01Overview

Saudi Arabia enters 2027 as a hot, arid, hydrocarbon-exporting economy of 35.3 million people that is building a very large renewable fleet while still burning gas and oil for almost all of its electricity [1] [3]. Its reported emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019, and energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use [3]. The second climate contribution, submitted at the end of 2025, aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline it does not publish, sets no target for 2035, and names net zero for 2060 [2] [3] [4]. Gas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024, and solar and wind 2%, although 12.3 GW of renewable capacity was connected by the end of 2025 [2] [3] [7]. Water is the binding constraint: non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural supply in 2023, agriculture was the largest user, and the national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated [2] [13]. Heat is a direct health hazard, as the 1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj show [11]. The kingdom imports most of its grain: FAO forecast 15 million tonnes of cereal imports for 2026/27 [5]. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for these systems, maps the couplings through which heat, water, power and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 2024

35.3 million

of residents under 30, as stated in the national submission

63 %

emissions incl. land use, 2021

709 Mt CO₂e

gas share of electricity, 2024

63 %

of potable water desalinated, per the national submission

≈70 %

of land is desert, per the national submission

>80 %

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Saudi Arabia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Extreme heat and humidity

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  warming of about 0.6 °C a decade; hot, humid Gulf coast

  Exposure

  outdoor workers, pilgrims, older residents

  Vulnerability

  dense gatherings; outdoor work; limited shade

  Capacity

  midday work rule; health-service planning

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  fossil aquifer use; rising demand

  Exposure

  cities supplied by desalination; irrigated farms

  Vulnerability

  a few large plants; limited storage

  Capacity

  Strategic Water Plan 2050; treated-water reuse [2]

  Cascade

  WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE

  Horizon

  5–30 years

• Flash flood and dust storm

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  intense rain on sealed urban areas; strong winds

  Exposure

  Jeddah and other cities; roads and airports

  Vulnerability

  drainage built for rare rain

  Capacity

  weather alerts; regional dust-storm warning work [23]

  Cascade

  CLI → INF → HLT

  Horizon

  annual

• Fuel and power supply under peak demand

  Expert input EQL 2

  Driver

  summer peak; fuel or grid disruption

  Exposure

  power, desalination, industry

  Vulnerability

  gas and oil 98% of generation

  Capacity

  12.3 GW of renewables connected [2]

  Cascade

  ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO

  Horizon

  1–5 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Summer heat peak with a mass gathering. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Saudi Arabia’s risk: heat, scarce water and a fossil-based power system act together. Evidence is strongest for emissions targets, water accounts and trade, and weakest for heat illness, infrastructure condition and capability.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most residents risk arrives as a summer of extreme heat, a sudden flood or a water-supply question. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a young, growing and largely urban population is exposed, and how pilgrims and workers are protected.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Oil revenue carries the public budget, and insurance and reserve data are not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Saudi Arabia is building quickly on supply and thinner on published data for heat illness, reserves and lifeline continuity. The 2027 programme should map heat–power–water dependencies, test the summer peak, and bind the missing series.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a summer heat peak load power, desalination and health services together, and how much margin exists in each?

   INI-SAU-CLI-01 · heat–power–water continuity

2. A-02

   How much of the water supply is non-renewable, region by region, and how fast is it drawn down?

   INI-SAU-WAT-02 · groundwater and desalination

3. A-03

   How much fuel is burned for power and desalination, and what does the 2025 generation mix show?

   INI-SAU-ENE-03 · power mix and fuel

4. A-04

   How concentrated are grain and feed imports, by commodity and origin?

   INI-SAU-FOO-04 · import exposure

5. A-05

   How is heat illness counted among residents, workers and pilgrims?

   INI-SAU-HLT-05 · heat and mass gatherings

6. A-06

   How do flash floods and dust storms affect cities and lifelines?

   INI-SAU-CLI-02 · workstream

7. A-07

   What would a quantified 2035 emissions pathway need from the power and industry sectors?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

45 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Saudi Arabia: country profile. In Saudi Arabia 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.