Horizon scan and brief
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review.
- Scan sourcesweekly
- Cluster and deduplicate1 day
- Likelihood and impact with uncertainty3 days
- Systemic links2 days
- Peer review5 days
- Briefing issued1 day
Horizon scan and brief
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review.
End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.
- Scan sources matrix · sourcesScan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weeklyAdmitted sources and literature · Expert elicitationHorizon scanningLicence register
- Cluster and deduplicateScan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 dayThemes and weak signalsHorizon scanning
- Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAssess · Analysts · 3 daysStructured elicitation · Ranges, not pointsHorizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
- Systemic linksAssess · Analysts · 2 daysCoupling to existing domainsDependency network
- Peer review approvalBrief · Reviewers · 5 daysChallenge session · DispositionPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
| Artifact | Job | Who | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate list | Scan sources | NXS-GRX Intelligence | Scan |
| Theme map | Cluster and deduplicate | NXS-GRX Intelligence | Scan |
| Horizon matrix | Likelihood and impact with uncertainty | Analysts | Assess |
| Link map | Systemic links | Analysts | Assess |
| Review record | Peer review | Reviewers | Brief |
| Horizon briefing | Briefing issued | Intelligence team | Brief |
Solutions that use this journey
6 components
Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artifacts.
Part of NXS-GRX Intelligence: Pulse nowcasts, calibrated outlooks, horizon scanning, watchlists and analyst-reviewed briefings, with every signal kept apart from an official warning.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.