01Overview

The United States enters 2027 as the country carrying the largest share of the world’s recorded disaster losses. North America accounted for US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% of it insured, led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion [2]. There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024 [15], and the contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average [3]. Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005 [1]. Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028 [6], and heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023 [9]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel between them, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 2024

340.1 million

warming since 1970

1.4 °C

gross emissions, 2022

6,343 Mt CO₂e

electricity from natural gas

≈43 %

on the critical list

50 minerals

billion-dollar disasters, 2024

27 events

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The United States matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Wildfire at the urban edge, with insurance retreat

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  heat, drought and wind; longer fire seasons

  Exposure

  wildland–urban interface communities

  Vulnerability

  rising premiums and non-renewals [21]

  Capacity

  fire services; building codes; residual insurers

  Cascade

  CLI → BIO → HLT · CLI → FIN

  Horizon

  seasonal · 1 and 5 years

• Grid failure in heat or cold extremes

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  extreme heat and cold; new load growth

  Exposure

  regions with thin reserve margins [32]

  Vulnerability

  winterisation gaps; gas–power interdependence [31]

  Capacity

  interconnection; demand response; storage

  Cascade

  ENE → WAT → HLT

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Western drought and Colorado River shortage

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  low flows; heat; over-allocation

  Exposure

  cities, farms and hydropower of the Southwest

  Vulnerability

  reservoirs near minimum levels

  Capacity

  shortage rules; conservation; groundwater

  Cascade

  WAT → ENE, FOO, cities

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  warmer oceans; heavier rainfall

  Exposure

  Gulf and Atlantic coasts; inland river valleys

  Vulnerability

  low flood-insurance take-up [40]

  Capacity

  forecasting and evacuation; flood insurance

  Cascade

  CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  annual

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Western heat, fire and grid summer. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of American risk. Losses are rising with frequency; the grid couples heat and cold to water and health; and insurance is retreating where risk is highest. Evidence is strongest for losses and emissions, and weakest for state-level insurance availability and cross-system dependencies.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most Americans risk arrives as a smoke-filled summer, a power cut in a heat wave or a non-renewed home policy. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries the losses insurance no longer covers.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. The world’s largest insured losses, a retreating homeowners market [21] and large flood exposure outside private cover [40] show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  The United States is deeply observed and unevenly protected. The 2027 programme should test the Western heat–fire–grid pathway, map insurance availability by state and peril, and measure reliability margins as data-centre load grows.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a Western summer of heat, drought and wildfire load the grid, water supply, health services and insurance at the same time?

   INI-USA-HFG-01 · Western heat–fire–grid

2. A-02

   Where is homeowners insurance retreating under wildfire, hurricane and flood risk, and where do the uninsured losses land?

   INI-USA-FIN-02 · insurance availability

3. A-03

   How much reliability margin remains when data-centre load grows during heat and cold extremes?

   INI-USA-ENE-03 · load and reliability

4. A-04

   How much food production depends on the depleting High Plains and Central Valley aquifers?

   INI-USA-WAT-04 · aquifer dependence

5. A-05

   What health-system surge capacity exists for record heat in large southern and western cities?

   INI-USA-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness

6. A-06

   How will Colorado River allocation after 2026 couple to cities, farms and hydropower?

   with GS-01 Water

7. A-07

   How exposed are coastal communities to compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

40 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). United States: country profile. In United States 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.