in sugar, salt and fat, driving obesity and chronic disease alongside persistent undernutrition.

Also: ultra-processed diet shift, nutrition transition

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Crop nutrient declinehealth.nutrition.crop-nutrient-decline

Loss of protein, iron and zinc in staple crops grown under higher carbon dioxide and heat, quietly deepening deficiency in populations that rely on those staples.

Also: falling food nutrient density, carbon dioxide nutrient dilution

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging riskPlanetary risk

Occupational disease and injury health.occupational

Harm that arises from exposure at work; grouped together because workplace standards, inspection and compensation systems are the main line of defence against each.

Occupational lung diseasehealth.occupational.occupational-lung-disease

Scarring and disease of the lungs from breathing mineral dusts, fibres or fumes at work, including resurgent silicosis among stone workers, causing disability and death.

Also: silicosis, pneumoconiosis, engineered stone silicosis, black lung

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · permanentFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk
Occupational heat strainhealth.occupational.occupational-heat-strain

Heat stress among outdoor and factory workers that causes collapse, kidney injury, accidents and lost working hours as hot days become more common.

Also: worker heat stress, outdoor worker heat illness

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastableGlobal riskEmerging risk
Occupational cancerhealth.occupational.occupational-cancer

Cancers caused by exposure at work to carcinogenic dusts, chemicals, fumes, radiation or night shifts, often appearing decades after exposure.

Also: work-related cancer, workplace carcinogen exposure

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Occupational chemical poisoninghealth.occupational.occupational-chemical-poisoning

Acute or chronic poisoning of workers by solvents, metals, fumigants or other industrial chemicals through poor controls, protective equipment or ventilation.

Also: solvent poisoning, workplace poisoning

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · districtPredictability · statistical
Workplace injury burdenhealth.occupational.workplace-injury-burden

Deaths and disabling injuries from falls, machinery, vehicles and collapses at work, highest in construction, farming, fishing and informal labour.

Also: occupational injury, work accidents, fatal work injury

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · instantaneousDuration · momentaryFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical

Health system capacity failure health.system

Slow or sudden loss of the people, money, trust and information that a health system runs on; each raises the toll of every disease hazard.

Health workforce shortagehealth.system.health-workforce-shortage

Too few doctors, nurses, midwives and community health workers because of burnout, migration, low pay or deaths, leaving services unstaffed and care delayed.

Also: health worker exodus, clinician burnout, nurse shortage

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Health worker industrial actionhealth.system.health-worker-strike

Prolonged strikes or walkouts by health staff that suspend clinics, surgery and outreach, delaying care for large populations.

Also: doctors' strike, nurses' strike

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · forecastable
Health financing collapsehealth.system.health-financing-collapse

Sudden loss of public, donor or insurance funding for health that closes programmes, cuts medicine supply and halts disease control.

Also: health aid cuts, donor withdrawal, health budget collapse

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendinghealth.system.catastrophic-health-spending

Households pushed into poverty by direct payments for care, or forced to forgo treatment, as costs rise or financial protection is withdrawn.

Also: medical impoverishment, health cost crisis

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statistical
Vaccine confidence collapsehealth.system.vaccine-confidence-collapse

Loss of public trust in vaccines, fed by misinformation, politicisation or a safety scare, that lowers uptake and lets eliminated diseases return.

Also: vaccine hesitancy, anti-vaccine movement, vaccine refusal

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskExponential risk
Essential health service disruptionhealth.system.essential-service-disruption

Interruption of routine services such as primary care, screening, immunisation and disease programmes during crises, causing excess deaths that outlast the crisis.

Also: primary care collapse, routine service disruption

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · countryPredictability · nowcast-only
Disease surveillance failurehealth.system.disease-surveillance-failure

Loss or neglect of the systems that detect and report outbreaks, so epidemics grow unseen and responses start late.

Also: surveillance blind spot, outbreak detection failure

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · countryPredictability · statisticalGlobal risk
Health facility loss of functionhealth.system.health-facility-failure

Hospitals and clinics that stop working because of flooding, fire, power or water loss or structural damage, forcing evacuation of patients when need is highest.

