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Foundry
The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX Models · Test · on: model version submitted

Test and validate a model

Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use.

Follow the runAll journeys
Page GRX-JRN-VALIDATE-MODELEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Jobs 7Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
on: model version submitted · Test and validate a model7 jobs · 1 gate · 11 checks
  1. Model version submittedinstant
  2. Backtest6 hours
  3. Out-of-sample scores2 hours
  4. Benchmark2 hours
  5. Model card1 day
  6. Approval gate10 days
  7. Promote to productioninstant
01Test

Test and validate a model

Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use.

on: model version submitted
Test and validate a model
In progressTriggered by Model owner7 jobs1 approval gate11 checks1 deployment
Graph
01Submit
02Test
03Document
04Approve
05Approve
100%
Timeline
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Model version submittedYouinstant
BacktestVerification engine6 h
Out-of-sample scoresVerification engine2 h
BenchmarkVerification engine2 h
Model cardYou1 d
Approval gateMethod stewards10 d
Promote to productionNXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 11.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Model version submitted
    Submit · You · instant
    Code, data and seed pinned · Intended use declared
    Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  2. Backtest
    Test · Verification engine · 6 hours
    Rolling-origin backtest · Hindcasts over the archive
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  3. Out-of-sample scores
    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Brier and CRPS · Reliability and ROC area
    Verification engine
  4. Benchmark
    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Against established indices and naive baselines
    Verification engineindicator standard
  5. Model card
    Document · You · 1 day
    Intended use and limits · Data, method and scores
    Replication packs
  6. Approval gate approval
    Approve · Method stewards · 10 days
    Disposition recorded
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  7. Promote to production
    Approve · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
    Version pinned in production · Rollback kept
    Model LabPublic cut API
Artifacts
ArtifactJobWhoStage
Version recordModel version submittedYouSubmit
Backtest reportBacktestVerification engineTest
ScorecardOut-of-sample scoresVerification engineTest
Benchmark tableBenchmarkVerification engineTest
Model cardModel cardYouDocument
Approval recordApproval gateMethod stewardsApprove
Release tagPromote to productionNXS-GRX PlatformApprove
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateTest jobDeploymentYou are here
Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is an illustration, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
02Who it is for

Solutions that use this journey

Public sector

Central banks and supervisors

Design supervisory scenarios, read systemic coupling and replicate methods.

See the solution
03Technology

7 components

Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artifacts.

Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Verification engineMonte Carlo engineindicator standardReplication packsPublic cut API

Part of NXS-GRX Models: Scenario pathways, stress tests, tail and exceedance analytics, coupling contagion and forecasting on the open method library, with tests and model cards.

Start this journey

Talk to the Secretariat to start this journey with your team.

Contact

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.