ReportsIJRG

International Journal of Global Risks and Governance

Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, GCRI
Licence: CC BY 4.0, open access
Report series: 17
Networks: 10

Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Country profile

Republic of Korea: country profile

Abstract. The first annual edition of the Republic of Korea report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

Edition: Republic of Korea 2026
Series: Country Systems Risk and Resilience
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Findings: 12
Sources: 45
Status: Draft in stewardship review

01Overview

The Republic of Korea (대한민국) enters 2027 as a high-income economy of 51.68 million people and about US$1.87 trillion of output in 2025 [2], with one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and an ageing society. Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, yet total fertility stood at 0.63 in Seoul and 1.09 in Jeonnam [1]. In December 2025 Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018, including land use [7], while Climate Action Tracker projects 2030 emissions only 11% to 19% below 2018 under current policies [6]. Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity in 2025 and solar and wind 7% [5], and Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27 [8]. Several national series that this edition set out to bind, among them greenhouse-gas inventory totals, water supply, protected areas, heat illness, wildfire and flood losses, could not be read at evidence close and appear as designed gaps with their source and blocker. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Korea’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which heat, rain, seismic and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 2025: 51.68 million
GDP, 2025: 1.87 US$ trillion
GNI per capita, 2024: 36,624 US$
live births, 2025: 254,300 births
low-carbon electricity, 2025: 40 %
provincial structure and ageing share: Not bound

03Key findings

Key findings
Finding	Status	Quality	Source
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined
		EQL undefined

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Domain reading
System	Reading	Coupling	Status	Quality
WAT	Supply, loss and drought indicators not bound; pipes and basins to be read in 2027.	WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE	NOT BOUND	1
ENE	Fossil fuels 60% of electricity in 2025; low-carbon 40%.	ENE → all	Reported	4
FOO	Cereal imports of 16.7 million tonnes expected in 2026/27.	FOO ← TRD, ENE	Reported	4
HLT	Births up 6.7% in 2025; fertility lowest in Seoul; ageing share not bound.	HLT ← CLI, SEI	Reported	4
BIO	Protected-area coverage not bound.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	NOT BOUND	1
CLI	2035 target 53% to 61% below 2018; 2030 projection 11% to 19%.	forcing on all systems	Reported	3
INF	Dense urban networks; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.	INF → all	Expert input	2
FIN	IMF projects 2.6% growth in 2026; protection gap not bound.	FIN ← SEI, CLI	Reported	3
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input	2
AIC	Semiconductor and data-centre capacity adds power and water demand; not quantified.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input	2
MIN	Critical minerals and fuels imported; stock depth not bound.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input	2
TRD	A trading economy dependent on sea lanes for fuel, grain and inputs.	TRD → all	Expert input	2

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Sector screen
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure	Coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound heat, rain and demographic stress	heat and heavy rain over the capital region	THIN
GS-01	Water	indicators not bound [18]	drought; flood; pipe condition	THIN
GS-02	Energy	60% fossil electricity, 2025 [5]	supply disruption; peak heat demand	PARTIAL
GS-03	Food	16.7 million t cereal imports [8]	import shocks	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	low and uneven fertility [1]	heat surge; care continuity	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	IMF growth 2.6% [4]	catastrophe fiscal cost	THIN
GS-06	Development	regional fertility gap [1]	service withdrawal	THIN
GS-07	Climate	2035 target [7]	heat, rain and fire	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	loss records not bound [15]	floods, typhoons, wildfire, earthquake	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	condition not bound	maintenance backlog	THIN
GS-10	Cities	dense metropolitan regions	urban flooding and heat	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	indicators not bound [19]	land-use and climate pressure	THIN
GS-12	Earth observation	national weather service data not read [14]	continuity	THIN
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	carbon neutrality framework [10]	coordination across levels	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	peer-reviewed seismic analysis [43]	translation to regions	THIN

