The Global Risks Index
Hazard Standard · space · 17 hazards

Space and near-Earth

Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris.

Page GRX-HAZ-SPACEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
Hazard Standard · Space and near-Earth
origin
natural13
anthropogenic4
onset
rapid8
instantaneous4
slow3
progressive1
creeping1
predictability
nowcast-only6
forecastable5
unpredictable3
statistical3
2
families
17
hazards
54
relations
15
risk-class tags
01Families

2 families, 17 hazards

Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris. Organised by space; families by driving process.

Solar-terrestrial storms space.solar-storm

Hazards that start at the sun and act through the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere on technology (grids, radio, satellites, navigation, aircrew dose); they reach the whole sunlit or night side at once.

Geomagnetic stormspace.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm

A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.

Also: magnetic storm, aurora storm

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · planetPredictability · nowcast-onlyGlobal riskCatastrophic risk
Solar flare radio blackoutspace.solar-storm.flare-radio-blackout

A burst of X-rays from a solar flare that ionises the sunlit upper atmosphere and blacks out high-frequency radio there.

Also: radio blackout

Origin · naturalOnset · instantaneousDuration · shortFootprint · planetPredictability · unpredictable
Solar radiation stormspace.solar-storm.solar-radiation-storm

A stream of energetic solar particles that raises the radiation dose of aircrew and astronauts and damages satellite electronics.

Also: solar energetic particles

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · planetPredictability · nowcast-only
Ionospheric disturbancespace.solar-storm.ionospheric-disturbance

Irregular electron density in the upper atmosphere that degrades radio links and satellite positioning.

Also: ionospheric storm, scintillation

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · continentPredictability · nowcast-only
Geomagnetically induced currentspace.solar-storm.induced-current

Slowly varying currents driven through long conductors, such as grids and pipelines, by a changing magnetic field, overheating transformers and corroding pipes.

Also: GIC

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · continentPredictability · nowcast-onlyGlobal risk
Satellite space-environment anomalyspace.solar-storm.satellite-anomaly

Charging, single-event upsets or extra drag from the space environment that disable or shorten the life of satellites.

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · extendedFootprint · planetPredictability · nowcast-only
Thermospheric drag surgespace.solar-storm.thermospheric-drag-surge

Swelling of the upper atmosphere during solar and geomagnetic activity that drags low satellites down, losing spacecraft and degrading orbit and collision predictions.

Also: satellite drag, atmospheric drag increase

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · planetPredictability · forecastableGlobal risk
Radiation-belt electron enhancementspace.solar-storm.radiation-belt-enhancement

A build-up of high-energy electrons trapped in the radiation belts that charges and damages satellite electronics for days after a storm.

Also: killer electrons, relativistic electron event

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · shortFootprint · planetPredictability · forecastableGlobal risk
South Atlantic weak-field anomalyspace.solar-storm.south-atlantic-anomaly

A widening region of weak geomagnetic field over the South Atlantic where trapped radiation dips low and repeatedly upsets satellites and orbiting crews.

Also: South Atlantic Anomaly

Origin · naturalOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · forecastableGlobal risk

Impacts and orbital hazards space.orbital

Bodies and debris that strike, enter or collide around Earth, whether natural or made by people.

Near-Earth object approachspace.orbital.near-earth-object

A comet or asteroid on a path that brings it close enough to Earth to carry a non-zero impact probability.

Also: asteroid, comet

Origin · naturalOnset · slowDuration · shortFootprint · planetPredictability · forecastableGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExistential risk
Meteorite impactspace.orbital.meteorite-impact

A natural body striking the surface, producing a crater, a shock wave and ejecta.

Also: asteroid impact

Origin · naturalOnset · instantaneousDuration · momentaryFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskCatastrophic riskExistential risk
Airburstspace.orbital.airburst

A natural object breaking up in the atmosphere and releasing a blast wave that shatters glass and damages structures over a wide area.

Origin · naturalOnset · instantaneousDuration · momentaryFootprint · cityPredictability · unpredictable
Space debrisspace.orbital.space-debris

Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.

Also: orbital debris

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statistical
Orbital collision cascadespace.orbital.orbital-collision-cascade

Collisions that create fragments which cause further collisions, until an orbital band becomes unusable.

Also: Kessler cascade

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · slowDuration · multi-yearFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskEmerging riskExponential risk
Uncontrolled re-entryspace.orbital.uncontrolled-reentry

A spacecraft or rocket stage falling back without control and scattering fragments over inhabited or sea areas.

Also: falling spacecraft

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · rapidDuration · momentaryFootprint · regionPredictability · nowcast-only
Spaceflight accidentspace.orbital.spaceflight-accident

A launch, docking or on-orbit failure that endangers crew, spacecraft or people and property below.

Also: launch failure

Origin · anthropogenicOnset · instantaneousDuration · momentaryFootprint · districtPredictability · unpredictable
Meteoroid stream encounterspace.orbital.meteoroid-stream

Passage of Earth and its satellites through a dense stream of comet debris, raising the chance of hypervelocity hits that damage spacecraft.

Also: meteor storm, meteoroid impact on spacecraft

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · momentaryFootprint · planetPredictability · forecastable
02Relations

54 expert relations

Triggers, amplifications, compound pairs and reductions from the Hazard Standard expert model; 24 lead out of this domain into others.

