01Overview

France enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions to 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but at a pace the High Council for the Climate judges too slow for the 2030 target of 270 Mt [1] [3] [40]. Its electricity is about 95% low-carbon and the country exported a record volume of power in 2024 [7], yet the same nuclear fleet showed its exposure in 2022, when corrosion repairs and heat-limited cooling cut output to its lowest level since 1988 [25]. 2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France [8], and heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024, three quarters of them among people aged 75 and over [4]. About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence [21] and 17.1 million residents to river flooding [22]. France produces nearly a fifth of the EU’s agricultural output [23], while farmland birds have declined by about 30% since 1989 [18]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 1 January 2025

68.6 million

emissions, 2024

369 Mt CO₂e

low-carbon electricity, 2024

≈95 %

of EU agricultural output

≈18 %

carbon footprint per person, 2023

9.4 t CO₂e

residents exposed to river flooding

17.1 million

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The France matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Extreme heat

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  heatwaves above 40 °C; tropical nights

  Exposure

  people aged 75 and over; dense cities

  Vulnerability

  isolation; housing without cooling

  Capacity

  heat-health alerts; national heatwave plan

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE cooling demand

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Drought and low river flows

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  dry winters; hot summers

  Exposure

  nuclear cooling, irrigation, drinking water

  Vulnerability

  three uses sharing the same low flows

  Capacity

  water restrictions; Plan Eau [11]

  Cascade

  WAT → ENE, FOO, HLT

  Horizon

  seasonal · 5 years

• Clay shrink-swell subsidence

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  repeated droughts drying clay soils

  Exposure

  10.4 million detached houses [21]

  Vulnerability

  shallow foundations

  Capacity

  CatNat cover [15]; building standards

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → FIN → households

  Horizon

  1–10 years

• River and Mediterranean flash flooding

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  intense autumn storms; river floods

  Exposure

  17.1 million residents [22]

  Vulnerability

  building in flood-prone areas

  Capacity

  flood forecasting; risk-prevention plans

  Cascade

  CLI → INF, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  annual

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Hot, dry summer with low river flows. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of French risk. Heat, drought and low flows already constrain electricity, harvests and health; flood and subsidence losses fall on a shared insurance regime. Evidence is strongest for emissions, heat mortality and power output, and weakest for overseas exposure and cross-system dependencies.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a cracked wall or a water restriction. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh how the CatNat regime shares costs as claims rise.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. A national catastrophe regime under rising claims [14], a low-carbon grid exposed to cooling limits [25] and a slowing emissions trend [3] show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  France has a low-carbon power system and strong institutions, but its systems share the same summer rivers. The 2027 programme should test the hot, dry summer pathway, measure CatNat exposure by peril and region, and map water allocation in the main basins.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a hot, dry summer with low river flows constrain nuclear and hydro output while heat and drought load health services and harvests?

   INI-FRA-HDN-01 · heat–drought–nuclear summer

2. A-02

   How sustainable is the CatNat regime as drought subsidence, floods and hail claims grow?

   INI-FRA-FIN-02 · CatNat exposure

3. A-03

   How should water be shared between irrigation, cooling and drinking water in dry summers?

   INI-FRA-WAT-03 · basin allocation

4. A-04

   What heat surge capacity exists for people aged 75 and over, at home and in care?

   INI-FRA-HLT-04 · heat surge readiness

5. A-05

   How far north and west is wildfire risk spreading, and which communities are newly exposed?

   INI-FRA-CLI-05 · wildfire expansion

6. A-06

   How exposed are the overseas territories to cyclones, water shortage and supply disruption?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

7. A-07

   How are farmland habitats and pollination changing, and what does that mean for yields?

   with GS-11 Biodiversity

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

40 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). France: country profile. In France 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.