Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risk
Methods for sovereign, macro, development on the Julia and Python and r compute planes.
28 capabilities
5 of 28 have a bound kernel or engine. States are shown as the registry records them; a request fails closed wherever an adapter, specialist model or governed data is still missing.
| Metodo | Capability ID | Stato | Viene eseguito su |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign Default Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.default.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Debt Sustainability | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.sustainability.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.debt_sustainability |
| Fiscal Stress | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.stress.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.fiscal_stress |
| Debt Service Burden | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.service.burden.v1 |
Data required | – |
| FX Reserve Adequacy | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fx.reserve.adequacy.v1 |
Data required | – |
| External Vulnerability | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.external.vulnerability.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Balance of Payments | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.balance.of.payments.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Inflation Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inflation.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Growth at Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.growth.at.risk.v1 |
Data required | r · macro.quantile_regression_fit |
| Unemployment Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.unemployment.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Poverty Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.poverty.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Inequality Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.inequality.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Social Protection Adequacy | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.social.protection.adequacy.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Fiscal Space | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.fiscal.space.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Public Investment Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.public.investment.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Project Delivery Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.project.delivery.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Debt Climate Interaction | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.climate.interaction.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Sovereign Catastrophe Risk | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sovereign.catastrophe.risk.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Contingent Liabilities | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.contingent.liabilities.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Political Economy Scenario | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.political.economy.scenario.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Institutional Capacity | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.institutional.capacity.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Governance Shock | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.governance.shock.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Development Trajectory | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.trajectory.v1 |
Data required | – |
| SDG Trajectory | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.sdg.trajectory.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Aid Dependence | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.aid.dependence.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Development Finance Additionality | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.development.finance.additionality.v1 |
Data required | – |
| Programme Effectiveness | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.programme.effectiveness.v1 |
Data required | Python · macro.local_projection |
| Debt Fan Chart | risk.capability.sovereign-macro-development.debt.fan.chart.v1 |
Data required | Python · sovereign.debt_fan_chart |
Methods, data and supports
- Method families
- time series, Bayesian inference, causal inference, scenario ensemble, financial risk
- Domini
- sovereign, macro, development
- Compute planes
- Julia, Python, r
- Source classes
- official-statistics, fiscal, debt, macro, development
- Spatial supports
- country, admin, region
- Temporal supports
- monthly, quarterly, annual, scenario
Propose a method
New methods are registered with a stable ID and a hand-derived golden test.
Stato
La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.
Che cosa non è NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.
Istituzioni e fonti
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.