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Foundry
The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX Models · Model · on: trigger study started

Design a parametric trigger

Study an index trigger for pre-arranged finance: event history, basis risk and calibration, with review before any use. Information for design, not advice.

Follow the runAll journeys
Page GRX-JRN-PARAMETRICEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Jobs 6Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
on: trigger study started · Design a parametric trigger6 jobs · 1 gate · 5 checks
  1. Peril, area and indexself-serve
  2. Historical event set1 day
  3. Basis-risk test1 day
  4. Calibrate attachment and exitself-serve
  5. Independent review10 days
  6. Monitoring feedongoing
01Model

Design a parametric trigger

Study an index trigger for pre-arranged finance: event history, basis risk and calibration, with review before any use. Information for design, not advice.

on: trigger study started
Design a parametric trigger
In progressTriggered by Risk-transfer team6 jobs1 approval gate5 checks
Graph
01Frame
02Study
03Study
04Calibrate
05Review
06Review
100%
Timeline
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 d12 dTarget
Peril, area and indexYouinstant
Historical event setModel Lab1 d
Basis-risk testVerification engine1 d
Calibrate attachment and exitYouinstant
Independent reviewReviewers10 d
Monitoring feedNXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Intelligenceongoing

End to end on the longest path: about 13.4 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Peril, area and index
    Frame · You · self-serve
    Peril keyed to Hazard Standard · Area of interest · Index candidates
    Model Labhazard standard
  2. Historical event set
    Study · Model Lab · 1 day
    Event catalogue assembled · Losses and responses matched
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  3. Basis-risk test
    Study · Verification engine · 1 day
    False positives and misses · Payout correlation with loss
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Calibrate attachment and exit
    Calibrate · You · self-serve
    Attachment, exit and payout curve · Return periods
    Model Lab
  5. Independent review approval
    Review · Reviewers · 10 days
    Method and data reviewed · Limits recorded
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  6. Monitoring feed
    Review · NXS-GRX Intelligence · ongoing
    Index values streamed · Threshold crossings sent for review
    Pulse nowcastWebhooks and streaming
Artifacts
ArtifactJobWhoStage
Study briefPeril, area and indexYouFrame
Event setHistorical event setModel LabStudy
Basis-risk reportBasis-risk testVerification engineStudy
Trigger cardCalibrate attachment and exitYouCalibrate
Review recordIndependent reviewReviewersReview
Monitoring subscriptionMonitoring feedNXS-GRX IntelligenceReview
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateTest jobYou are here
Study an index trigger for pre-arranged finance: event history, basis risk and calibration, with review before any use. Information for design, not advice. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is an illustration, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
02Who it is for

Solutions that use this journey

Public sector

Multilaterals and development banks

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

See the solutionEnterprise

Insurers and reinsurers

Read hazard, exposure and protection gaps, run tails and study parametric index design.

See the solution
03Technology

8 components

Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artifacts.

Model Labhazard standardProvenance (W3C PROV)Verification engineMonte Carlo enginePostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcastWebhooks and streaming

Part of NXS-GRX Models: Scenario pathways, stress tests, tail and exceedance analytics, coupling contagion and forecasting on the open method library, with tests and model cards.

Start this journey

Talk to the Secretariat to start this journey with your team.

Contact

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.