06System couplings

The Republic of Korea matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

System couplings
Coupling	Strength	Carried by
WAT to ENE	Strong	nuclear cooling · hydro
WAT to FOO	Strong	irrigation · rain-fed yield
WAT to HLT	Moderate	drinking water
WAT to BIO	Strong	flows · wetlands
ENE to WAT	Moderate	pumping · treatment
ENE to FOO	Strong	fuel · fertiliser · cold chain
ENE to HLT	Strong	facility power · cooling
ENE to BIO	Moderate	reservoirs · land use
FOO to WAT	Moderate	withdrawals · nutrients
FOO to ENE	Weak	biofuel feedstock
FOO to HLT	Strong	nutrition · food safety
FOO to BIO	Strong	land conversion
HLT to WAT	Weak	workforce
HLT to ENE	Weak	workforce
HLT to FOO	Moderate	labour · disease
HLT to BIO	Weak	residues
BIO to WAT	Strong	regulation · filtration
BIO to ENE	Moderate	fire on lines · biomass
BIO to FOO	Strong	pollination · soils
BIO to HLT	Moderate	zoonoses · smoke

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

Induced or natural earthquake near dense industry
Reported EQL 3
Driver
natural or induced seismicity
Exposure
industrial and urban areas
Vulnerability
not bound at public-safe resolution
Capacity
not bound
Cascade
SEI → INF, ENE
Horizon
30 years
Heavy rain, typhoon and urban flooding
Expert input EQL 2
Driver
more intense rainfall and typhoons
Exposure
dense cities and floodplains
Vulnerability
not bound
Capacity
not bound
Cascade
CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
Horizon
annual
Heat and demographic change loading health and care
Expert input EQL 2
Driver
longer, hotter summers
Exposure
older adults; outdoor workers
Vulnerability
ageing share not bound [20]
Capacity
heat illness records not bound [16]
Cascade
CLI → HLT → ENE peak
Horizon
seasonal
Fuel and gas supply disruption
Expert input EQL 2
Driver
shipping disruption or price spike
Exposure
power, industry, households
Vulnerability
stock depth not bound [21]
Capacity
not bound
Cascade
TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
Horizon
1–5 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Capability ladder
Function	Level	Evidence
Prevention and mitigation	Not bound	source: building and land-use records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observation	Not bound	source: national weather and seismic service records [14] · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Early warning	Not bound	source: weather service and disaster agency records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planning	Not bound	source: national disaster safety plans [44] · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Redundancy and reserves	Not bound	source: energy and grain reserve records [21] · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Response	Not bound	source: disaster agency records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Continuity of critical services	Not bound	source: operator continuity records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Recovery	Not bound	source: recovery programme records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Adaptation	Not bound	source: national adaptation plans · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Social protection	Not bound	source: national social insurance records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Finance and insurance	Not bound	source: Bank of Korea and regulator reports [22] · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Institutional coordination	Not bound	source: national framework acts [10] [44] · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Technical infrastructure	Not bound	source: operator asset records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Workforce	Not bound	source: ministry workforce statistics · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Research capacity	Not bound	source: national research statistics · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close

09Scenario

Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

Scenario assumptions
Assumption	Setting
Baseline	the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers	a prolonged summer heat wave followed within weeks by a heavy-rain and typhoon event over a dense metropolitan region
Analogues	not bound; event records are a designed gap [15] [16]
Interventions	none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state	narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

