Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risk
Methods for sovereign, macro, development on the Julia and Python and r compute planes.
28 capabilities
5 of 28 have a bound kernel or engine. States are shown as the registry records them; a request fails closed wherever an adapter, specialist model or governed data is still missing.
| المنهجية | Capability ID | الحالة | يعمل على |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign Default Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.default.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| القدرة على تحمّل الدين | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.sustainability.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.debt_sustainability |
| Fiscal Stress | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.stress.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.fiscal_stress |
| Debt Service Burden | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.service.burden.v1 |
Data required | – |
| FX Reserve Adequacy | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fx.reserve.adequacy.v1 |
Data required | – |
| External Vulnerability | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.external.vulnerability.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Balance of Payments | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.balance.of.payments.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Inflation Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inflation.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Growth at Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.growth.at.risk.v1 |
Data required | r · macro.quantile_regression_fit |
| Unemployment Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.unemployment.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Poverty Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.poverty.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Inequality Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inequality.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Social Protection Adequacy | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.social.protection.adequacy.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Fiscal Space | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.space.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Public Investment Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.public.investment.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Project Delivery Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.project.delivery.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Debt Climate Interaction | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.climate.interaction.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Sovereign Catastrophe Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.catastrophe.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Contingent Liabilities | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.contingent.liabilities.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Political Economy Scenario | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.political.economy.scenario.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Institutional Capacity | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.institutional.capacity.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Governance Shock | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.governance.shock.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Development Trajectory | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.trajectory.v1 |
Data required | – |
| SDG Trajectory | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sdg.trajectory.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Aid Dependence | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.aid.dependence.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Development Finance Additionality | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.finance.additionality.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Programme Effectiveness | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.programme.effectiveness.v1 |
Data required | Python · macro.local_projection |
| Debt Fan Chart | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.fan.chart.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.debt_fan_chart |
Methods, data and supports
- Method families
- time series, Bayesian inference, causal inference, scenario ensemble, financial risk
- المجالات
- sovereign, macro, development
- Compute planes
- Julia, Python, r
- Source classes
- official-statistics, fiscal, debt, macro, development
- Spatial supports
- country, admin, region
- Temporal supports
- monthly, quarterly, annual, scenario
الحالة
منهجية The Global Risks Index وبنيته وتعاريفه مسودة عمل تحضيرية (2026)، تُعمَّم للمراجعة والتعليق لا للتطبيق. ولا تظهر أي قيمة إلى أن يصدر إصدار من مقطع أدلة خاضع للحوكمة؛ وعندئذ تحمل القيم فترات وفئات ومصادر ومسار تصويبها. وتُطبِّق أدوات المحاكاة المنهجيات المنشورة على أرقام تختارها أنت، ولا تعرض أبدًا أي قيمة من NXS-GRX.
ما ليس عليه NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX معلومات بحثية وتحليلية للمخاطر. وهو ليس تصنيفًا ائتمانيًا ولا تصنيفًا بيئيًا واجتماعيًا وحوكميًا ولا يستخدم أي مقياس تصنيف، وليس مؤشرًا مرجعيًا للأدوات المالية، ولا إحصاءً رسميًا، ولا إنذارًا طارئًا أو تصنيفًا رسميًا، ولا مشورة. ولا يجوز استخدامه لتقييم الأشخاص الطبيعيين. فئات المخاطر نطاقات على مقياس منشور، وليست أبدًا ترتيبًا للبلدان أو الأشخاص.
المؤسسات والمصادر
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
تحمل كل قيمة إسناد مصادرها، التي تحتفظ بتراخيصها الخاصة. ولا يُستشهد بالأسماء الخارجية إلا لأغراض قابلية التشغيل البيني. ويُعتزم إصدار النصوص التي تؤلفها Nexus بموجب ترخيص CC BY 4.0 عند نشرها.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.