01Overview

Japan enters 2027 with record-low emissions, a shrinking and ageing population and one of the world’s most demanding hazard regimes. Greenhouse-gas emissions fell to 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023, 23.3% below FY2013 and 27.1% lower once forest removals are counted, as renewables and nuclear together passed 30% of electricity [1] [2]. The country has set reductions of 60% by FY2035 and 73% by FY2040 against FY2013 [3]. Yet Japan still imports almost all of its fuel, grows only 38% of its food on a calorie basis [16] and faces a Nankai Trough megaquake that the national evaluation puts at a high probability within thirty years [10]. 2024 was the warmest year on record [7], heatstroke sent about 97,600 people to hospital by ambulance in the summer of 2024 [12], and the January 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake showed how an ageing, remote region loses water, roads and care at once [11]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Japan’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which seismic, climate and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, October 2024

123.8 million

aged 65 or over

29.3 %

emissions, FY2023

1,071 Mt CO₂e

food self-sufficiency (calories)

38 %

energy self-sufficiency, FY2023

≈15 %

in eight regions

47 prefectures

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Japan matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Nankai Trough or Tokyo-area great earthquake

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  subduction-zone or inland megaquake with tsunami

  Exposure

  Pacific coast industry, ports, cities

  Vulnerability

  older buildings; coastal plants; ageing population

  Capacity

  seismic codes; early warning; evacuation

  Cascade

  SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN, TRD

  Horizon

  30 years

• Heavy rain, typhoon and river flooding

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  more intense rainfall and stronger typhoons

  Exposure

  floodplains, steep catchments, cities

  Vulnerability

  older levees; landslide-prone slopes

  Capacity

  basin-wide flood control; warnings

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → INF, HLT

  Horizon

  annual

• Heat and ageing overload of health and care

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  longer, hotter summers

  Exposure

  older adults living alone; outdoor workers

  Vulnerability

  limited cooling; workforce shortages

  Capacity

  heat alerts; cooling shelters

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT → ENE peak

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Fuel and LNG supply disruption

  Inferred EQL 3

  Driver

  shipping disruption or price spike

  Exposure

  power, industry, households

  Vulnerability

  near-total import dependence

  Capacity

  oil stockpiles; nuclear and renewables

  Cascade

  TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

  Horizon

  1–5 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Great earthquake in an ageing region. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Japan’s risk: great earthquakes dominate the tail, climate extremes are rising, and ageing magnifies both. Evidence is strongest for emissions, hazards and early warning, and weakest for lifeline–care continuity and digital dependencies.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as an earthquake alert, a heat wave or a typhoon warning. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how an older, smaller population changes who can evacuate, who can respond and how fast places recover.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. About a third of homes hold earthquake cover, public assets are largely uninsured, and climate disclosure standards apply from 2025 [26]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Japan is strong at warning and response and thinner at keeping water, care and supply running for weeks. The 2027 programme should map lifeline–care dependencies, test the Noto pattern at scale, and measure fuel and food import exposure.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a large earthquake in an ageing region cut water, power, roads and care together, and how long would recovery take?

   INI-JPN-SEI-01 · lifeline–care continuity

2. A-02

   How deep are fuel and LNG stocks against a prolonged shipping disruption?

   INI-JPN-ENE-02 · import resilience

3. A-03

   How exposed are food and feed supply to concurrent import and domestic shocks?

   INI-JPN-FOO-03 · food import exposure

4. A-04

   How much heat-health surge capacity remains in large cities and rural care?

   INI-JPN-HLT-04 · heat and ageing

5. A-05

   Where do typhoon and heavy-rain losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?

   INI-JPN-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do river basins and dams perform under more intense rainfall?

   INI-JPN-WAT-01 · workstream

7. A-07

   How resilient are semiconductor and battery supply chains to seismic shocks?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

44 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Japan: country profile. In Japan 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.