Also: hospital evacuation, hospital shutdown

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · cityPredictability · nowcast-only
Global health cooperation breakdownhealth.system.global-health-cooperation-breakdown

Erosion of international agreements, funding and data sharing for health, weakening joint outbreak response and leaving countries to face epidemics alone.

Also: withdrawal from international health cooperation, pandemic preparedness gap

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · unpredictableGlobal riskEmerging risk
02Relations

260 expert relations

Triggers, amplifications, compound pairs and reductions from the Hazard Standard expert model; 59 lead out of this domain into others.

FromKindToMechanismConfidence
Tropical cyclonetriggerDengue epidemicstanding water and displacement raise mosquito exposurelow
Tropical cyclonetriggerLeptospirosis outbreakfloodwater contact with contaminated soillow
Tropical cyclonetriggerLocust swarmcyclone rain creates breeding conditionsmedium
Intense rainfallamplifyDengue epidemicstanding water adds mosquito breeding sitesmedium
Intense rainfallamplifyRift Valley fever outbreakflooded ground hatches infected mosquito eggsmedium
Intense rainfallamplifyMalaria resurgencepools lengthen the transmission seasonmedium
Intense rainfallamplifyBacterial and fungal crop diseaseleaf wetness spreads fungal and bacterial diseasemedium
Intense rainfalltriggerWaterborne disease outbreakoverflow contaminates drinking watermedium
Intense rainfalltriggerLeptospirosis outbreakfloodwater carries rodent urine into contact with peoplemedium
Intense rainfalltriggerLocust swarmrain after dry spells creates breeding conditionsmedium
HeatwaveamplifyFoodborne illness outbreakfaster bacterial growth in foodmedium
HeatwaveamplifyDengue epidemicwarmth speeds vector development and virus replicationmedium
Cold wavereducesDengue epidemiccold suppresses mosquito activitymedium
Hard freezereducesCrop insect pest outbreakwinter kill of overwintering pestsmedium
Dust stormamplifyBacterial meningitis outbreakdry, dusty season irritates airways and spreads carriagelow
Tropical Pacific climate swingtriggerDengue epidemictemperature and rainfall anomalies shape vector habitatmedium
Tropical Pacific climate swingtriggerRift Valley fever outbreakanomalous rainfall in vulnerable dry regionsmedium
Tropical Pacific climate swingamplifyCrop insect pest outbreakweather anomalies favour pest growthlow
River floodtriggerCholera outbreakcontaminated water and failed sanitationmedium
River floodtriggerWaterborne disease outbreakcontamination of supplieshigh
River floodtriggerLeptospirosis outbreakcontact with contaminated floodwaterhigh
River floodtriggerFaecal-oral hepatitis outbreakfaecal contamination of watermedium
River floodamplifySnakebite envenomingflooding pushes snakes into homes and fieldslow
Surface-water floodamplifyWaterborne disease outbreakmixing of floodwater and sewagemedium
Meteorological droughtamplifyAnthrax outbreakstressed livestock graze near spore-bearing soillow
Meteorological droughtamplifyCrop insect pest outbreakstressed crops and shifted pest cyclesmedium
Water supply shortfalltriggerCholera outbreakuse of unsafe sourcesmedium
Marine heatwaveamplifyAquaculture disease outbreakheat-stressed farmed stockmedium
Permafrost thawtriggerAnthrax outbreakthawing exposes old carcasses and sporeslow
Volcanic ash fallamplifyTuberculosis surgefine ash adds respiratory stresslow
DeforestationamplifyZoonotic spillover eventmore contact between people, wildlife and livestockmedium
DeforestationamplifyMalaria resurgenceclearing creates breeding habitat at forest edgeslow
Biodiversity lossamplifyZoonotic spillover eventloss of buffer species changes host communitieslow
Biodiversity lossamplifyTick-borne disease surgefewer predators and fewer low-competence hosts for tickslow
Human-wildlife conflicttriggerRabies outbreakbites from infected wild animalslow
Outdoor air pollution episodeamplifySeasonal influenza epidemicinflamed airways raise susceptibilitylow
Household air pollutionamplifyTuberculosis surgesmoke damages lungs and immunitymedium
