NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-FIS · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Fiscal and public debt risk index

Expert-weighted geometric mean of the six fiscal sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0-10 and floored at 0.1 before aggregation.

Construction Simulator Indicators

Page GRX-IDX-FISEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FIS.debt.fiscal_riskValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76

FIG 1 · Method card

Aggregation

geometric

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Uncertainty

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Structure

7 components

27 leaf indicators

Coverage

71% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.

leaf indicators

components

1,000

Monte Carlo draws

series read it

01Construction

From indicators to the composite

One domain view of sovereign fiscal risk that partly penalises weakness in any pillar; the sub-indices stay visible beside it. It is not a debt-distress rating and never replaces the published LIC-DSF or SRDSF signals.

computation

How Fiscal and public debt risk is computed

Graph37 nodes

Graph

01Indicators

02Sub-indices

03Domain index

04Pillar

05Composite

100%

List

General government gross debt, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
All liabilities of general government that require future payment of interest or principal (debt securities, loans, other accounts payable and similar instruments), at nominal or face value, as a percentage of GDP.
General government net debt, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Gross general government debt minus financial assets held in the form of the same debt instruments, as a percentage of GDP.
Present value of public external debt, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Present value of public and publicly guaranteed external debt, discounted at the LIC-DSF unified discount rate, as a percentage of GDP.
Present value of public external debt, share of exports
Indicator · IND · %
Present value of public and publicly guaranteed external debt as a percentage of exports of goods and services.
Public gross financing needs, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
General government overall deficit plus amortisation of debt falling due in the year (including short-term debt), as a percentage of GDP.
Public external debt service, share of revenue
Indicator · IND · %
Principal and interest paid on public and publicly guaranteed external debt in the year as a percentage of general government revenue excluding grants.
Public external debt service, share of exports
Indicator · IND · %
Principal and interest paid on public and publicly guaranteed external debt in the year as a percentage of exports of goods, services and primary income.
Sovereign bond spread over benchmark
Indicator · IND · %
Yield spread of the sovereign's foreign-currency bonds over US Treasury (or Bund) securities of matched duration, in percentage points, period average.
Foreign-currency share of general government debt
Indicator · IND · %
Share of general government debt denominated in, or indexed to, a foreign currency, at end of period.
Short-term share of general government debt (residual maturity)
Indicator · IND · %
Share of general government debt falling due within twelve months, by residual maturity, at end of period.
Non-resident holdings of general government debt
Indicator · IND · %
Share of general government debt held by non-resident creditors (official and private), at end of period.
Average time to maturity of general government debt
Indicator · IND · a
Weighted average residual maturity of general government debt principal, in years, at end of period.
Concessional share of public external debt
Indicator · IND · %
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt contracted on concessional terms (grant element of at least 35 %), at end of period.
Rigid expenditure, share of revenue
Indicator · IND · %
Compensation of employees, interest and social benefits (GFSM 2014 items 21, 24 and 27) together as a percentage of general government revenue.
Interest payments, share of revenue
Indicator · IND · %
General government interest payments (GFSM 2014 item 24) as a percentage of general government revenue.
General government revenue, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Total general government revenue as a percentage of GDP.
Natural-resource revenue, share of general government revenue
Indicator · IND · %
Revenue from oil, gas and mining (royalties, resource taxes, profit transfers from state resource companies) as a percentage of total general government revenue.
General government overall balance, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
General government revenue minus total expenditure (net lending or net borrowing, GFSM 2014) in the year, as a percentage of GDP.
General government primary balance, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Overall general government balance excluding net interest payments, as a percentage of GDP.
Interest-rate-growth differential (r - g)
Indicator · IND · %
Effective real interest rate on general government debt (interest paid over the previous year's debt stock, deflated by the GDP deflator) minus real GDP growth, three-year average, in percentage points.
Debt of non-financial public corporations, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Gross debt of non-financial public corporations (state-owned enterprises outside general government) as a percentage of GDP, where reported.
Outstanding government guarantees, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Stock of explicit one-off loan guarantees issued by general government (including public-private partnership guarantees) outstanding at end of period, as a percentage of GDP.
Expected annual fiscal cost of disasters, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Modelled average annual cost to the budget of disaster relief, reconstruction of public assets and revenue loss, net of pre-arranged risk financing, as a percentage of GDP.
Current account balance, share of GDP
Indicator · IND · %
Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
Reserves in months of imports
Indicator · IND · mo
Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
Short-term external debt, share of reserves
Indicator · IND · %
External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
External debt stocks, share of GNI
Indicator · IND · %
Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
Public debt burden sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 22.2%
Composite of gross and net general government debt and the present value of public external debt to GDP and to exports.
Financing pressure sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 22.2%
Composite of gross financing needs, public external debt service to revenue and to exports, and the sovereign bond spread.
Debt composition risk sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%
Composite of the foreign-currency share, short-term share, non-resident holdings, average maturity and concessional share of public debt.
Budget rigidity and revenue weakness sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 11.1%
Composite of rigid expenditure to revenue, interest to revenue, revenue to GDP and resource-revenue dependence.
Fiscal position sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 11.1%
Composite of the overall balance, the primary balance and the interest-rate-growth differential.
Contingent liability sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 11.1%
Composite of state-owned-enterprise debt, outstanding guarantees and the expected annual fiscal cost of disasters.
External vulnerability sub-index
Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 5.6%
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
Fiscal and public debt risk index
Domain index · IDX · geometric
Expert-weighted geometric mean of the six fiscal sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0-10 and floored at 0.1 before aggregation.
Macro-financial and structural fragility
Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
NXS-GRX Composite Risk
Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices

