01Overview

The African Union enters 2027 with a growing and young population, an economy that grew 4.1% in 2025 on the World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa measure, and large gaps in the services that tie water, energy, food and health together [4] [13] [6]. In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, 22.9% had clean cooking, 32.4% had safely managed drinking water and 25.9% had safely managed sanitation [17] [18] [22] [23]. The prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, and agriculture employed 49.8% of workers [16] [15]. WMO reported that 2024 was one of the warmest years on record for Africa and that the continent had its warmest decade on record [2]. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for the Union’s five core systems, maps the couplings through which heat, drought, price and disease shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. The data read at close cover Sub-Saharan Africa only, so every figure is labelled with that scope and the AU-wide totals are shown as empty states. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

people, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2025

1.32 billion

aged under 15, 2025

40.4 %

aged 65 or over, 2025

3.2 %

urban population, 2025

44.7 %

GDP, current prices, 2025

2.21 USD trillion

in the Union at evidence close

55 member states

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The African Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Drought across several member states in one season

  Inferred EQL 3

  Driver

  failed rains and heat in several regions at once

  Exposure

  farming households and rain-fed systems; 49.8% of employment [15]

  Vulnerability

  undernourishment 22.3% [16]

  Capacity

  AU climate strategy [30]; early warning not assessed here

  Cascade

  CLI → FOO, WAT, HLT

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Household and clinic power and cooking gaps persist

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  slow pace of access gains

  Exposure

  households without electricity or clean cooking

  Vulnerability

  55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking [17] [18]

  Capacity

  Mission 300 declaration [36]

  Cascade

  ENE → HLT, WAT, FOO

  Horizon

  1 to 5 years

• Outbreaks cross borders faster than response

  Inferred EQL 3

  Driver

  cholera, mpox and other pathogens

  Exposure

  dense settlements and mobile populations

  Vulnerability

  safely managed water 32.4%; sanitation 25.9% [22] [23]

  Capacity

  Africa CDC communiqués in operation [3]

  Cascade

  WAT → HLT → FOO, FIN

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Uninsured disaster losses reach public budgets

  Expert input EQL 2

  Driver

  floods, drought, storms and cyclones

  Exposure

  households and public infrastructure

  Vulnerability

  loss and insured-share data not read in this edition

  Capacity

  national schemes; not assessed

  Cascade

  CLI → FIN → public budgets

  Horizon

  annual

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Compound drought, price and outbreak year. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union’s risk: services are thin, farming employs half of workers and the climate record is warming. Evidence is strongest for population, access and mortality series and weakest for losses, capacity and AU-wide totals.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a dry tap or a dark clinic. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a young population and growing cities change who needs which service first.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Disaster loss and insured-share data were not read, so the protection gap is not sized. This shows where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation to invest.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  The Union has strong frameworks and thinner evidence on whether water, health care and power keep running through simultaneous multi-country events. The 2027 programme should map cross-border dependencies, test the compound year and measure access, price and outbreak exposure.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a drought year across several member states hit food, water, health and incomes at once?

   INI-AU-CLI-01 · compound drought stress

2. A-02

   How fast can electricity and clean cooking reach people, and what limits the pace?

   INI-AU-ENE-02 · access pace

3. A-03

   How exposed are food systems to price and input shocks?

   INI-AU-FOO-03 · food price exposure

4. A-04

   How much outbreak response and care capacity exists, and how fast does it move across borders?

   INI-AU-HLT-04 · outbreak response

5. A-05

   Who carries disaster losses, and how large is the protection gap?

   INI-AU-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do shared river basins and lakes perform under drought and flood?

   INI-AU-WAT-01 · workstream

7. A-07

   How resilient are mineral and digital supply chains to concentrated demand?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   AU capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

51 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). African Union: country profile. In African Union 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.