Solid waste mismanagementamplifyDengue epidemicdiscarded containers hold water for mosquitoesmedium
Hazardous and clinical waste releaseamplifyChronic viral hepatitis B and C burdensharps injuries from clinical wastelow
Untreated wastewater dischargetriggerWaterborne disease outbreakpathogens in receiving waterhigh
Untreated wastewater dischargetriggerCholera outbreakfaecal contamination of water used for drinkingmedium
Untreated wastewater dischargeamplifyAntimicrobial resistanceresistant bacteria and drug residues releasedmedium
Disaster and conflict debrisamplifyDengue epidemicdebris holds standing waterlow
Respiratory pandemictriggerHealth-system overloadpatients exceed beds and staffhigh
Respiratory pandemictriggerSupply-chain disruptionabsenteeism and closureshigh
Respiratory pandemictriggerMedical supply shortagedemand surge for protective and medical goodshigh
Respiratory pandemictriggerFinancial market and banking shockabrupt fall in activitymedium
Respiratory pandemictriggerPanic buying and hoardingfear of shortagesmedium
Respiratory pandemicamplifyEmergency-response overloadresponders fall ill or are diverted to the outbreakmedium
Seasonal influenza epidemicamplifyHealth-system overloadwinter admission peaksmedium
Zoonotic influenza spillovertriggerRespiratory pandemicadaptation to sustained human spreadlow
Coronavirus outbreaktriggerRespiratory pandemicsustained spread across regionsmedium
Coronavirus outbreakamplifyHealth-system overloadhospital clusters and staff infectionsmedium
Tuberculosis surgeamplifyAntimicrobial resistanceincomplete treatment selects resistant strainsmedium
Measles outbreakamplifyHealth-system overloadpaediatric admissions riselow
Polio outbreaktriggerMedical supply shortagevaccine demand for outbreak campaignslow
Cholera outbreakamplifyHealth-system overloadrapid surge of severe dehydrationmedium
Foodborne illness outbreaktriggerFood supply-chain breakdownproduct recallslow
Dengue epidemicamplifyHealth-system overloadsurges of severe casesmedium
Chikungunya and Zika outbreakcompound-withDengue epidemicthe same mosquito spreads both, so outbreaks overlapmedium
Malaria resurgenceamplifyAcute food crisisillness reduces labour in planting and harvestlow
West Nile and Culex-borne virus outbreakamplifyHealth-system overloadneuroinvasive cases need intensive carelow
Trypanosomiasis outbreakamplifyAcute food crisisillness and herd losses cut farm outputlow
Yellow fever outbreaktriggerMedical supply shortagevaccine stock runs short in large outbreaksmedium
Ebola and Marburg outbreaktriggerHealth-system overloadisolation needs and health-worker infectionshigh
Ebola and Marburg outbreaktriggerTrade restriction or embargotravel and trade restrictionsmedium
Lassa fever outbreakamplifyHealth-system overloadinfections in health workerslow
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever outbreakamplifyHealth-system overloadhospital-acquired spread to stafflow
Sexually transmitted infection resurgenceamplifyHIV epidemicgenital ulcers and inflammation raise transmissionmedium
Zoonotic spillover eventtriggerCoronavirus outbreaka novel virus establishes in peoplelow
Zoonotic spillover eventtriggerEbola and Marburg outbreakcontact with infected wildlifelow
Zoonotic spillover eventtriggerNipah and henipavirus outbreakcontact with food or animals contaminated by batslow
Vector-borne livestock diseasecompound-withRift Valley fever outbreakthe same mosquito-borne outbreak strikes herds and herders togethermedium
Brucellosis outbreakamplifyAcute food crisisabortions in herds cut milk and offspringlow
Mpox outbreakamplifyMedical supply shortagedemand for limited vaccinelow
Prion disease clustertriggerTrade restriction or embargobans on beef and feed exportshigh
Smallpox reintroductiontriggerHealth-system overloadisolation and mass vaccination demandhigh
Smallpox reintroductiontriggerMedical supply shortagevaccine stockpiles drawn downmedium
Swine fever epizootictriggerFood supply-chain breakdownculling and movement banshigh
Swine fever epizootictriggerTrade restriction or embargoimport bans on porkhigh
Swine fever epizootictriggerCommodity price shockpork supply fallsmedium
