NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

Food insecurity risk index

Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.

Construction Simulator Indicators

Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76

FIG 1 · Method card

Aggregation

mazziotta pareto

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Uncertainty

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Structure

5 components

20 leaf indicators

Coverage

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.

leaf indicators

components

1,000

Monte Carlo draws

series read it

01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Joins today's acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow's; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.

computation

How Food insecurity risk is computed

Graph28 nodes

Graph

01Indicators

02Sub-indices

03Domain index

04Pillar

05Composite

100%

List

Share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above
Indicator · IND · %
People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
Population in IPC Phase 3 or above
Indicator · IND · {persons}
Number of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
Presence of population in IPC Phase 5
Indicator · IND · {bool}
Whether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
Prevalence of undernourishment
Indicator · IND · %
Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
Moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)
Indicator · IND · %
Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
Severe food insecurity (FIES)
Indicator · IND · %
Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
Population unable to afford a healthy diet
Indicator · IND · %
Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
Indicator of food price anomalies (food CPI)
Indicator · IND · 1
Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
Months with abnormally high food prices
Indicator · IND · %
Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
Food price inflation
Indicator · IND · %
Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
Cost of a healthy diet
Indicator · IND · [USD]
Daily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
Average dietary energy supply adequacy
Indicator · IND · %
Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
Per capita food supply variability
Indicator · IND · kcal/d/{person}
Year-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
Cereal import dependency ratio
Indicator · IND · %
Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
Food import bill, share of merchandise exports
Indicator · IND · %
Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01-03) as a percentage of GDP.
Employment in agriculture, share of total employment
Indicator · IND · %
People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
Cereal yield
Indicator · IND · kg/har
Harvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
Cereal yield variability (15-year)
Indicator · IND · %
Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
Agricultural water withdrawal, share of total
Indicator · IND · %
Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
Acute food insecurity sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%
Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
Chronic food insecurity sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%
Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
Food price stress sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%
Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
Food supply fragility sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%
Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
Agricultural dependence sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%
Composite of agriculture's share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture's share of water withdrawal.
Food insecurity risk index
Domain index · IDX · mazziotta pareto
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
Human and systems vulnerability
Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
NXS-GRX Composite Risk
Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices

Not runIn progressDone

FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order.

02Simulator

Run this index's own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers

Components (0 to 10)

Acute food insecurity sub-index · w 23.0

Chronic food insecurity sub-index · w 1.55.0

Food price stress sub-index · w 17.0

Food supply fragility sub-index · w 14.0

Agricultural dependence sub-index · w 0.56.0

Aggregation

Weight uncertainty ±%25

Mix aggregation alternatives (0 or 1)1

–

runs in your browser

Contribution of each component (leave one out)

Simulator: the index's published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) values.

03Method

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment: WINSORISE
Outlier rule: |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation: IDENTITY
Imputation: NONE
Coverage minimum: 67% of components
Modelled share cap: 20% of weight
Weighting: expert
Aggregation: mazziotta pareto
Scale: 0 to 10
Uncertainty: 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis: IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide

Very low0.0 to < 2.0

Low2.0 to < 3.5

Medium3.5 to < 5.0

High5.0 to < 6.5

Very high6.5 to 10.0

04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2

Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share	%	Class B	ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population	50.0%
Population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population	{persons}	Class B	ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc	25.0%
Presence of population in IPC Phase 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence	{bool}	Class B	ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee	25.0%

Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5

Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Prevalence of undernourishmentIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment	%	Class C	fao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi	25.0%
Moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe	%	Class C	fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi	25.0%
Severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe	%	Class C	fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi	25.0%
Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable	%	Class C	wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi	25.0%

Food price stress sub-index w 1

Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Indicator of food price anomalies (food CPI)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly	1	Class B	fao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi	25.0%
Months with abnormally high food pricesIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months	%	Class D	derived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly	25.0%
Food price inflationIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation	%	Class B	fao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi	25.0%
Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost	[USD]	Class C	wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi	25.0%

Food supply fragility sub-index w 1

Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Average dietary energy supply adequacyIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy	%	Class B	fao-faostat-fs	25.0%
Per capita food supply variabilityIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability	kcal/d/{person}	Class B	fao-faostat-fs	25.0%
Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency	%	Class B	fao-faostat-fs	25.0%
Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports	%	Class B	fao-faostat-fs	25.0%

Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of agriculture's share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture's share of water withdrawal.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp	%	Class A	wb-wdi, un-national-accounts	22.2%
Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share	%	Class C	ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi	22.2%
Cereal yieldIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield	kg/har	Class B	fao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi	22.2%
Cereal yield variability (15-year)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability	%	Class D	derived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl	22.2%
Agricultural water withdrawal, share of totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal	%	Class B	fao-aquastat, wb-wdi	11.1%

05Domain

Food systems

Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.

