01Overview

Indonesia (Republik Indonesia) enters 2027 as an economy of 285.7 million people and about US$1.45 trillion of output in 2025, growing 5.1% that year [1] [3]. Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use reached 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 in 2023 [4]. Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity in 2024 and hydro 7.4%, while wind and solar supplied 0.5% [8]. Climate Action Tracker rates the overall national effort critically insufficient and puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 112% in 2030 and 141% in 2035 [9]. Indonesia is a net energy exporter, yet its food system leans on trade in wheat: the FAO forecasts near-record imports of 11.5 million tonnes in 2025/26, while the 2025 paddy crop was put at 59 million tonnes [10]. Floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra at the turn of 2025 and 2026 caused crop losses [10]. Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023 [6]. Hazard loss records, the national inventory, water supply, food balance and ministry series could not be read at evidence close and appear as designed gaps with their source and blocker. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Indonesia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which rain, geophysical and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 2025

285.7 million

GDP, 2025

1.45 US$ trillion

GNI per capita, Atlas method, 2025

5,120 US$

urban population, 2025

59.4 %

administrative units

38 provinces

provincial population structure

Not bound

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Indonesia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Heavy rain, flood and landslide

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  intense rainfall on steep and flat terrain

  Exposure

  floodplains, hill settlements, rice land

  Vulnerability

  not bound at public-safe resolution

  Capacity

  not bound

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → INF, FOO, HLT

  Horizon

  annual

• Harvest loss and import shock

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  crop losses and grain price spikes

  Exposure

  rice and maize growers; wheat-based foods

  Vulnerability

  self-sufficiency not bound [22]

  Capacity

  reserve stocks not bound [22]

  Cascade

  TRD → FOO → HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Fossil dependence and supply disruption

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  fuel price spike or plant outage

  Exposure

  power, industry, households

  Vulnerability

  generation by fuel not bound [20]

  Capacity

  reserve margins not bound [21]

  Cascade

  ENE → HLT, FOO, FIN

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Geophysical hazards and subsidence near dense settlement

  Expert input EQL 2

  Driver

  earthquake, volcanic or subsidence processes

  Exposure

  cities, ports, coasts

  Vulnerability

  not bound; land subsidence in Jakarta documented [51]

  Capacity

  not bound

  Cascade

  SEI → INF, WAT, HLT

  Horizon

  30 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Indonesia’s risk: rising emissions, an electricity mix that is 82% fossil, high wheat imports and recent flood losses on Sumatra. Evidence is strongest for emissions, the power mix and crop outlooks, and weakest for water, hazard losses, nature and the national inventory, which are not bound.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a flood, a landslide or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how island geography changes who can be reached and how fast places recover.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the effort gap to a 1.5 °C pathway points to large investment in the power system. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Indonesia’s emissions, power, crop and nutrition series are readable now; water, hazard-loss, inventory and nature series are not. The 2027 programme should bind them, map island lifeline dependencies, and measure grain import exposure.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands cut roads, power, markets and harvests together?

   INI-IDN-CLI-01 · island lifelines

2. A-02

   How deep are fuel, coal and grid reserves against a supply or price shock?

   INI-IDN-ENE-02 · power system resilience

3. A-03

   How exposed are rice, maize and wheat supply to concurrent domestic and import shocks?

   INI-IDN-FOO-03 · food import exposure

4. A-04

   How do stunting, ageing and urbanisation change service demand across provinces?

   INI-IDN-HLT-04 · population and nutrition

5. A-05

   Where do flood, landslide and earthquake losses fall on the uninsured and on public budgets?

   INI-IDN-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do river basins and reservoirs perform under more intense rainfall and drought?

   INI-IDN-WAT-01 · workstream

7. A-07

   How do land subsidence and sea-level exposure in the capital region combine with flood risk?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

57 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Indonesia: country profile. In Indonesia 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.