Not runIn progressDone

FIG 2. 27 indicators, 7 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order.

02Simulator

Run this index's own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate fiscal and public debt risk on your numbers

Components (0 to 10)

Public debt burden sub-index · w 23.0

Financing pressure sub-index · w 25.0

Debt composition risk sub-index · w 1.57.0

Budget rigidity and revenue weakness sub-index · w 14.0

Fiscal position sub-index · w 16.0

Contingent liability sub-index · w 13.0

External vulnerability sub-index · w 0.55.0

Aggregation

Weight uncertainty ±%25

Mix aggregation alternatives (0 or 1)1

–

runs in your browser

Contribution of each component (leave one out)

Simulator: the index's published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) values.

03Method

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment: NONE
Outlier rule: |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation: IDENTITY
Imputation: NONE
Coverage minimum: 71% of components
Modelled share cap: 20% of weight
Weighting: expert
Aggregation: geometric
Scale: 0 to 10
Uncertainty: 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis: OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; INFORM geometric aggregation; IMF SRDSF and IMF/WB LIC-DSF (pillar structure only)

Very low0.0 to < 2.0

Low2.0 to < 3.5

Medium3.5 to < 5.0

High5.0 to < 6.5

Very high6.5 to 10.0

04Components

7 components, 27 indicators

Public debt burden sub-index w 2

Composite of gross and net general government debt and the present value of public external debt to GDP and to exports.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
General government gross debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.gross_debt.gdp	%	Class A	imf-weo, imf-gdd, wb-qpsd	37.5%
General government net debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.net_debt.gdp	%	Class B	imf-weo	12.5%
Present value of public external debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.gdp	%	Class C	imf-wb-lic-dsf, wb-ids	25.0%
Present value of public external debt, share of exportsIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.exports	%	Class C	imf-wb-lic-dsf, wb-ids	25.0%

Financing pressure sub-index w 2

Composite of gross financing needs, public external debt service to revenue and to exports, and the sovereign bond spread.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Public gross financing needs, share of GDPIND.FIS.financing.gross_financing_needs.gdp	%	Class C	imf-dsa, imf-fiscal-monitor, national-dmo	37.5%
Public external debt service, share of revenueIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.revenue	%	Class B	imf-wb-lic-dsf, wb-ids, imf-gfs	25.0%
Public external debt service, share of exportsIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.exports	%	Class A	wb-ids, wb-wdi	25.0%
Sovereign bond spread over benchmarkIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_spread	%	Class B	jpm-embi:licensed, national-bond-yields, imf-dsa	12.5%

Debt composition risk sub-index w 1.5

Composite of the foreign-currency share, short-term share, non-resident holdings, average maturity and concessional share of public debt.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Foreign-currency share of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.fx_share	%	Class B	wb-qpsd, national-dmo, imf-dsa	20.0%
Short-term share of general government debt (residual maturity)IND.FIS.debt.short_term_share	%	Class B	wb-qpsd, national-dmo, imf-dsa	20.0%
Non-resident holdings of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.nonresident_share	%	Class C	imf-sovereign-investor-base, wb-qpsd, national-dmo	20.0%
Average time to maturity of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.average_maturity	a	Class B	national-dmo, oecd-sovereign-borrowing, imf-dsa	20.0%
Concessional share of public external debtIND.FIS.debt.concessional_share	%	Class A	wb-ids	20.0%