FromKindToMechanismConfidence
Geomagnetic stormtriggerGeomagnetically induced currentrapid change of the geomagnetic fieldhigh
Geomagnetic stormtriggerIonospheric disturbancestorm energy deposited in the upper atmospherehigh
Geomagnetic stormtriggerSatellite space-environment anomalycharging and increased draghigh
Geomagnetic stormtriggerSatellite-navigation disruptionionospheric gradients degrade positioningmedium
Geomagnetic stormamplifyUncontrolled re-entryheated upper atmosphere increases orbital decaymedium
Solar flare radio blackouttriggerTelecommunications outagesunlit high-frequency radio absorbedhigh
Solar flare radio blackouttriggerEmergency communications failureloss of high-frequency linksmedium
Solar radiation stormtriggerSatellite space-environment anomalyenergetic particles upset electronicshigh
Solar radiation stormtriggerTelecommunications outagepolar radio absorptionmedium
Solar radiation stormtriggerPort or hub closurepolar flight routes closed or divertedlow
Ionospheric disturbancetriggerSatellite-navigation disruptionscintillation degrades satellite signalshigh
Ionospheric disturbancetriggerTelecommunications outageradio propagation changesmedium
Geomagnetically induced currenttriggerWidespread power outagetransformer heating and protective trippingmedium
Geomagnetically induced currentamplifyPipeline ruptureaccelerated corrosion of long pipelineslow
Satellite space-environment anomalytriggerSatellite-navigation disruptionnavigation satellite outagemedium
Satellite space-environment anomalytriggerTelecommunications outagecommunication satellite outagemedium
Satellite space-environment anomalytriggerSpace debrisa dead satellite becomes uncontrolled debrislow
Near-Earth object approachtriggerAirburstthe body breaks up in the atmospheremedium
Near-Earth object approachtriggerMeteorite impactthe body reaches the groundmedium
Meteorite impacttriggerTsunamian ocean impact displaces waterlow
Meteorite impacttriggerWildfirethermal radiation and hot ejectamedium
Meteorite impacttriggerAbrupt climate-system shifta very large impact loads the atmosphere with dust and sootlow
AirbursttriggerFacade and cladding failureblast wave breaks windows over a wide areahigh
AirbursttriggerLarge forest disturbanceblast flattens forestmedium
Space debristriggerOrbital collision cascadecollisions create more fragmentsmedium
Space debristriggerSatellite space-environment anomalysmall-debris strikes damage spacecraftmedium
Orbital collision cascadetriggerSatellite-navigation disruptionloss of navigation satelliteslow
Orbital collision cascadetriggerTelecommunications outageloss of communication satelliteslow
Spaceflight accidenttriggerSpace debrisbreak-up in orbitmedium
Spaceflight accidenttriggerToxic gas releasepropellant release at the launch or crash sitemedium
Meteorite impacttriggerImpact winterlarge impacts loft dust and soothigh
Comet showeramplifyMeteorite impactmore comets cross Earth's orbitmedium
Solar superflaretriggerGeomagnetic storman extreme ejection strikes the magnetospherehigh
Solar superflaretriggerGeomagnetically induced currentextreme field changes drive currents in gridshigh
Solar superflaretriggerSatellite space-environment anomalyradiation and charging disable spacecrafthigh
Geomagnetic reversal or excursionamplifySatellite space-environment anomalyweaker shielding lets more particles reach orbitsmedium
Geomagnetic reversal or excursionamplifySolar radiation stormweaker field admits particles to lower latitudesmedium
Geomagnetic stormtriggerThermospheric drag surgestorm heating expands the thermospherehigh
Geomagnetic stormtriggerRadiation-belt electron enhancementstorm accelerates trapped electronshigh
Geomagnetic stormtriggerSatellite communications outagesatellite anomalies and dragmedium
Thermospheric drag surgeamplifyUncontrolled re-entrydrag brings satellites down earlyhigh
Radiation-belt electron enhancementtriggerSatellite space-environment anomalydeep charging of spacecrafthigh
South Atlantic weak-field anomalyamplifySatellite space-environment anomalyspacecraft pass through dense trapped radiationhigh
Meteoroid stream encountertriggerSatellite space-environment anomalyimpact plasma and hits disturb spacecraftlow
Meteoroid stream encounteramplifySpace debrishits fragment spacecraftlow
Nuclear wartriggerSatellite space-environment anomalyhigh-altitude bursts damage satelliteslow
Geomagnetically induced currenttriggerLoss of large power transformersinduced currents overheat transformer coresmedium
Geomagnetically induced currenttriggerLow-inertia grid instabilityinduced currents disturb transformers and voltagemedium
Non-kinetic counterspace attacktriggerSpace debrisdestroyed satellites fragmenthigh
Orbital collision cascadetriggerConstellation-wide service failuredebris disables many satellitesmedium
Destructive anti-satellite striketriggerSpace debrisdestructive tests create fragmentshigh
Mega-constellation orbital congestionamplifyOrbital collision cascadedense shells raise collision rateshigh
Mega-constellation orbital congestionamplifySpace debrisfailed satellites left in crowded orbitsmedium
Satellite interference with sky observationamplifyNear-Earth object approachstreaks and glare degrade detection surveysmedium
04Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms, standards, learning and working groups across GCRI, GRF and GRA for the systems these hazards act on.

05Standards

Standards that govern this domain

Propose a change to Hazard Standard

Definitions and relations are a draft for expert review; corrections follow the standards development process.