01Overview

Switzerland (Schweiz, Suisse, Svizzera) enters 2027 with 9.13 million residents [1], and people aged 65 or over (about 1.81 million) now outnumber those under 20 (about 1.80 million) [2]. Its risks come from mountains and from water. The 2025 mean temperature was 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm, the fourth-warmest year since records began in 1864 [12], and glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 [13]. On 28 May 2025 the Birch Glacier collapsed under rock debris and buried most of Blatten, and insurers put the insured damage at CHF 255 million [14] [16]. In 2026 a snow-poor winter and a dry spring left about one-fifth of monitoring stations at a record low for the season between April and July [19], Lake Zurich at its lowest level since records began in 1951 [20], and hydropower reservoirs at 46% full in mid-July, 16.4 points below the 20-year average [8]. Emissions were 40.1 MtCO₂e in 2024, 27.3% below 1990 [3], against a second contribution that sets a cut of at least 65% by 2035 [4]. Hydropower gave 55.5% of domestic generation in 2025 and nuclear power 27.2% [6]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Switzerland’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, slope failure and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

02At a glance

population, 31 December 2025

9.13 million

people aged 65+, provisional, 2025

1.81 million

greenhouse gases, 2024

40.1 MtCO₂e

hydropower share of generation, 2025

55.5 %

forest area protected, 2022

7 %

GDP growth, 2025

1.4 %

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Switzerland matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  snow deficit, dry spring and heat across the Plateau and the Alps

  Exposure

  hydropower, river and lake levels, pastures, forests

  Vulnerability

  winter import dependence; thin groundwater monitoring [22]

  Capacity

  reservoir storage reported weekly [8]; reserve status not bound

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → ENE, FOO, BIO, FIN

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Rock, ice or debris avalanche above a settlement

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  rock failure, glacier load and permafrost change

  Exposure

  Alpine villages, roads, rail and power lines

  Vulnerability

  settlements in the run-out zone; a scenario of 5 million m³ is analysed [24]

  Capacity

  monitoring and evacuation worked at Blatten; one death outside the zone [14] [15]

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → INF, FIN

  Horizon

  annual

• Heatwave load on health services and older residents

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  hotter summers and tropical nights

  Exposure

  cities and Ticino, which was particularly affected in 2024 [17]

  Vulnerability

  ageing population [2]

  Capacity

  heat-mortality monitoring runs to July 2026 [17]

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT → ENE peak

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Prolonged winter power shortage

  Inferred EQL 2

  Driver

  low reservoirs, import limits and plant outages

  Exposure

  households, industry, rail, health facilities

  Vulnerability

  winter demand above domestic generation

  Capacity

  national risk analysis treats a 30% shortfall for 12 weeks [24]

  Cascade

  ENE → all

  Horizon

  seasonal

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Switzerland’s risk: Alpine ice and snow set the water, power and slope hazards together, and public finances are strong. Evidence is strongest for emissions, electricity and the Blatten event, and weakest for food self-sufficiency, groundwater storage and lifeline continuity.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a dry summer, a hot week or a closed road. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how age and place change who carries a heatwave or a slope failure.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Insured hazard losses sit with a private pool, and the IMF frames fiscal room [16] [28]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Switzerland holds long weather, glacier and energy records, and thinner evidence on groundwater, reserves and service continuity. The 2027 programme should test the dry-year, reservoir and winter chain, bind a heat-mortality series for 2025 and bind the self-sufficiency rate.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows cut hydropower, raise winter imports and strain farms and forests together?

   INI-CHE-WAT-01 · dry-year, reservoir and winter test

2. A-02

   How does winter electricity supply hold when reservoirs start low and nuclear and import options change?

   INI-CHE-ENE-02 · winter supply

3. A-03

   How exposed are farms and pastures to drought and heat, and how much of the food supply is domestic?

   INI-CHE-FOO-03 · farm exposure

4. A-04

   How much surge capacity do health services hold for heat, and who among older residents is most exposed?

   INI-CHE-HLT-04 · heat and ageing

5. A-05

   Where do rock avalanches, floods and storms fall on uninsured losses and public budgets?

   INI-CHE-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do glacier loss and permafrost change slope hazard above villages and lifelines?

   INI-CHE-CLI-01 · glaciers and slopes

7. A-07

   How would the electricity agreement with the European Union or a change to the nuclear ban alter system risk?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only listed?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

62 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Switzerland: country profile. In Switzerland 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.