Technical Truth
GCRI · KEY T
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Korea’s risk: a demanding climate target, an electricity mix still 60% fossil, heavy reliance on imported cereals and a low, uneven fertility rate. Evidence is strongest for the electricity mix and the target, and weakest for water, nature, heat and loss records, which are not bound.
Public Meaning
GRF · KEY M
For most people risk arrives as a heat wave, a typhoon warning or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how regional differences in fertility and ageing change who can be reached and how fast places recover.
Capital Meaning
GRA · KEY F
Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the target range asks for large investment in the power system. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
Synthesis
NEXUS
Korea’s demographic and electricity series are readable now; water, heat, wildfire and nature series are not. The 2027 programme should bind them, map capital-region lifeline dependencies, and measure fuel and grain import exposure.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Portfolio
Code	Object	Kind	Answers	Status
INI-KOR-CLI-01	Capital region lifelines under heat and rain	Initiative	A-01	Proposed
INI-KOR-ENE-02	Fuel and gas import resilience	Initiative	A-02	Proposed
INI-KOR-FOO-03	Food and feed import exposure	Initiative	A-03	Proposed
INI-KOR-HLT-04	Demographic change and service demand	Initiative	A-04	Proposed
INI-KOR-FIN-05	Disaster protection gap	Initiative	A-05	Proposed
PRJ-KOR-CLI-01a	Capital region lifeline dependency graph	Project	A-01	Proposed
MSN-KOR-2027-01	Heat and rain compound Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

A-01
How would a heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region load power, water, transport and care together?
INI-KOR-CLI-01 · capital region lifelines
A-02
How deep are fuel and gas stocks against a prolonged shipping disruption?
INI-KOR-ENE-02 · import resilience
A-03
How exposed are food and feed supply to concurrent import and domestic shocks?
INI-KOR-FOO-03 · food import exposure
A-04
How does a low and uneven fertility rate change service demand across regions?
INI-KOR-HLT-04 · demographic change
A-05
Where do flood, typhoon and wildfire losses fall on the uninsured and on public budgets?
INI-KOR-FIN-05 · protection gap
A-06
How do river basins and dams perform under more intense rainfall and drought?
INI-KOR-WAT-01 · workstream
A-07
How resilient are semiconductor and data-centre supply chains to power and water shocks?
to be admitted in Q1 2027
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?
national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

Illustrative Structure only. The strengths fill in when real NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) cuts exist.

No relation strengths yet.

Cells read no cut. No strength is drawn or implied.

No value to show. Source: Index (NXS-GRX) public API, series and relation classes. Blocker: The Index publishes no value until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut.

Risk: 6 sectors, 15 relations

Fifteen relations between six sectors. Strength is shown only when a cut supplies it.
Sector	Water	Energy	Infrastructure	Food	Health	Biodiversity
Water	·	no cut	no cut	no cut	no cut	no cut
Energy	See Water to Energy	·	no cut	no cut	no cut	no cut
Infrastructure	See Water to Infrastructure	See Energy to Infrastructure	·	no cut	no cut	no cut
Food	See Water to Food	See Energy to Food	See Infrastructure to Food	·	no cut	no cut
Health	See Water to Health	See Energy to Health	See Infrastructure to Health	See Food to Health	·	no cut
Biodiversity	See Water to Biodiversity	See Energy to Biodiversity	See Infrastructure to Biodiversity	See Food to Biodiversity	See Health to Biodiversity	·

Response: 6 pillars

Labs
Explore, experiment and prototype
Foundry
Build, simulate and prepare
Universe
Convene and test
Nexus Standards
Codify, correct and apply
Reports
Publish in every format
Risk Academy
Teach in the open

Each pillar answers a relation through its verb. A relation with no cut has no response claimed.

14Evidence by system

Evidence by system
System	Findings	Status	Basis
Climate · forcing	2	Reported	2023 and later inventory totals; extreme-event losses
Seismic	1	Reported	lifeline fragility by province
Energy	1	Reported	fuel import depth; grid resilience
Food	1	Reported	import concentration by commodity
Health and population	3	Reported	ageing share; heat illness; care continuity
Water and biodiversity	2	NOT BOUND	supply, loss and drought; protected areas
Finance	1	Reported	protection gap; public asset cover
Cross-system	1	Expert input	heat and rain compound test

15Sources

45 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Republic of Korea: country profile. In Republic of Korea 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.

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