01Overview

Mexico (México) enters 2027 with 130.9 million residents, a median age of 32 and a multidimensional poverty rate that fell to 29.6% in 2024 [1] [2]. Its systems are tied to those of its northern neighbour. In 2024 the country imported 5,010 PJ of refined energy products and generated 64.2% of its electricity from dry gas [4]. The 2020–2025 cycle under the 1944 Water Treaty closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed [6]. Climate exposure is high and varied. Hurricane Otis struck Acapulco as a category 5 storm in 2023, with US$12–16 billion in damage [7]. Drought covered 76% of the territory at its 2024 peak [14], and in 2025 water stress affected 64% of the continental area [3]. The updated climate contribution sets net emissions of 364–404 MtCO₂e for 2035 [3], while clean sources supplied 26% of electricity in 2025 [5]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Mexico’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, storm, seismic and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

02At a glance

residents, 2025

130.9 million

median age, 2025

32 years

multidimensional poverty, 2024

29.6 %

dwellings with internet, 2025

75.7 %

dwellings with piped water, 2025

97.6 %

federal entities and 2,478 municipalities

32 entities

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Mexico matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Drought, aquifer overdraft and shared-river shortfall

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  multi-year drought; overdraft; shared-river accounts

  Exposure

  64% of the area; about 70% of people [3]

  Vulnerability

  114 overexploited aquifers [13]; Valley of Mexico subsidence [11]

  Capacity

  drought monitor in routine use [15]; storage series not bound

  Cascade

  WAT → FOO, ENE, HLT, TRD

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Gas and fuel supply disruption

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  cross-border supply shock or price spike

  Exposure

  power, transport, industry

  Vulnerability

  dry gas 64.2% of power; 5,010 PJ of products imported [4]

  Capacity

  storage depth not bound; clean share 26% [5]

  Cascade

  TRD → ENE → FOO, WAT, HLT

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Tropical cyclones and river flooding

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  rapidly intensifying Pacific and Atlantic storms

  Exposure

  coastal cities; Gulf-slope valleys

  Vulnerability

  housing and roads on slopes and floodplains

  Capacity

  parametric cover US$420 million [8]

  Cascade

  CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  annual

• Great earthquake and subsidence in the Valley of Mexico

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  intraslab or subduction earthquake; ground sinking

  Exposure

  Mexico City and central states

  Vulnerability

  older buildings; soft lake-bed soils

  Capacity

  seismological service in routine use [9]; alert capability not bound

  Cascade

  SEI → INF, WAT, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  30 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Mexico’s risk: water stress, gas dependence and coastal and seismic hazards act together on a country with a younger population than most peers. Evidence is strongest for energy balances, poverty and treaty accounts, and weakest for heat mortality, food trade volumes and storage series.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For many people risk arrives as a dry tap, a hot week or a storm. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how poverty and limited health access change who can cope, and how shared rivers shape local supply.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. The state holds US$420 million of parametric cover, and the four sectors that emit 77% of greenhouse gases hold 32% of bank credit [4] [8]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  The evidence is solid on structure and thin on stocks and counts. The 2027 programme should map the drought-to-grid pathway, bind storage and heat-mortality series, and measure gas and maize import exposure.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a multi-year drought cut irrigation, hydropower and city supply together, and how does heat load on the grid change the outcome?

   INI-MEX-WAT-01 · drought and grid compound

2. A-02

   How deep are gas and fuel stocks and import routes against a prolonged cross-border supply disruption?

   INI-MEX-ENE-02 · import resilience

3. A-03

   How do maize, feed and livestock trade depend on a single trading partner?

   INI-MEX-FOO-03 · food trade exposure

4. A-04

   How many deaths and hospital cases does a heat season cause, and who counts them?

   INI-MEX-HLT-04 · heat mortality record

5. A-05

   Where do storm and flood losses fall beyond sovereign catastrophe cover?

   INI-MEX-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do aquifer overdraft and subsidence interact in the Valley of Mexico?

   INI-MEX-WAT-06 · workstream

7. A-07

   How does the electricity transition affect water use and cooling demand?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only listed?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

47 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Mexico: country profile. In Mexico 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.