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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Methods · 28 capabilities

Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risk

Methods for sovereign, macro, development on the Julia and Python and r compute planes.

Page GRX-MTH-SMDEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
28
capabilities
5
kernel-bound
5
method families
4
viwango

01Capabilities

28 capabilities

5 of 28 have a bound kernel or engine. States are shown as the registry records them; a request fails closed wherever an adapter, specialist model or governed data is still missing.

Method Capability ID State Runs on
Sovereign Default Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.default.risk.v1 Data required –
Debt Sustainability risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.sustainability.v1 Data required Python · sovereign.debt_sustainability
Fiscal Stress risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.stress.v1 Data required Python · sovereign.fiscal_stress
Debt Service Burden risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.service.burden.v1 Data required –
FX Reserve Adequacy risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fx.reserve.adequacy.v1 Data required –
External Vulnerability risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.external.vulnerability.v1 Data required –
Balance of Payments risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.balance.of.payments.v1 Data required –
Inflation Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inflation.risk.v1 Data required –
Growth at Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.growth.at.risk.v1 Data required r · macro.quantile_regression_fit
Unemployment Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.unemployment.risk.v1 Data required –
Poverty Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.poverty.risk.v1 Data required –
Inequality Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inequality.risk.v1 Data required –
Social Protection Adequacy risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.social.protection.adequacy.v1 Data required –
Fiscal Space risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.space.v1 Data required –
Public Investment Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.public.investment.risk.v1 Data required –
Project Delivery Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.project.delivery.risk.v1 Data required –
Debt Climate Interaction risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.climate.interaction.v1 Data required –
Sovereign Catastrophe Risk risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.catastrophe.risk.v1 Data required –
Contingent Liabilities risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.contingent.liabilities.v1 Data required –
Political Economy Scenario risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.political.economy.scenario.v1 Data required –
Institutional Capacity risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.institutional.capacity.v1 Data required –
Governance Shock risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.governance.shock.v1 Data required –
Development Trajectory risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.trajectory.v1 Data required –
SDG Trajectory risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sdg.trajectory.v1 Data required –
Aid Dependence risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.aid.dependence.v1 Data required –
Development Finance Additionality risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.finance.additionality.v1 Data required –
Programme Effectiveness risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.programme.effectiveness.v1 Data required Python · macro.local_projection
Debt Fan Chart risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.fan.chart.v1 Data required Python · sovereign.debt_fan_chart
02Wigo

Methods, data and supports

Method families
time series, Bayesian inference, causal inference, scenario ensemble, financial risk
Domains
sovereign, macro, development
Compute planes
Julia, Python, r
Source classes
official-statistics, fiscal, debt, macro, development
Spatial supports
country, admin, region
Temporal supports
monthly, quarterly, annual, scenario
Data required28
03Viwango

Standards that govern this fabric

Propose a method

New methods are registered with a stable ID and a hand-derived golden test.