Foot-and-mouth epizootictriggerTrade restriction or embargoexport bans on livestock productshigh
Foot-and-mouth epizootictriggerFood supply-chain breakdownmovement standstill and cullingmedium
Poultry epizootictriggerZoonotic influenza spilloverclose contact with infected birdsmedium
Poultry epizootictriggerFood supply-chain breakdownflock cullingmedium
Ruminant respiratory epizooticamplifyAcute food crisisherd losses in pastoral householdsmedium
Screwworm infestationtriggerTrade restriction or embargoanimal movement controlsmedium
Livestock disease outbreakamplifyAcute food crisisloss of herds that households depend onmedium
Aquaculture disease outbreaktriggerFood supply-chain breakdownfarm stock lossesmedium
Bacterial and fungal crop diseasetriggerAcute food crisisharvest losses in staple cropsmedium
Bacterial and fungal crop diseaseamplifySimultaneous multi-region crop failurepathogens spread across producing regionslow
Plant virus epidemicamplifyAcute food crisisstaple crop yield lossesmedium
Crop insect pest outbreaktriggerAcute food crisiscrop damagemedium
Locust swarmtriggerAcute food crisisswarms consume crops and pasturehigh
Locust swarmtriggerPesticide exposurelarge-scale control sprayingmedium
Invasive species spreadtriggerBiodiversity lossnative species outcompetedhigh
Invasive species spreadamplifyWildfireinvasive grasses add continuous fuelmedium
Antimicrobial resistanceamplifyTuberculosis surgedrugs stop workinghigh
Antimicrobial resistanceamplifyTyphoid and paratyphoid feverresistant strains are harder to treathigh
Antimicrobial resistanceamplifyHealth-system overloadlonger stays and treatment failuresmedium
Deliberate or accidental biological-agent releasetriggerHealth-system overloadmass casualties and contact tracinghigh
Deliberate or accidental biological-agent releasetriggerPanic buying and hoardingfear after a releaselow
Substandard and falsified medicinesamplifyAntimicrobial resistancesub-therapeutic doses select resistancemedium
Substandard and falsified medicinesamplifyMalaria resurgencetreatment failure with poor-quality antimalarialsmedium
Adulterated alcohol poisoningtriggerHealth-system overloadpoisoning clusters need dialysis and antidoteslow
Overdose epidemicamplifyHIV epidemicshared injecting equipmentmedium
Overdose epidemicamplifyChronic viral hepatitis B and C burdenshared injecting equipmenthigh
Water supply failuretriggerWaterborne disease outbreakpeople turn to unsafe sourcesmedium
Water supply failuretriggerCholera outbreakloss of safe water and hygienemedium
Water supply failureamplifyViral diarrhoea outbreakless hand washing and unsafe stored watermedium
Sewer and drain failuretriggerWaterborne disease outbreaksewage enters homes, streets and watermedium
Disinformation campaignamplifyMeasles outbreaklower vaccine uptakemedium
Internal armed conflictamplifyCholera outbreakwater and health services break downhigh
Internal armed conflictamplifyPolio outbreakvaccination campaigns cannot reach childrenmedium
Mass displacementamplifyCholera outbreakcrowded camps with poor sanitationhigh
Mass displacementamplifyMeasles outbreakcrowding and missed vaccinationhigh
Mass displacementamplifyTuberculosis surgecrowded shelter and interrupted treatmentmedium
Mass displacementamplifyShigellosis and dysentery outbreakcrowding and shared latrinesmedium
Mass displacementamplifyDiphtheria and whooping cough outbreakcrowding and missed vaccinationmedium
Mass displacementamplifyNeglected tropical disease outbreakmovement into endemic areas without carelow
Mass displacementamplifyPlague outbreakcrowding with rodents and fleaslow
Acute food crisisamplifyCholera outbreakmalnutrition weakens defencesmedium
Acute food crisisamplifyMeasles outbreakmalnourished children die more oftenhigh
Governance breakdownamplifyPolio outbreakroutine immunisation stopsmedium
Governance breakdownamplifyOther vaccine-preventable outbreakroutine immunisation gaps widenlow
Cold-chain failuretriggerFoodborne illness outbreakperishable food kept warmmedium
Medical supply shortageamplifySubstandard and falsified medicinesfalsified products fill the gapmedium
DeforestationamplifyEmerging arbovirus outbreaknew contact with vectorsmedium
