NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-INF · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
Infrastructure fragility index
Index of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
Page GRX-IDX-INFEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragilityValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Uncertainty
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Structure
5 components
24 leaf indicators
Coverage
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 30%
24
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
10
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Shows how likely infrastructure is to fail or isolate people under stress, and how much it already has; sub-indices stay visible beside the total.
computation
How Infrastructure fragility is computedGraph
01Indicators
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pillar
05Composite
100%
List
- Rural population within 2 km of an all-season roadIndicator · IND · %Share of the rural population living within two kilometres (about a 20-minute walk) of a road passable in all seasons, estimated from gridded population and road-network condition data.
- Logistics performanceIndicator · IND · {score}Overall score of trade logistics performance (customs, infrastructure, shipments, logistics competence, tracking, timeliness) on a 1-5 scale, as an external source series.
- Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIndicator · IND · %Liner shipping connectivity of the economy's ports (ship deployment, container capacity, services, companies, direct connections) as a percentage of the highest-scoring economy in the same year.
- Air passengers carried per capitaIndicator · IND · {passengers}/a/{person}Passengers carried on domestic and international flights by carriers registered in the economy, per resident per year.
- Urban population with convenient access to public transportIndicator · IND · %Share of the urban population living within 500 m walking distance of a low-capacity public transport stop or 1 km of a high-capacity one.
- Individuals using the InternetIndicator · IND · %Share of individuals who used the Internet from any location and device in the last three months.
- Population covered by a mobile network, by technologyIndicator · IND · %Share of the population within range of a mobile-cellular signal, reported separately for 2G, 3G, 4G/LTE and 5G; the headline value is 4G or better.
- Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitantsIndicator · IND · /10*2Fixed subscriptions to the public Internet at advertised download speeds of at least 256 kbit/s, per 100 inhabitants, by speed tier.
- International connectivity route redundancyIndicator · IND · 1Number of physically diverse international connectivity routes (distinct subsea-cable landing stations and cross-border terrestrial fibre routes) serving the economy, capped at ten.
- Power grid resilienceIndicator · IND · {score}Target-defined score (0-1) combining transmission N-1 compliance, share of demand restorable within 24 hours after a major event, black-start capability and hardening of critical substations against flood, wind, heat and geomagnetic stress.
- Water supply network resilienceIndicator · IND · {score}Target-defined score (0-1) combining non-revenue water, storage in days of average demand, source redundancy, back-up power at treatment and pumping sites, and planned restoration time after a major event.
- Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIndicator · IND · %Share of hospitals, emergency operations centres, water and wastewater plants and telecom core sites with on-site back-up power and fuel for at least 72 hours of operation.
- Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIndicator · IND · %Difference between the estimated annual investment needed to meet infrastructure service and resilience needs (energy, transport, water, telecom) and current-trend investment, as a percentage of GDP.
- Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIndicator · IND · /moAverage number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
- Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIndicator · IND · %Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
- System average interruption duration (SAIDI)Indicator · IND · h/aTotal minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)Indicator · IND · /aNumber of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIndicator · IND · %Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
- Critical infrastructure units damaged or destroyed by disastersIndicator · IND · 1Number of critical infrastructure units and facilities (health, education, transport, utilities, other) damaged or destroyed by hazardous events in the year.
- Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIndicator · IND · 1Number of health facilities damaged or destroyed by hazardous events in the year.
- Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIndicator · IND · 1Number of educational facilities damaged or destroyed by hazardous events in the year.
- Disruptions to basic services attributed to disastersIndicator · IND · 1Number of disruption events to basic services (education, health, and other basic services such as water, power, transport, telecom and waste) caused by hazardous events in the year.
- Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIndicator · IND · %Direct economic loss from damage to or destruction of critical infrastructure by hazardous events in the year, as a percentage of GDP.
- Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIndicator · IND · h/aTotal hours in the year during which measured national internet connectivity fell below half of its expected level, whether from shutdowns, cable cuts, power loss or attack.
- Transport connectivity deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of the lack of rural all-season road access, weak logistics performance, low liner shipping connectivity, low air connectivity and limited urban public transport, each inverted.
- Digital connectivity deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of the lack of internet use, mobile coverage, fixed broadband and international route redundancy, each inverted.
- Utility system fragility sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of the lack of power-grid and water-network resilience and of back-up power at critical facilities, together with the infrastructure investment gap.
- Electricity supply unreliability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
- Infrastructure disruption impact sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 11.1%Composite of disaster damage to critical infrastructure, health and education facilities, basic-service disruptions, economic loss to infrastructure and internet disruption hours, normalised over a ten-year rolling window.