Budget rigidity and revenue weakness sub-index w 1

Composite of rigid expenditure to revenue, interest to revenue, revenue to GDP and resource-revenue dependence.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Rigid expenditure, share of revenueIND.FIS.expenditure.rigid_share.revenue	%	Class B	derived:imf-gfs	28.6%
Interest payments, share of revenueIND.FIS.expenditure.interest.revenue	%	Class A	imf-gfs, imf-weo, wb-wdi	28.6%
General government revenue, share of GDPIND.FIS.revenue.total.gdp	%	Class A	imf-weo, imf-gfs, unu-wider-grd	28.6%
Natural-resource revenue, share of general government revenueIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share	%	Class B	unu-wider-grd, imf-gfs, eiti	14.3%

Fiscal position sub-index w 1

Composite of the overall balance, the primary balance and the interest-rate-growth differential.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
General government overall balance, share of GDPIND.FIS.balance.overall_balance.gdp	%	Class A	imf-weo, imf-gfs, wb-wdi	33.3%
General government primary balance, share of GDPIND.FIS.balance.primary_balance.gdp	%	Class A	imf-weo, imf-gfs	33.3%
Interest-rate-growth differential (r - g)IND.FIS.balance.interest_growth_differential	%	Class C	derived:imf-weo, derived:nis:IND.MAC.output.real_gdp_growth	33.3%

Contingent liability sub-index w 1

Composite of state-owned-enterprise debt, outstanding guarantees and the expected annual fiscal cost of disasters.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Debt of non-financial public corporations, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.soe_debt.gdp	%	Class C	wb-qpsd, imf-public-sector-balance-sheet, national-soe-reports	40.0%
Outstanding government guarantees, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.guarantees.gdp	%	Class C	national-fiscal-risk-statements, wb-ppi, imf-dsa	40.0%
Expected annual fiscal cost of disasters, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp	%	Class D	undrr-gar-aal, wb-country-climate-development-reports, imf-dsa-climate-annex	20.0%

External vulnerability sub-index w 0.5

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

Indicator	Unit	Evidence	Sources	Share
Current account balance, share of GDPIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp	%	Class A	wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop	25.0%
Reserves in months of importsIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover	mo	Class A	wb-wdi, imf-irfcl	25.0%
Short-term external debt, share of reservesIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves	%	Class A	wb-ids, wb-wdi	25.0%
External debt stocks, share of GNIIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni	%	Class A	wb-ids	25.0%

05Domain

Fiscal and public debt

Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities.

Sub-domain	Indicators
Fiscal balance	4
Revenue	5
Expenditure	3
Debt stock and composition	9
Gross financing needs	5
Contingent liabilities	3
Debt-carrying capacity	8

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IMF GFS 2014; IMF/WB LIC-DSF; IMF SRDSF; Sovereign rating fiscal pillar.

06Indicators

All 37 fiscal and public debt indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain

Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.

