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The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · Methods · 28 capabilities

Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risk

Methods for sovereign, macro, development on the julia and python and r compute planes.

CapabilitiesAll methods
Page GRX-MTH-SMDEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
28
capabilities
5
kernel-bound
5
method families
4
standards
01Capabilities

28 capabilities

5 of 28 have a bound kernel or engine. States are shown as the registry records them; a request fails closed wherever an adapter, specialist model or governed data is still missing.

MethodCapability IDStateRuns on
Sovereign Default Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.default.risk.v1Data required—
Debt Sustainabilityrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.sustainability.v1Data requiredpython · sovereign.debt_sustainability
Fiscal Stressrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.stress.v1Data requiredpython · sovereign.fiscal_stress
Debt Service Burdenrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.service.burden.v1Data required—
FX Reserve Adequacyrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fx.reserve.adequacy.v1Data required—
External Vulnerabilityrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.external.vulnerability.v1Data required—
Balance of Paymentsrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.balance.of.payments.v1Data required—
Inflation Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inflation.risk.v1Data required—
Growth at Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.growth.at.risk.v1Data requiredr · macro.quantile_regression_fit
Unemployment Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.unemployment.risk.v1Data required—
Poverty Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.poverty.risk.v1Data required—
Inequality Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inequality.risk.v1Data required—
Social Protection Adequacyrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.social.protection.adequacy.v1Data required—
Fiscal Spacerisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.space.v1Data required—
Public Investment Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.public.investment.risk.v1Data required—
Project Delivery Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.project.delivery.risk.v1Data required—
Debt Climate Interactionrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.climate.interaction.v1Data required—
Sovereign Catastrophe Riskrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.catastrophe.risk.v1Data required—
Contingent Liabilitiesrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.contingent.liabilities.v1Data required—
Political Economy Scenariorisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.political.economy.scenario.v1Data required—
Institutional Capacityrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.institutional.capacity.v1Data required—
Governance Shockrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.governance.shock.v1Data required—
Development Trajectoryrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.trajectory.v1Data required—
SDG Trajectoryrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sdg.trajectory.v1Data required—
Aid Dependencerisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.aid.dependence.v1Data required—
Development Finance Additionalityrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.finance.additionality.v1Data required—
Programme Effectivenessrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.programme.effectiveness.v1Data requiredpython · macro.local_projection
Debt Fan Chartrisk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.fan.chart.v1Data requiredpython · sovereign.debt_fan_chart
02Scope

Methods, data and supports

Method families
time series, bayesian inference, causal inference, scenario ensemble, financial risk
Domains
sovereign, macro, development
Compute planes
julia, python, r
Source classes
official-statistics, fiscal, debt, macro, development
Spatial supports
country, admin, region
Temporal supports
monthly, quarterly, annual, scenario
Data required28
03Standards

Standards that govern this fabric

NRS-D1NRS-F5NRS-F6NRS-M11

Propose a method

New methods are registered with a stable ID and a hand-derived golden test.

Contribute

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.