01Overview

Germany enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990, while closing its last nuclear reactors in April 2023 and ending its reliance on Russian pipeline gas within a year [1] [16] [17]. Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 2024 [7]. 2024 was the warmest year in the national record [8]. The floods of July 2021 killed more than 180 people, 135 of them in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion [14] [15], yet only about 54% of homes carry natural-hazard insurance [13]. Low water on the Rhine in 2018 and 2022 restricted freight and industrial supply [24]; about 500,000 hectares of forest were damaged by drought, heat and bark beetles between 2018 and 2021 [20]; and flying-insect biomass fell by more than 75% over 27 years in protected areas [18]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, end 2024

83.6 million

emissions, 2024

649 Mt CO₂e

renewable electricity, 2024

≈54 %

mean temperature, 2024 record

10.9 °C

homes with natural-hazard cover

≈54 %

forest damaged, 2018–2021

500k hectares

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Germany matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Flash floods in small, steep catchments

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  stationary storms with extreme rainfall

  Exposure

  valley towns in upland regions

  Vulnerability

  short warning times; uninsured homes [13]

  Capacity

  flood forecasting; civil protection; reconstruction funds

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  annual

• Low water on the Rhine

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  dry summers; low snowmelt from the Alps

  Exposure

  freight, chemical and steel supply chains

  Vulnerability

  reliance on one waterway for bulk freight

  Capacity

  part-loading; rail and road diversion

  Cascade

  WAT → TRD → industry, ENE

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Extreme heat

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  heatwaves and tropical nights

  Exposure

  older people; dense cities

  Vulnerability

  housing without cooling; isolation

  Capacity

  heat-health warnings; heat action plans

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Forest dieback under drought and pests

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  drought, heat and bark beetles

  Exposure

  spruce-dominated forests

  Vulnerability

  monocultures planted for cooler climates

  Capacity

  forest conversion programmes

  Cascade

  CLI → BIO → WAT, carbon

  Horizon

  5–30 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of German risk. Extreme rain, low rivers, heat and forest dieback are already recorded, and the energy system has shown it can absorb a supply shock. Evidence is strongest for emissions, floods and energy, and weakest for cross-system dependencies.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a flooded valley, a heatwave or an energy bill. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries flood losses when nearly half of homes are uninsured.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Thin natural-hazard cover [13], a large new infrastructure fund [40] and an energy system in transition [7] show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Germany has rebuilt its energy system fast and observes its risks well, but its rivers, forests and valleys carry growing exposure. The 2027 programme should test the hot, dry Rhine summer, map flash-flood exposure and measure who carries the losses.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a hot, dry summer with low Rhine water travel through freight, industrial supply, power, forests and health at the same time?

   INI-DEU-HDR-01 · hot, dry Rhine summer

2. A-02

   Where are small, steep catchments most exposed to flash floods like those of 2021, and how much warning do they get?

   INI-DEU-FLD-02 · flash-flood exposure

3. A-03

   How would wider natural-hazard insurance change who carries flood and heavy-rain losses?

   INI-DEU-FIN-03 · cover and fiscal backstop

4. A-04

   How much grid flexibility remains as coal exits and heating and transport electrify?

   INI-DEU-ENE-04 · grid flexibility

5. A-05

   What heat surge capacity exists for older people at home and in care?

   INI-DEU-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness

6. A-06

   How are forests recovering after 2018–2021, and what does that mean for water and carbon?

   with GS-11 Biodiversity

7. A-07

   How do insect declines affect pollination and yields?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

40 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Germany: country profile. In Germany 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.