01Overview

The United Arab Emirates enters 2027 as a hot, hyper-arid federation of seven emirates with 11.3 million residents, an economy in which non-oil activity is about three quarters of output, and a power system that has changed quickly [1] [4] [7]. Its inventory reported net emissions of 195.2 Mt CO₂e in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019 [3]. The third climate contribution aims for 103.5 Mt CO₂e net in 2035, 47% below a 2019 base of 196.3 Mt, and net zero in 2050 [1]. Gas gave 68% of electricity in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, as nuclear reached 21% and solar 10% [17]. Water is the binding constraint: internal renewable freshwater is about 15 m³ a person, and in Abu Dhabi groundwater was 60% of the water consumed and was drawn at 24 times its recharge [10] [20]. The IMF reports that at least 80% of food is imported [5]. Heat and rain are both hazards: a reading of 51.6 °C was reported in May 2025, and 254 mm of rain fell in under 24 hours in April 2024 [25] [23]. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for these systems, maps the couplings through which heat, water, power and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, 2024

11.3 million

international migrant stock, 2024

74 %

urban population, 2025

86 %

net emissions incl. land use, 2022

195.2 Mt CO₂e

gas share of electricity, 2025

68 %

of food imported, per the IMF staff report

≥80 %

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The United Arab Emirates matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Extreme heat and humidity

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  a reading of 51.6 °C in May 2025; humid heat rising [25] [31]

  Exposure

  outdoor workers; older residents

  Vulnerability

  a large outdoor workforce, per the third NDC [1]

  Capacity

  midday work break and fines [26]

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  groundwater drawn at 24 times recharge in Abu Dhabi [20]

  Exposure

  farms; cities supplied by desalinated water

  Vulnerability

  little renewable water: 14.9 m³ a person [10]

  Capacity

  Water Security Strategy 2036; reuse at 77% [1]

  Cascade

  WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE

  Horizon

  5–30 years

• Flash flood and urban drainage

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  intense rain on low-permeability, hyper-arid ground [24]

  Exposure

  85% of residents in flood-prone, low-lying areas [24]

  Vulnerability

  drainage built for rare rain [24]

  Capacity

  Tasreef drainage programme; cell-broadcast alerts [27] [33]

  Cascade

  CLI → INF → HLT

  Horizon

  annual

• Fuel and power supply under peak demand

  Expert input EQL 2

  Driver

  summer peak; fuel or grid disruption

  Exposure

  power, desalination, cooling

  Vulnerability

  gas 68% of generation [17]

  Capacity

  5.6 GW of nuclear and 7.9 GW of renewables in service [17] [19]

  Cascade

  ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO

  Horizon

  1–5 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of the United Arab Emirates’ risk: heat, scarce water and a gas-heavy but changing power system act together. Evidence is strongest for emissions, generation and fiscal series, and weakest for heat illness, infrastructure condition and capability.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most residents risk arrives as a summer of extreme heat, a sudden flood or a water-supply question. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a fast-growing, largely urban and international population is exposed, and how outdoor workers are protected.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Fuel income carries public finance, and insurance and reserve data are not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  The United Arab Emirates is changing its power mix quickly and is thinner on published data for heat illness, reserves and lifeline continuity. The 2027 programme should map heat–power–water dependencies, test the summer peak, and bind the missing series.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a humid summer heat peak load power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together, and how much margin exists in each?

   INI-ARE-CLI-01 · heat–power–water continuity

2. A-02

   How much of the water supply is non-renewable groundwater and how much is desalinated, emirate by emirate, and how fast is groundwater drawn down?

   INI-ARE-WAT-02 · groundwater and desalination

3. A-03

   How much fuel is burned for power and desalination as nuclear and solar grow, and what does the 2026 generation mix show?

   INI-ARE-ENE-03 · power mix and gas transition

4. A-04

   How concentrated are food imports, by commodity and origin, and how many days of reserves exist?

   INI-ARE-FOO-04 · import exposure

5. A-05

   How is heat illness counted among residents and outdoor workers?

   INI-ARE-HLT-05 · heat and outdoor work

6. A-06

   How do flash floods and urban drainage interact across the emirates?

   INI-ARE-CLI-02 · workstream

7. A-07

   What would a quantified pathway from the 2022 inventory to the 2035 aim need from power, industry and buildings?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

46 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). United Arab Emirates: country profile. In United Arab Emirates 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.