01Overview

Argentina (República Argentina) enters 2027 with 46.2 million residents [1], an ageing index that rose from 40 to 53 people aged 65 or over per 100 children in twelve years [2], and a poverty rate that INDEC put at 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026, up from 28.2% in the second half of 2025 [3]. Its risks come from water and from fuel. The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% and, by the grain exchange’s estimate, cost the farm sector about US$33 billion [12]. Paraná River flows in 2019–2022 were the lowest in 118 years of record [18], and a storm in March 2025 dropped about 290 mm of rain in twelve hours on Bahía Blanca, against a previous record of 167.6 mm [14]. On energy, low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 2025 [8] while crude oil output passed 900,000 barrels a day in 2026 [10]. The national inventory reports 400.9 MtCO₂e including land use for 2022 [4], and the 2025 climate contribution sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035 [6]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Argentina’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, flood, fire and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

02At a glance

population, 2022

46.2 million

people aged 65+ per 100 aged 0–14, 2022

53 per 100

inventory total incl. land use, 2022

400.9 MtCO₂e

low-carbon share of electricity, 2025

42 %

land protected, 2025

10.4 %

people below the poverty line, H1 2026

32.3 %

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The Argentina matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Multi-year drought and low river flows

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  rainfall deficit across the Pampas and the Paraná basin

  Exposure

  grain harvests, river ports, hydropower, public revenue

  Vulnerability

  export dependence; fiscal room under an IMF programme

  Capacity

  not bound at evidence close

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE, FIN, TRD

  Horizon

  1–5 years

• Flash flood and storm in a port or river city

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  extreme rainfall over urban catchments

  Exposure

  coastal and river cities, lifelines, homes

  Vulnerability

  drainage capacity; uninsured households

  Capacity

  national risk-management law exists [30]; drill records not bound

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  annual

• Large fire in wetlands, savanna or forest

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  drought and ignition in dry vegetation

  Exposure

  Corrientes, the Paraná delta, northern forests

  Vulnerability

  dry peat and grass; remote response

  Capacity

  national fire management service reports [16]

  Cascade

  CLI → BIO → HLT, WAT

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Heat and vector-borne disease load on health services

  Inferred EQL 2

  Driver

  hotter seasons and mosquito range

  Exposure

  north-west and north-east provinces, older adults

  Vulnerability

  ageing index 53 per 100 [2]

  Capacity

  epidemiological bulletin in weekly use [20]

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT → ENE peak

  Horizon

  seasonal

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of Argentina’s risk: water extremes dominate the farm economy, the energy system is changing, and public finances limit the buffer. Evidence is strongest for emissions, harvests and storms, and weakest for reservoir storage, heat deaths and lifeline continuity.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a price rise, a flood or a dry season. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how poverty at 32.3% changes who can absorb a bad harvest or a flooded home.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Grain earnings carry public revenue, and the IMF programme frames fiscal room [26]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  Argentina holds long weather and river records, and thinner evidence on storage, reserves and service continuity. The 2027 programme should test the drought–river–revenue chain, map the gas and hydro balance in dry years and bind a national heat-mortality series.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a multi-year drought with low Paraná flows cut harvests, river exports, hydropower and public revenue together?

   INI-ARG-WAT-01 · drought–river–revenue test

2. A-02

   How does the gas and hydro balance hold in a dry, cold year as oil and gas output grow?

   INI-ARG-ENE-02 · power in dry years

3. A-03

   How exposed are grain exports to river logistics and weather together?

   INI-ARG-FOO-03 · export exposure

4. A-04

   How much surge capacity do health services hold for heat and vector-borne disease?

   INI-ARG-HLT-04 · heat and vectors

5. A-05

   Where do flash floods and storms fall on uninsured households and public budgets?

   INI-ARG-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do fire and drought interact in the Paraná delta and the north-east?

   INI-ARG-BIO-01 · fire and wetlands

7. A-07

   How would a changed forest or glacier law alter basin risk?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only listed?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

47 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). Argentina: country profile. In Argentina 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.