Filter by name, code, domain, sub-domain or crosswalk

Indicator	Domain	Sub-domain	Component	Unit	Levels	Crosswalks
General government overall balance, share of GDPIND.FIS.balance.overall_balance.gdp	FIS	Fiscal balance	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	IMF_WEO GGXCNL_NGDP WB_WDI GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS
General government primary balance, share of GDPIND.FIS.balance.primary_balance.gdp	FIS	Fiscal balance	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	IMF_WEO GGXONLB_NGDP
General government structural balance, share of potential GDPIND.FIS.balance.structural_balance.potgdp	FIS	Fiscal balance	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	IMF_WEO GGSB_NPGDP
Interest-rate-growth differential (r - g)IND.FIS.balance.interest_growth_differential	FIS	Fiscal balance	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
General government revenue, current US dollarsIND.FIS.revenue.total.usd	FIS	Revenue	context	[USD]	COUNTRY	IMF_GFS 1
General government revenue, share of GDPIND.FIS.revenue.total.gdp	FIS	Revenue	coping capacity	%	COUNTRY	IMF_WEO GGR_NGDP SDG 17.1.1 WB_WDI GC.REV.XGRT.GD.ZS
Tax revenue, share of GDPIND.FIS.revenue.tax.gdp	FIS	Revenue	coping capacity	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS IMF_GFS 11
Tax effort (actual over estimated tax capacity)IND.FIS.revenue.tax_effort	FIS	Revenue	adaptive capacity	1	COUNTRY
Natural-resource revenue, share of general government revenueIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share	FIS	Revenue	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
General government expenditure, share of GDPIND.FIS.expenditure.total.gdp	FIS	Expenditure	context	%	COUNTRY	IMF_WEO GGX_NGDP WB_WDI GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS
Rigid expenditure, share of revenueIND.FIS.expenditure.rigid_share.revenue	FIS	Expenditure	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Interest payments, share of revenueIND.FIS.expenditure.interest.revenue	FIS	Expenditure	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS
General government gross debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.gross_debt.gdp	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	IMF_WEO GGXWDG_NGDP WB_WDI GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS
General government net debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.net_debt.gdp	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	IMF_WEO GGXWDN_NGDP
Foreign-currency share of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.fx_share	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Short-term share of general government debt (residual maturity)IND.FIS.debt.short_term_share	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Average time to maturity of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.average_maturity	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	a	COUNTRY
Non-resident holdings of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.nonresident_share	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Concessional share of public external debtIND.FIS.debt.concessional_share	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI DT.DOD.ALLC.ZS
Present value of public external debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.gdp	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.GN.ZS
Present value of public external debt, share of exportsIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.exports	FIS	Debt stock and composition	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.EX.ZS
Public gross financing needs, share of GDPIND.FIS.financing.gross_financing_needs.gdp	FIS	Gross financing needs	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Public external debt service, share of revenueIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.revenue	FIS	Gross financing needs	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Public external debt service, share of exportsIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.exports	FIS	Gross financing needs	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY	WB_WDI DT.TDS.DPPG.XP.ZS SDG 17.4.1
Sovereign bond spread over benchmarkIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_spread	FIS	Gross financing needs	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Five-year sovereign credit default swap spreadIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_cds_5y	FIS	Gross financing needs	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Debt of non-financial public corporations, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.soe_debt.gdp	FIS	Contingent liabilities	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Outstanding government guarantees, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.guarantees.gdp	FIS	Contingent liabilities	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
Expected annual fiscal cost of disasters, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp	FIS	Contingent liabilities	vulnerability	%	COUNTRY
LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator	FIS	Debt-carrying capacity	coping capacity	{score}	COUNTRY
LIC-DSF threshold: PV of external debt to GDP (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_gdp	FIS	Debt-carrying capacity	context	%	COUNTRY
LIC-DSF threshold: PV of external debt to exports (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_exports	FIS	Debt-carrying capacity	context	%	COUNTRY
LIC-DSF threshold: external debt service to exports (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_exports	FIS	Debt-carrying capacity	context	%	COUNTRY
LIC-DSF threshold: external debt service to revenue (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_revenue	FIS	Debt-carrying capacity	context	%	COUNTRY
LIC-DSF benchmark: PV of total public debt to GDP (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_public_gdp	FIS	Debt-carrying capacity	context	%	COUNTRY
LIC-DSF risk of debt distress, as published (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_risk_published	FIS	Debt-carrying capacity	context	{class}	COUNTRY
SRDSF overall risk of sovereign stress, as published (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.srdsf_risk_published	FIS	Debt-carrying capacity	context	{class}	COUNTRY

07Quote

Fiscal and public debt risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · FIS · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale

Fiscal and public debt risk index, world

—

Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.

Previous edition: —
Range since 2016: —
Coupled composite: —
Coupling score S: —
Pulse, latest week: —
Outlook, 12 months: —
Method: Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws: 1,000

Fiscal and public debt risk index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.

No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.

08Values

Country values

FIG 5 · Fiscal and public debt risk index: countries (values when released)Find a country

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Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released

Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index's classes with each country's interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.

Tiles: /api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/fis/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Observation key: nis:IDX.FIS.debt.fiscal_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

09Series

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk.SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.SR-05Fiscal resilienceFiscal space, debt sustainability signals, contingent liabilities from disasters, and pre-arranged finance.TH-03Disaster Risk Finance (DRF)Loss sensitivity, protection gaps, contingent liabilities and the readiness questions for pre-arranged finance, insurance and risk transfer.

10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code system	Leaf indicators mapped
`WB_WDI`	12
`IMF_WEO`	6
`SDG`	2

11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

Across the Nexus

GRA Sovereign Capital · GRA Public Finance and Sovereign Debt · GRA Disaster Risk Finance · GRF Capital

12Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Fiscal and public debt risk index (GRX-IDX-FIS), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/fiscal-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000122.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.

Cart review

Fiscal and public debt risk index

geometric

1,000 draws

7 components

71% minimum

From indicators to the composite

Run this index's own aggregation

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

7 components, 27 indicators

Public debt burden sub-index w 2

Financing pressure sub-index w 2

Debt composition risk sub-index w 1.5

Budget rigidity and revenue weakness sub-index w 1

Fiscal position sub-index w 1

Contingent liability sub-index w 1

External vulnerability sub-index w 0.5

Fiscal and public debt

All 37 fiscal and public debt indicators

Fiscal and public debt risk index, world

Country values

Series that read this index

Crosswalks and validity checks

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Across the Nexus

Cite and reuse

See this index in every country profile

Status

What NXS-GRX is not

Institutions and sources

GLOBAL RISKS INDEX (GRIx)