- Infrastructure fragility indexDomain index · IDX · geometricIndex of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
- Human and systems vulnerabilityPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
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02Simulator
Run this index's own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate infrastructure fragility on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
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Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Method
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM_0_10
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 30% of weight
- Weighting
- expert
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Uncertainty
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; Sendai Framework target D; UNDRR Principles for Resilient Infrastructure (2022)
Very low0.0 to < 2.0
Low2.0 to < 3.5
Medium3.5 to < 5.0
High5.0 to < 6.5
Very high6.5 to 10.0
04Components
5 components, 24 indicators
Transport connectivity deficit sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of rural all-season road access, weak logistics performance, low liner shipping connectivity, low air connectivity and limited urban public transport, each inverted.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rural population within 2 km of an all-season roadIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access | % | Class C | wb-rural-access-index, openstreetmap, worldpop | 33.3% |
| Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance | {score} | Class E | wb-lpi | 22.2% |
| Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity | % | Class B | unctad-lsci, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
| Air passengers carried per capitaIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc | {passengers}/a/{person} | Class B | icao-air-transport-reporting, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
| Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access | % | Class C | un-habitat-urban-indicators-database, gtfs-feeds, openstreetmap | 11.1% |
Digital connectivity deficit sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of internet use, mobile coverage, fixed broadband and international route redundancy, each inverted.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users | % | Class B | itu-datahub, wb-wdi, national-ict-household-surveys | 33.3% |
| Population covered by a mobile network, by technologyIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage | % | Class B | itu-datahub, gsma-mobile-coverage-maps | 33.3% |
| Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitantsIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband | /10*2 | Class B | itu-datahub, wb-wdi, oecd-broadband-portal | 16.7% |
| International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | 1 | Class D | telegeography-submarine-cable-map, itu-broadband-maps, peeringdb | 16.7% |
Utility system fragility sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of power-grid and water-network resilience and of back-up power at critical facilities, together with the infrastructure investment gap.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience | {score} | Class D | national-energy-regulators, transmission-system-operator-reports, entso-e-transparency | 25.0% |
| Water supply network resilienceIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience | {score} | Class E | ibnet-water-utility-database, national-water-regulators, municipal-utility-reports | 25.0% |
| Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power | % | Class E | who-health-facility-assessments, national-civil-protection-inspections | 25.0% |
| Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp | % | Class C | gi-hub-infrastructure-outlook, wb-ppi-database, imf-investment-and-capital-stock-dataset | 25.0% |
Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1
Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | /mo | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready | 22.2% |
| Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys | 22.2% |
| System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | h/a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
| System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | /a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
| Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
Infrastructure disruption impact sub-index w 0.5
Composite of disaster damage to critical infrastructure, health and education facilities, basic-service disruptions, economic loss to infrastructure and internet disruption hours, normalised over a ten-year rolling window.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical infrastructure units damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage | 1 | Class B | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, desinventar | 22.2% |
| Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged | 1 | Class B | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, who-health-resources-availability-monitoring | 11.1% |
| Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged | 1 | Class B | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, gadrrres-comprehensive-school-safety | 11.1% |
| Disruptions to basic services attributed to disastersIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions | 1 | Class C | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor | 22.2% |
| Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp | % | Class C | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, wb-gfdrr-pdna-reports | 22.2% |
| Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | h/a | Class D | ioda-georgia-tech, cloudflare-radar, access-now-keepiton | 11.1% |
05Domain
Infrastructure
Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems.
| Sub-domain | Indicators |
|---|---|
| Transport | 6 |
| Digital connectivity | 5 |
| Utilities | 7 |
| Urban systems | 1 |
| Service disruption | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): Sendai D; ISO 37120 / 37122 / 37123.
06Indicators
All 24 infrastructure indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rural population within 2 km of an all-season roadIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.1.1 |
| Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance | INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
| Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
| Air passengers carried per capitaIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc | INF | Transport | coping capacity | {passengers}/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR |
| Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Road and rail network in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share | INF | Transport | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
| Population covered by a mobile network, by technologyIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.c.1 |
| Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitantsIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | /10*2 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2 |
| International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a | COUNTRY | |
| Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Water supply network resilienceIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Water supply assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Lifeline facilities in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp | INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours | INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a | CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Critical infrastructure units damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2 |
| Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
| Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
| Disruptions to basic services attributed to disastersIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-5 |
| Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp | INF | Service disruption | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-5 |
07Quote
Infrastructure fragility index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · INF · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Infrastructure fragility index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
- Previous edition
- —
- Range since 2016
- —
- Coupled composite
- —
- Coupling score S
- —
- Pulse, latest week
- —
- Outlook, 12 months
- —
- Method
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
Infrastructure fragility index, world, by edition
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Africa54
Americas35
Asia48
Europe44
No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.
08Values
Country values
FIG 5 · Infrastructure fragility index: countries (values when released)
Loading the map
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/inf/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Observation key
nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Series
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-09Global InfrastructureInfrastructure fragility, service continuity, interdependency of power, water, transport and telecommunications, and investment exposure.GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk.SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk.XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints.XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure.XT-08Drones, robotics and autonomous systemsAutonomous and robotic systems in logistics, agriculture, industry and security: failure, misuse and safety oversight.XT-09Sensors, IoT and industrial IoTConnected sensing and control across cities, utilities and industry: attack surface, data integrity and dependency.XT-12Positioning, navigation and timingDependency of power, telecom, finance and transport on positioning and timing signals; jamming, spoofing and space weather.TH-02Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)Hazard, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, preparedness, redundancy and recovery readings for planning and learning, aligned to the Sendai Framework targets.
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 8 |
SDG | 6 |
SENDAI | 5 |
ISO_37120 | 3 |
ISO_37123 | 3 |
11Across the Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
GCRI Trade and Strategic Resources · GCRI Food · GCRI Advanced Industry and Robotics
12Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Infrastructure fragility index (GRX-IDX-INF), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/infrastructure-fragility/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000127.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.