01Overview

Senegal (République du Sénégal) enters 2027 with 18.1 million residents at the 2023 census, 54.7% of them urban and 39.1% under 15 [1]. The economy grew 6.7% in 2025 as oil production began, while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2% and the IMF describes fiscal and debt vulnerabilities as elevated [12] [13]. Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use, and the 2020 contribution sets a 2030 cut of 7% unconditional and 29.5% conditional against a business-as-usual path [7] [16]. A third contribution was validated nationally in April 2026 with a reported range of 13 to 17%, and its submission was not confirmed at evidence close [17] [18]. Electricity access reached 82.9% in 2024 but only 67.1% in rural areas, and oil supplied about 79% of electricity on the Ember series [6] [15]. Water services show a gap between basic and safe: 88.0% of people used at least basic drinking water in 2024 and 27.2% used safely managed water [5]. Floods in the 2025 rainy season killed 20 people and affected 8,336 [24]. A Rift Valley fever outbreak in the Senegal River valley caused 358 confirmed human cases and 28 deaths by 30 October 2025 [22]. The 2024 cereal harvest was forecast 8% above the five-year average, yet 836,786 people were projected in Crisis or worse for June to August 2026 [20] [21]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Senegal’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which flood, fuel and health shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It reads against peer distributions and thresholds, and it decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 2023 census

18.1 million

urban population, 2023

54.7 %

aged under 15, 2023

39.1 %

emissions excl. land use, 2024

31.7 Mt CO₂e

access to electricity, 2024

82.9 %

poverty at the national line, 2021

37.5 %

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Senegal matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Heavy-rain flooding in a dense urban area

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  intense rainfall over low-lying, built-up land

  Exposure

  Touba: 70,000 people exposed; Lac Rose area: 20,000 vulnerable [24]

  Vulnerability

  schools, roads and homes flooded in 2025; 296 schools affected [25]

  Capacity

  national flood committee since 2019; regional emergency plans [25]

  Cascade

  CLI → INF, WAT, HLT

  Horizon

  annual

• Rift Valley fever in the river valley

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  mosquito-borne spread among livestock and people

  Exposure

  Saint-Louis region held 78% of cases [22]

  Vulnerability

  358 confirmed cases and 28 deaths by 30 Oct 2025 [22]

  Capacity

  joint WHO, FAO and WOAH assessment; national response not bound

  Cascade

  HLT → FOO, FIN

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Fuel and supply exposure of the power system

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  fuel-oil dependence and import exposure

  Exposure

  households, water works, clinics, industry

  Vulnerability

  imports 70% of primary energy supply [14]; oil 79% of electricity [15]

  Capacity

  domestic gas starting; conversion to gas not bound [19] [27]

  Cascade

  ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Coastal erosion and sea-level rise

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  sea-level rise and storm waves on a low coast

  Exposure

  half of people and two-thirds of GDP in coastal zones [19]

  Vulnerability

  75% of coastline at risk; losses 3.3% of GDP [19]

  Capacity

  coastal resilience projects exist; scope not bound [52]

  Cascade

  CLI → INF, WAT, FOO

  Horizon

  5–30 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Senegal’s risk: services reach most people at a basic level and few at a safe one, floods cause deaths each year, and the energy system is changing as oil and gas come on stream. Evidence is strongest for population, access and emissions series, and thinnest for supply deficits, mangroves and recovery capability.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people the risk arrives as a flood, an interrupted water supply or a power cut. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how basic and safe service differ for households and towns.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. The IMF reports elevated fiscal and debt vulnerabilities and a staff-level agreement subject to Board decision [13]. Insured flood loss is not bound. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Senegal publishes a rich census and receives detailed international monitoring. The 2027 programme should map flood, water and power dependencies in two cities, test the urban flood pathway, and bind the missing supply, mangrove and loss series.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a heavy-rain flood in Dakar or Touba interrupt water, power and health services, and how long would recovery take?

   INI-SEN-SYS-01 · urban flood continuity

2. A-02

   Where are people without safely managed water and sanitation, and which regions carry the gap?

   INI-SEN-WAT-02 · safely managed services gap

3. A-03

   How will oil and gas output and domestic gas reshape the power system, emissions and the budget?

   INI-SEN-ENE-03 · gas-to-power and emissions

4. A-04

   How exposed are cereal and rice supply to rainfall, price and import shocks?

   INI-SEN-FOO-04 · food supply exposure

5. A-05

   How do Senegal River floods, Rift Valley fever and irrigated rice link as one health risk?

   INI-SEN-HLT-05 · river valley one health

6. A-06

   How fast is the coast eroding at Saint-Louis and the Petite Côte, and who is exposed?

   INI-SEN-CLI-06 · workstream

7. A-07

   What is the condition of mangroves and forests, and how is it changing?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

55 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Senegal: country profile. In Senegal 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.