01Overview

Turkiye enters 2027 with rising emissions, a power fleet that has become mostly renewable by capacity, and a hazard regime that joins great earthquakes, drought and fire. Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, and energy supplied 71.8% of the total [2]. The second climate contribution, submitted in November 2025, limits 2035 emissions to 643 Mt CO₂e including land use, which is 466 Mt below the business-as-usual path, and the national goal is net zero by 2053 [3] [4]. Renewables were 62% of installed power capacity at the end of 2025, yet coal still produced 34% of electricity, about two-thirds of it from imported coal [14] [17], and about 67% of primary energy was imported in 2024 [15]. The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces, and the government assessment put recovery and reconstruction needs at about USD 103.6 billion [9] [10] [11]. 2025 was the fifth warmest year in the 55-year record, with rainfall 27.6% below the 1991–2020 mean [8], and the wheat harvest fell to about 17.9 million tonnes [20]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Turkiye’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which seismic, climate and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. Where a figure could not be bound to a published source, the page says so. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 31 December 2025

86.09 million

median age, 2025

34.9 years

emissions, 2024

584.5 Mt CO₂e

primary energy imported, 2024

≈67 %

installed power capacity, end 2025

122.5 GW

living in province and district centres, 2025

93.6 %

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Turkiye matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Marmara-region or North Anatolian great earthquake

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  rupture of faults beneath or near the Sea of Marmara

  Exposure

  the Istanbul region and nearby provinces

  Vulnerability

  building-stock condition not bound in this edition

  Capacity

  compulsory insurance pool; response agency

  Cascade

  SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  30 years

• Multi-year drought and water stress

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  lower rainfall and higher temperature

  Exposure

  cities, irrigated farmland, hydropower

  Vulnerability

  groundwater drawdown; reservoir storage

  Capacity

  storage and transfer works; demand management not bound

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE

  Horizon

  annual to 5 years

• Fuel and gas import disruption

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  price spike or supply interruption

  Exposure

  power, industry, households

  Vulnerability

  about 67% of primary energy imported

  Capacity

  renewable fleet; storage depth not bound

  Cascade

  TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Short harvest and import price exposure

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  drought or frost in a growing season

  Exposure

  wheat, feed and household food budgets

  Vulnerability

  dependence on imports in short years

  Capacity

  stock and trade policy not bound

  Cascade

  CLI → FOO → FIN

  Horizon

  seasonal

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Turkiye’s risk: great earthquakes dominate the tail, drought has become a recurring stress, and import dependence carries shocks into energy and food. Evidence is strongest for emissions, climate and the 2023 event, and weakest for heat-health, lifeline continuity and building-stock condition.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as an earthquake, a dry summer or a price rise. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how drought and import prices reach household budgets, and how earthquake recovery is shared between households, insurers and the state.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. About 58% of residential units hold compulsory earthquake cover, a national emissions trading system is in pilot preparation, and recovery needs after 2023 were large [11] [29] [7]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Turkiye is building clean power quickly, yet water, food and fuel still depend on rainfall and imports. The 2027 programme should test the drought pathway, map lifeline dependencies for one metropolitan area, and measure fuel and wheat import exposure.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a second drought year change reservoir storage, hydropower and urban supply in Istanbul and Ankara?

   INI-TUR-WAT-01 · drought and supply

2. A-02

   How deep are fuel and gas stocks against a prolonged import disruption?

   INI-TUR-ENE-02 · import resilience

3. A-03

   How exposed are wheat, feed and fertiliser supply to a short harvest and import shocks?

   INI-TUR-FOO-03 · food import exposure

4. A-04

   How would a Marmara-region earthquake cut power, transport, water and care together?

   INI-TUR-SEI-04 · lifeline continuity

5. A-05

   Where do earthquake and fire losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?

   INI-TUR-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do heat and wildfire load health and care in summer?

   to be admitted when heat-health data are bound

7. A-07

   How do land-use change and fire affect ecosystem condition outside protected areas?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

46 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Turkiye: country profile. In Turkiye 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.