Marine heatwaveamplifyWarm-water bacterial infectionbacteria multiply in warm watermedium
HeatwavetriggerHeat-related illness surgebody overheatsmedium
HeatwaveamplifyPreterm and low birthweight birth riseheat stress in pregnancymedium
HeatwaveamplifySuicide rate riseheat worsens mental illnessmedium
HeatwavetriggerOccupational heat strainheat at workmedium
Cold wavetriggerCold-related illness surgebody chillsmedium
Wildlife disease panzootictriggerPoultry epizooticwild birds carry virus to flockshigh
Wildlife disease panzootictriggerZoonotic spillover eventinfected wildlife contact peoplemedium
Climate-driven species range shiftamplifyTick-borne disease surgevectors spread into new regionsmedium
AI uplift for biological weaponsamplifyDeliberate or accidental biological-agent releasemore actors able to produce and release agentsmedium
Humid heat stresstriggerHeat-related illness surgesweating stops coolingmedium
Humid heat stressamplifyChronic kidney disease surgerepeated dehydration injures kidneysmedium
Heat-related illness surgetriggerHealth-system overloademergency surgemedium
Heat-driven grid stressamplifyHeat-related illness surgecooling lost in outagesmedium
Cold-wave energy crunchamplifyCold-related illness surgehomes go unheatedmedium
Disease vector range expansionamplifyDengue epidemicvectors reach new populationsmedium
Disease vector range expansionamplifyTick-borne disease surgeticks reach new areasmedium
Aeroallergen season intensificationamplifyThunderstorm asthmamore pollen to break upmedium
Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spreadcompound-withAntimicrobial resistancespecific class of overall resistancemedium
Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spreadamplifyHealth-system overloadlonger, costlier staysmedium
Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spreadamplifyHealthcare-associated infection outbreakuntreatable hospital strainsmedium
Antimalarial and antiparasitic drug resistanceamplifyMalaria resurgencecures failmedium
Insecticide resistance in disease vectorsamplifyMalaria resurgencenets and sprays failmedium
Insecticide resistance in disease vectorsamplifyDengue epidemicvector control failsmedium
Antiviral drug resistanceamplifyHIV epidemictreatment failuremedium
Antimicrobial development and supply failureamplifyMultidrug-resistant bacterial infection spreadno new treatmentsmedium
Substandard and falsified medicinesamplifyMultidrug-resistant bacterial infection spreadunderdosing selects resistancemedium
Zoonotic spillover eventtriggerUnknown future pathogen emergencenew agent enters peoplemedium
Unknown future pathogen emergencetriggerHealth-system overloadsurge of patientsmedium
Disease surveillance failureamplifyUnknown future pathogen emergencelate detectionmedium
Disease surveillance failureamplifyRespiratory pandemiclate detectionmedium
Undiagnosed illness clustertriggerUnknown future pathogen emergenceearly signal of new agentmedium

100 more relations are in the Hazard Standard dataset.

03Risk classes

Risk classes in this domain

Risk classes are Hazard Standard tags with published criteria; a tag is not a severity value.

40 hazards

Global risk

A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it.

Risk type
5 hazards

Catastrophic risk

A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from.

Risk type
7 hazards

Exponential risk

A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response.

Risk type
21 hazards

Emerging risk

A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature.

Risk type
1 hazards

Existential risk

A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity's long-term potential.

Risk type
1 hazards

Frontier technology risk

A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment.

Risk type
1 hazards

Planetary risk

A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole.

Risk type
04Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms, standards, learning and working groups across GCRI, GRF and GRA for the systems these hazards act on.

Propose a change to Hazard Standard

Definitions and relations are a draft for expert review; corrections follow the standards development process.