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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index solutions · Public sector

Çok taraflı kuruluşlar ve kalkınma bankaları

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

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Sayfa GRX-SOL-MULTILATERALBaskı 2026 Temel SürümüKanıt kapanışı 2026-09-30Değerler henüz yayımlanmadıYöntem v1.0.0-draft
on: scenario run requested · Run a scenario or stress test7 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Choose the scenario family instant
  2. Configure shocks and horizon self-serve
  3. Model runs 3 hours
  4. Coupling propagation 1 hour
  5. Tail and exceedance 1 hour
  6. Results and drivers instant
  7. Analyst sign-off 2 days

01İhtiyaç

What this solution does

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

Screen country and project context

Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps

Design pre-arranged finance questions

02Featured run

Bir senaryo veya stres testi çalıştırın

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

on: scenario run requested

Bir senaryo veya stres testi çalıştırın

In progressTriggered by Risk analyst7 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Grafik
01Design
02Design
03Run
04Propagate
05Oku
06Oku

100%
Zaman çizelgesi
Job0 h10 h20 h30 h40 h50 hTarget
Choose the scenario familyYouinstant
Configure shocks and horizonYouinstant
Model runsModel Lab3 h
Coupling propagationDependency network1 h
Tail and exceedanceModel Lab1 h
Results and driversYouinstant
Analyst sign-offYour reviewer2 d

End to end on the longest path: about 2.2 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Adımlar
  1. Choose the scenario family

    Design · You · instant
    Warming, socio-economic or transition families · Or a structured shock: fiscal, compound hazard, supply
    Model Lab
  2. Configure shocks and horizon

    Design · You · self-serve
    Shock size, timing and entry points · Horizon to 2030, 2050 or 2100
    Model LabTested model kernels
  3. Model runs matrix · entities × scenarios × draws

    Run · Model Lab · 3 hours
    Kernels from the method library · Seeds recorded per run
    Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engine
  4. Coupling propagation

    Propagate · Dependency network · 1 hour
    DebtRank and threshold cascades · Cross-border spillovers
    Bağımlılık ağıTest edilmiş model çekirdekleri
  5. Tail and exceedance

    Propagate · Model Lab · 1 hour
    Exceedance curves · 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 losses · Expected shortfall
    Monte Carlo motoru
  6. Results and drivers

    Read · You · instant
    Fan charts against class bounds · Driver decomposition · Export with citation
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  7. Analyst sign-off approval

    Read · Your reviewer · 2 days
    Assumptions and limits recorded
    PostgreSQL defteri (satır düzeyinde güvenlik)
Çıktılar
Çıktı İş Kim Aşama
Scenario spec Choose the scenario family Siz Design
Run configuration Configure shocks and horizon Siz Design
Run record with seed and digest Model runs Model Lab Run
Cascade paths Coupling propagation Bağımlılık ağı Propagate
Tail report Tail and exceedance Model Lab Propagate
Results pack Results and drivers Siz Oku
Sign-off Analyst sign-off Your reviewer Oku
TamamlandıSürüyorOnay bekleniyorSıradaOnay kontrol noktasıMatris işiBuradasınız
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
03Yolculuklar

Every journey in this solution

NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Models · Model

Bir senaryo veya stres testi çalıştırın

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. 7 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Data · Scale

Bir portföyü veya tedarik zincirini tarayın

Locations, assets, suppliers or sovereign exposures matched and overlaid with hazard, country and coupling layers, then read as a portfolio posture. 6 jobs · 3 checks.

Open the run Models of the Index · Model

Parametrik bir tetikleyici tasarlayın

Study an index trigger for pre-arranged finance: event history, basis risk and calibration, with review before any use. Information for design, not advice. 6 jobs · 1 gate · 5 checks.

Open the run

04Ürünler

Ürünler ve hizmetler

INSTNXS-GRX API and data servicesREST endpoints, SDMX-compatible observation keys, vector tiles (ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3), bulk files and webhooks for threshold crossings; public anonymous cut for open values. INSTScenario and stress-test packsPathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests (compound hazards, transition shocks, fiscal shocks) for planning and supervisory exercises. INSTTail and protection-gap analyticsExceedance curves, return-period losses and protection-gap readings where loss can be modelled, and the catastrophic risk register. INSTBespoke and portfolio indicesIndices built for a sector, portfolio, supply chain, city or project on the Indicator Standard grammar, with the same uncertainty and provenance discipline. Portfolio postures are exposure-weighted views, never ratings.
05Seriler

Series most read

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-01Global WaterAccess, scarcity, quality, floods and droughts, groundwater depletion, transboundary dependency and the couplings of water to energy, food, health and nature. GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways. GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency. GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk. GS-06Global DevelopmentPoverty, inequality, human development, demographic pressure and displacement as the ground on which shocks become losses. GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100. GS-08Global DisasterMulti-hazard exposure, disaster losses and mortality, return-period losses, protection gaps and coping capacity. GS-09Global InfrastructureInfrastructure fragility, service continuity, interdependency of power, water, transport and telecommunications, and investment exposure.

Talk to the Secretariat

Enterprise, public-sector and sovereign work is agreed with GCRI Canada.

İletişim

Durum

The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.

NXS-GRX ne değildir

NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.

Pulse sinyalleri ve görünüm olasılıkları yetkili makamların incelemesi için bilgidir, asla kamuya yönelik uyarı değildir; resmî uyarılar yalnızca görevli makamlardan gelir.

Kurumlar ve kaynaklar

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.