01Overview

The Russian Federation enters 2027 as a large continental economy whose energy, forest and permafrost systems are central to its climate position, and whose official data releases have narrowed. Its second nationally determined contribution sets net emissions in 2035 at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted, against a 1990 net base of 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e [1]. Natural gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 2023 [9], and thermal plants produced 57.5% of electricity in 2025 [8]. 2025 was the second-warmest year on record in Russia, at +1.24 °C [5] [6], and the Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 [29]. The 2025 grain harvest was 141.2 Mt on the Rosstat series that excludes the new regions [22]. A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off Kamchatka on 29 July 2025 [25], and the Orsk dam on the Ural River failed in April 2024 [26]. Monthly births and deaths stopped appearing in Rosstat releases in 2025 [24], and the latest national emissions total is not bound here. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state, names what could not be sourced, maps the couplings through which heat, flood, thaw and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 1 January 2025, Rosstat preliminary

146.0 million

aged 65 or over, 2025

17.8 %

1990 net base year in the NDC

2,427 Mt CO₂e

electricity generation, 2025

1,166 TWh

forest share of land, 2024

50.8 %

prevalence of undernourishment, 2024

≤2.5 %

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Russian Federation matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Heat, drought and wildfire in grain and forest regions

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  record-warm years and seasonal extremes

  Exposure

  grain land, forest, cities downwind of smoke

  Vulnerability

  sink loss and crop loss in the same season

  Capacity

  forest fire monitoring; not reviewed in depth

  Cascade

  CLI → FOO, BIO, HLT, ENE

  Horizon

  annual

• Spring flood and dam failure on regulated rivers

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  snowmelt and rain on frozen ground

  Exposure

  river towns below dams

  Vulnerability

  design levels below event levels, as at Orsk

  Capacity

  federal emergency regime; evacuation

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → INF, HLT

  Horizon

  annual

• Permafrost thaw under northern infrastructure

  Inferred EQL 2

  Driver

  ground warming and Arctic amplification

  Exposure

  northern industry, pipelines, housing

  Vulnerability

  foundation design; monitoring coverage

  Capacity

  operator monitoring systems reported in the NDC

  Cascade

  CLI → INF → ENE, BIO

  Horizon

  5 to 30 years

• Cold extremes and export dependence of the energy system

  Inferred EQL 2

  Driver

  temperature extremes; external demand and logistics

  Exposure

  power, heat supply, fossil exports

  Vulnerability

  gas-heavy supply; northern heat supply

  Capacity

  large installed base of 271 GW [8]

  Cascade

  TRD → ENE → FIN

  Horizon

  1 to 5 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Russia’s risk: climate warming and permafrost thaw are well documented, the energy system concentrates national income, and the data environment limits what can be bound. Evidence is strongest for targets, power mix and climate, and weakest for health, dams and insurance.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a hot summer, a flood in spring or a smoke-filled sky. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how narrower official releases change what citizens, researchers and local authorities can know about these risks.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Insurance depth and public loss-sharing are not bound, and external financing conditions are described in the NDC as restricted [1]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Russia’s climate, forest and energy systems are documented well enough to frame the 2027 agenda, and thinner for health, dams and urban exposure. The 2027 programme should map the heat, drought and smoke pathway, bind the 2026 inventory series and register what is not released.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a summer of heat and drought in a grain and forest region affect harvest, wildfire smoke, power demand and health services together?

   INI-RUS-CLI-01 · heat, drought and smoke

2. A-02

   How resilient are gas, oil and power export and supply chains to cold extremes and to external demand shifts?

   INI-RUS-ENE-02 · energy supply and export resilience

3. A-03

   How exposed are grain output and exports to weather, inputs and logistics at the same time?

   INI-RUS-FOO-03 · grain exposure

4. A-04

   What can be said about heat, ageing and health when national series are not released?

   INI-RUS-HLT-04 · health under data limits

5. A-05

   How do spring floods and dam condition interact on regulated rivers?

   INI-RUS-WAT-05 · flood and dam safety

6. A-06

   Where does permafrost thaw reach infrastructure, and what would it cost to monitor?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

7. A-07

   How large and how uncertain is the forest sink in the national inventory?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

50 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Russian Federation: country profile. In Russian Federation 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.