Foundry
The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · Methods · 30 capabilities

Markets, trade and supply chains

Methods for trade, supply-chain, markets on the julia and python compute planes.

CapabilitiesAll methods
Page GRX-MTH-MTSCEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
30
capabilities
7
kernel-bound
5
method families
3
standards
01Capabilities

30 capabilities

7 of 30 have a bound kernel or engine. States are shown as the registry records them; a request fails closed wherever an adapter, specialist model or governed data is still missing.

MethodCapability IDStateRuns on
Commodity Price Riskrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.commodity.price.risk.v1Data required—
Price Volatilityrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.price.volatility.v1Data required—
Market Regimerisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.market.regime.v1Data required—
Demand Forecastingrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.demand.forecasting.v1Data required—
Supply Forecastingrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.supply.forecasting.v1Data required—
Trade Dependencyrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.trade.dependency.v1Reference implementationpython · trade.dependency
Bilateral Concentrationrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.bilateral.concentration.v1Reference implementationpython · trade.concentration
Import Reliancerisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.import.reliance.v1Reference implementation—
Export Concentrationrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.export.concentration.v1Reference implementation—
Tariff Exposurerisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.tariff.exposure.v1Data required—
Sanctions Exposurerisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.sanctions.exposure.v1Data required—
Shipping Disruptionrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.shipping.disruption.v1Data required—
Port Congestionrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.port.congestion.v1Data required—
Aviation Disruptionrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.aviation.disruption.v1Data required—
Inventory Shortagerisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.inventory.shortage.v1Data required—
Bullwhiprisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.bullwhip.v1Data required—
Supplier Failurerisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.supplier.failure.v1Data required—
Multi Tier Supplier Graphrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.multi.tier.supplier.graph.v1Data required—
Geographic Concentrationrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.geographic.concentration.v1Data required—
Single Source Dependencyrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.single.source.dependency.v1Data required—
Supplier Concentrationrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.supplier.concentration.v1Data requiredpython · supply.hhi
Lead Time Riskrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.lead.time.risk.v1Data required—
Logistics Capacityrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.logistics.capacity.v1Data required—
Geopolitical Trade Shockrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.geopolitical.trade.shock.v1Data required—
Supply Demand Imbalancerisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.supply.demand.imbalance.v1Data requiredpython · market.supply_demand_imbalance
Food Market Stressrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.food.market.stress.v1Data requiredpython · food.price_anomaly_ifpa
Energy Market Stressrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.energy.market.stress.v1Data required—
Critical Mineral Riskrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.critical.mineral.risk.v1Data required—
Input Output Propagationrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.input.output.propagation.v1Data requiredpython · supply.leontief
Inoperability Input Outputrisk.capability.market-trade-supply-chain.inoperability.input.output.v1Data requiredpython · supply.inoperability
02Scope

Methods, data and supports

Method families
time series, network science, optimization, system dynamics, scenario ensemble
Domains
trade, supply-chain, markets
Compute planes
julia, python
Source classes
market-price, trade-flow, shipping, inventory, supplier, sanctions
Spatial supports
route, port, network, country
Temporal supports
daily, monthly, scenario
Reference implementation4
Data required26
03Standards

Standards that govern this fabric

NRS-M10NRS-P10NRS-X4

Propose a method

New methods are registered with a stable ID and a hand-derived golden test.

Contribute

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.