Run a scenario or stress test
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.
- Choose the scenario familyinstant
- Configure shocks and horizonself-serve
- Model runs3 hours
- Coupling propagation1 hour
- Tail and exceedance1 hour
- Results and driversinstant
- Analyst sign-off2 days
Run a scenario or stress test
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.
End to end on the longest path: about 2.2 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.
- Choose the scenario familyDesign · You · instantWarming, socio-economic or transition families · Or a structured shock: fiscal, compound hazard, supplyModel Lab
- Configure shocks and horizonDesign · You · self-serveShock size, timing and entry points · Horizon to 2030, 2050 or 2100Model LabTested model kernels
- Model runs matrix · entities × scenarios × drawsRun · Model Lab · 3 hoursKernels from the method library · Seeds recorded per runModel LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engine
- Coupling propagationPropagate · Dependency network · 1 hourDebtRank and threshold cascades · Cross-border spilloversDependency networkTested model kernels
- Tail and exceedancePropagate · Model Lab · 1 hourExceedance curves · 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 losses · Expected shortfallMonte Carlo engine
- Results and driversRead · You · instantFan charts against class bounds · Driver decomposition · Export with citationModel LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
- Analyst sign-off approvalRead · Your reviewer · 2 daysAssumptions and limits recordedPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
| Artifact | Job | Who | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario spec | Choose the scenario family | You | Design |
| Run config | Configure shocks and horizon | You | Design |
| Run record with seed and digest | Model runs | Model Lab | Run |
| Cascade paths | Coupling propagation | Dependency network | Propagate |
| Tail report | Tail and exceedance | Model Lab | Propagate |
| Results pack | Results and drivers | You | Read |
| Sign-off | Analyst sign-off | Your reviewer | Read |
Solutions that use this journey
Multilaterals and development banks
Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.
See the solutionPublic sectorCentral banks and supervisors
Design supervisory scenarios, read systemic coupling and replicate methods.
See the solutionEnterpriseInsurers and reinsurers
Read hazard, exposure and protection gaps, run tails and study parametric index design.
See the solutionPublic sectorCities and infrastructure operators
Read hexagon-level hazard and dependency layers for planning, investment and continuity.
See the solution6 components
Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artifacts.
Part of NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Models: Scenario pathways, stress tests, tail and exceedance analytics, coupling contagion and forecasting on the open method library, with tests and model cards.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.