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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index Models · Model · on: trigger study started

设计参数化触发条件

Study an index trigger for pre-arranged finance: event history, basis risk and calibration, with review before any use. Information for design, not advice.

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页面 GRX-JRN-PARAMETRIC版本 2026 基线版证据截止 2026-09-30就业 6数值 尚未发布方法 v1.0.0-draft
on: trigger study started · Design a parametric trigger6 jobs · 1 gate · 5 checks
  1. Peril, area and index self-serve
  2. Historical event set 1 day
  3. Basis-risk test 1 day
  4. Calibrate attachment and exit self-serve
  5. Independent review 10 days
  6. Monitoring feed ongoing

01建模

设计参数化触发条件

Study an index trigger for pre-arranged finance: event history, basis risk and calibration, with review before any use. Information for design, not advice.

on: trigger study started

设计参数化触发条件

In progressTriggered by Risk-transfer team6 jobs1 approval gate5 checks

流程图
01框定
02Study
03Study
04Calibrate
05评审
06评审

100%
时间线
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 d12 dTarget
Peril, area and indexYouinstant
Historical event setModel Lab1 d
Basis-risk testVerification engine1 d
Calibrate attachment and exitYouinstant
Independent reviewReviewers10 d
Monitoring feedNXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Intelligenceongoing

End to end on the longest path: about 13.4 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

步骤
  1. Peril, area and index

    Frame · You · self-serve
    Peril keyed to Hazard Standard · Area of interest · Index candidates
    Model Labhazard standard
  2. Historical event set

    Study · Model Lab · 1 day
    Event catalogue assembled · Losses and responses matched
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  3. Basis-risk test

    Study · Verification engine · 1 day
    False positives and misses · Payout correlation with loss
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Calibrate attachment and exit

    Calibrate · You · self-serve
    Attachment, exit and payout curve · Return periods
    Model Lab
  5. Independent review approval

    Review · Reviewers · 10 days
    Method and data reviewed · Limits recorded
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  6. Monitoring feed

    Review · NXS-GRX Intelligence · ongoing
    Index values streamed · Threshold crossings sent for review
    Pulse nowcastWebhooks and streaming
产出物
产出物 作业 执行方 阶段
Study brief Peril, area and index 您 框定
Event set Historical event set Model Lab Study
Basis-risk report Basis-risk test Verification engine Study
Trigger card Calibrate attachment and exit 您 Calibrate
Review record Independent review Reviewers 评审
Monitoring subscription Monitoring feed NXS-GRX Intelligence 评审
已完成进行中等待批准QueuedApproval gateTest jobYou are here
Study an index trigger for pre-arranged finance: event history, basis risk and calibration, with review before any use. Information for design, not advice. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
02面向谁

Solutions that use this journey

公共部门

多边机构和开发银行

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

See the solution Enterprise

保险与再保险公司

Read hazard, exposure and protection gaps, run tails and study parametric index design.

See the solution

03技术

8 components

Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artefacts.

Model Labhazard standardProvenance (W3C PROV)Verification engineMonte Carlo enginePostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcastWebhooks and streaming

Part of Models of the Index: Scenario pathways, stress tests, tail and exceedance analytics, coupling contagion and forecasting on the open method library, with tests and model cards.

Start this journey

Talk to the Secretariat to start this journey with your team.

联系

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.