Sub-domain	Indicators
Availability	5
Access and affordability	4
Acute food insecurity	4
Food prices	3
Agricultural production and dependence	7

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.

06Indicators

All 23 food systems indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain

Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.

Filter by name, code, domain, sub-domain or crosswalk

Indicator	Domain	Sub-domain	Component	Unit	Levels	Crosswalks
Prevalence of undernourishmentIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment	FOO	Availability	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS
Number of people undernourishedIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished	FOO	Availability	vulnerability	{persons}	COUNTRY	FAO_FAOSTAT 210011
Average dietary energy supply adequacyIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy	FOO	Availability	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	FAO_FAOSTAT 21010
Per capita food supply variabilityIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability	FOO	Availability	vulnerability	kcal/d/{person}	COUNTRY	FAO_FAOSTAT 21031
Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency	FOO	Availability	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe	FOO	Access and affordability	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS
Severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe	FOO	Access and affordability	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS
Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost	FOO	Access and affordability	vulnerability	[USD]	COUNTRY	WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable	FOO	Access and affordability	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population	FOO	Acute food insecurity	impact	{persons}	COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2	IPC Phase 3+
Share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share	FOO	Acute food insecurity	impact	%	COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2	IPC Phase 3+
IPC Phase 3 or above, share of total populationIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total	FOO	Acute food insecurity	impact	%	COUNTRY
Presence of population in IPC Phase 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence	FOO	Acute food insecurity	impact	{bool}	COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2	IPC Phase 5
Indicator of food price anomalies (food CPI)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly	FOO	Food prices	hazard	1	COUNTRY	SDG 2.c.1
Months with abnormally high food pricesIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months	FOO	Food prices	hazard	%	COUNTRY
Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports	FOO	Food prices	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp	FOO	Agricultural production and dependence	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share	FOO	Agricultural production and dependence	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Cereal yieldIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield	FOO	Agricultural production and dependence	vulnerability	kg/har	COUNTRY	WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG
Cereal yield variability (15-year)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability	FOO	Agricultural production and dependence	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Agricultural water withdrawal, share of totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal	FOO	Agricultural production and dependence	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS
Cropland, share of land areaIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share	FOO	Agricultural production and dependence	exposure	%	COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID	WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Vegetation Health Index on croplandIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index	FOO	Agricultural production and dependence	hazard	{score}	COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID

07Quote

Food insecurity risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale

Food insecurity risk index, world

—

Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.

Previous edition: —
Range since 2016: —
Coupled composite: —
Coupling score S: —
Pulse, latest week: —
Outlook, 12 months: —
Method: Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws: 1,000

Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.

No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.

08Values

Country values

FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)Find a country

Loading the map

Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released

Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index's classes with each country's interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.

Tiles: /api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Observation key: nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

09Series

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.

10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code system	Leaf indicators mapped
`WB_WDI`	9
`FAO_FAOSTAT`	8
`SDG`	4
`IPC`	3

11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

Across the Nexus

GCRI Food · GCRI Biotechnology and Biosecurity · GRF Climate and Nature Governance

12Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.

Cart review

Food insecurity risk index

mazziotta pareto

1,000 draws

5 components

67% minimum

From indicators to the composite

Run this index's own aggregation

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

5 components, 20 indicators

Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2

Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5

Food price stress sub-index w 1

Food supply fragility sub-index w 1

Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5

Food systems

All 23 food systems indicators

Food insecurity risk index, world

Country values

Series that read this index

Crosswalks and validity checks

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Across the Nexus

Cite and reuse

See this index in every country profile

Status

What NXS-GRX is not

Institutions and sources

GLOBAL RISKS INDEX (GRIx)