01Overview

The European Union enters 2027 with falling emissions, a rising share of renewable energy and a set of shared hazards that cross every border. Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024, and the legal 2040 target is a 90% net cut [1] [4]. Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy in 2024 against a 2030 target of 42.5%, and imports still cover 57% of energy needs [7] [8] [11]. Russian gas fell from 45% of gas imports to 12% in 2025, and a phase-out regulation has been in force since 3 February 2026 [9] [10]. Europe was warmer than ever recorded in 2024, a study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in that summer [16] [17], and the EU burnt a record 1,079,538 hectares in 2025 [22]. Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured [23]. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for the Union’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which heat, supply and price shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 1 January 2026

452.0 million

aged 65 or over, 2025

22.0 %

net domestic emissions below 1990, 2024

40 %

energy import dependency, 2024

57 %

renewables in final energy, 2024

25.2 %

in the Union at evidence close

27 member states

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The European Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Heat, drought and wildfire in a single season

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  longer, hotter summers

  Exposure

  southern and central member states; forests and protected sites

  Vulnerability

  older population; scarcity on 28% of land [19]

  Capacity

  civil protection mechanism and rescEU [41]

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT, HLT, BIO, ENE

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Gas supply disruption during the Russian phase-out

  Inferred EQL 3

  Driver

  loss of remaining Russian volumes or an LNG price spike

  Exposure

  power, industry, heating

  Vulnerability

  imports cover 57% of energy [8]

  Capacity

  storage rules and stockpiling strategy [12] [40]

  Cascade

  TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

  Horizon

  1 to 3 years

• Uninsured catastrophe losses reach public budgets

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  floods, storms, heat and fire

  Exposure

  households and public infrastructure

  Vulnerability

  less than 20% of losses insured [23]

  Capacity

  national schemes; an EIOPA and ECB proposal [26]

  Cascade

  CLI → FIN → public budgets

  Horizon

  annual

• Heat and vector-borne disease load on health systems

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  longer summers and warmer seasons for mosquitoes

  Exposure

  older adults; southern regions

  Vulnerability

  22.0% of the population aged 65 or over [14]

  Capacity

  ECDC surveillance in operation [33] [34]

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT → ENE peak

  Horizon

  seasonal

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Compound summer of heat, drought and fire. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union’s risk: heat, drought and fire are rising, imports still shape energy security, and finance is thin. Evidence is strongest for emissions, energy and climate monitoring, and weakest for care capacity, fertiliser dependence and digital dependencies.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a fire or a bill. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how an older population changes who is exposed, and how a shared market spreads supply and price shocks across borders.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Less than 20% of losses were privately insured, and an EIOPA and ECB proposal for an EU-level scheme is under discussion [23] [26]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation to invest.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  The Union is strong at monitoring and law-making and thinner at keeping water, health care and supply running through simultaneous multi-country events. The 2027 programme should map cross-border dependencies, test the compound summer and measure gas, fertiliser and care exposure.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a season of heat, drought and fire hit health, water, farming and power across several member states at once?

   INI-EU-CLI-01 · compound summer stress

2. A-02

   How resilient is gas supply through the Russian phase-out, with storage, LNG and pipeline routes?

   INI-EU-ENE-02 · gas supply resilience

3. A-03

   How exposed are food systems to fertiliser and feed import shocks?

   INI-EU-FOO-03 · food input exposure

4. A-04

   How much heat-health surge capacity exists, and where do mosquito-borne diseases add load?

   INI-EU-HLT-04 · heat and new diseases

5. A-05

   Where do flood, fire and storm losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?

   INI-EU-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do shared river basins perform under drought and flood?

   INI-EU-WAT-01 · workstream

7. A-07

   How resilient are critical raw material and digital supply chains to concentrated supply?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   EU capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

49 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). European Union: country profile. In European Union 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.