Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risk
Methods for sovereign, macro, development on the Julia and Python and r compute planes.
28 capabilities
5 of 28 have a bound kernel or engine. States are shown as the registry records them; a request fails closed wherever an adapter, specialist model or governed data is still missing.
| Método | Capability ID | Estado | Se ejecuta en |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign Default Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.default.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Debt Sustainability | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.sustainability.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.debt_sustainability |
| Fiscal Stress | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.stress.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.fiscal_stress |
| Debt Service Burden | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.service.burden.v1 |
Data required | – |
| FX Reserve Adequacy | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fx.reserve.adequacy.v1 |
Data required | – |
| External Vulnerability | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.external.vulnerability.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Balance of Payments | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.balance.of.payments.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Inflation Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inflation.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Growth at Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.growth.at.risk.v1 |
Data required | r · macro.quantile_regression_fit |
| Unemployment Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.unemployment.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Poverty Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.poverty.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Inequality Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inequality.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Social Protection Adequacy | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.social.protection.adequacy.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Fiscal Space | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.space.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Public Investment Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.public.investment.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Project Delivery Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.project.delivery.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Debt Climate Interaction | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.climate.interaction.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Sovereign Catastrophe Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.catastrophe.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Contingent Liabilities | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.contingent.liabilities.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Political Economy Scenario | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.political.economy.scenario.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Institutional Capacity | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.institutional.capacity.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Governance Shock | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.governance.shock.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Development Trajectory | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.trajectory.v1 |
Data required | – |
| SDG Trajectory | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sdg.trajectory.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Aid Dependence | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.aid.dependence.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Development Finance Additionality | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.finance.additionality.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Programme Effectiveness | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.programme.effectiveness.v1 |
Data required | Python · macro.local_projection |
| Debt Fan Chart | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.fan.chart.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.debt_fan_chart |
Methods, data and supports
- Method families
- time series, Bayesian inference, causal inference, scenario ensemble, financial risk
- Ámbitos
- sovereign, macro, development
- Compute planes
- Julia, Python, r
- Source classes
- official-statistics, fiscal, debt, macro, development
- Spatial supports
- country, admin, region
- Temporal supports
- monthly, quarterly, annual, scenario
Propose a method
New methods are registered with a stable ID and a hand-derived golden test.
Estado
La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.
Lo que NXS-GRX no es
NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.
Instituciones y fuentes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.