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The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · Methods · 25 capabilities

Health and epidemiology

Methods for health, one-health on the julia and python and r compute planes.

CapabilitiesAll methods
Page GRX-MTH-HEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
25
capabilities
9
kernel-bound
6
method families
2
standards
01Capabilities

25 capabilities

9 of 25 have a bound kernel or engine. States are shown as the registry records them; a request fails closed wherever an adapter, specialist model or governed data is still missing.

MethodCapability IDStateRuns on
SIR Epidemiologyrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.sir.epidemiology.v1Reference implementationpython · epidemiology.sir_step
SEIR Epidemiologyrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.seir.epidemiology.v1Reference implementationpython · epidemiology.seir_rk4
Stochastic Epidemicrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.stochastic.epidemic.v1Specialist model required—
Rt Estimationrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.rt.estimation.v1Specialist model requiredpython · epidemiology.renewal_rt
Health Nowcastingrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.health.nowcasting.v1Specialist model required—
Outbreak Detectionrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.outbreak.detection.v1Specialist model requiredpython · epidemiology.ears_aberration
Syndromic Surveillancerisk.capability.health-epidemiology.syndromic.surveillance.v1Specialist model requiredpython · epidemiology.ears_aberration
Spatial Epidemicrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.spatial.epidemic.v1Specialist model required—
Hospital Capacityrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.hospital.capacity.v1Specialist model requiredpython · health.hospital_capacity
ICU Demandrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.icu.demand.v1Specialist model requiredpython · health.bed_occupancy_convolution
Health Workforcerisk.capability.health-epidemiology.health.workforce.v1Specialist model required—
Pharmaceutical Supplyrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.pharmaceutical.supply.v1Specialist model required—
Health Accessrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.health.access.v1Specialist model required—
Excess Mortalityrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.excess.mortality.v1Specialist model required—
Heat Healthrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.heat.health.v1Specialist model required—
Air Pollution Burdenrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.air.pollution.burden.v1Specialist model required—
Waterborne Diseaserisk.capability.health-epidemiology.waterborne.disease.v1Specialist model required—
Vector Borne Diseaserisk.capability.health-epidemiology.vector.borne.disease.v1Specialist model required—
Foodborne Diseaserisk.capability.health-epidemiology.foodborne.disease.v1Specialist model required—
Health System Resiliencerisk.capability.health-epidemiology.health.system.resilience.v1Specialist model required—
Health Supply Chainrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.health.supply.chain.v1Specialist model required—
Pandemic Scenariorisk.capability.health-epidemiology.pandemic.scenario.v1Specialist model requiredpython · epidemiology.sir_final_size
Zoonotic Spillover Supportrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.zoonotic.spillover.support.v1Specialist model required—
One Health Nexusrisk.capability.health-epidemiology.one.health.nexus.v1Specialist model required—
Epidemic Growth Raterisk.capability.health-epidemiology.epidemic.growth.rate.v1Specialist model requiredpython · epidemiology.growth_rate_reproduction_number
02Scope

Methods, data and supports

Method families
scientific simulation, bayesian inference, state space, time series, spatial statistics, change detection
Domains
health, one-health
Compute planes
julia, python, r
Source classes
public-health, surveillance, hospital, environment, supply-chain
Spatial supports
facility, admin, grid
Temporal supports
daily, weekly, forecast, scenario
Reference implementation2
Specialist model required23
03Standards

Standards that govern this fabric

NRS-M16NRS-N4

Propose a method

New methods are registered with a stable ID and a hand-derived golden test.

Contribute

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.