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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index solutions · Public sector

Multilaterals and development banks

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

Follow a run All solutions
Page GRX-SOL-MULTILATERALEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
on: scenario run requested · Run a scenario or stress test7 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Choose the scenario family instant
  2. Configure shocks and horizon self-serve
  3. Model runs 3 hours
  4. Coupling propagation 1 hour
  5. Tail and exceedance 1 hour
  6. Results and drivers instant
  7. Analyst sign-off 2 days

01Need

What this solution does

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

Screen country and project context

Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps

Design pre-arranged finance questions

02Featured run

Run a scenario or stress test

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

on: scenario run requested

Run a scenario or stress test

In progressTriggered by Risk analyst7 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Graph
01Design
02Design
03Run
04Propagate
05Read
06Read

100%
Timeline
Job0 h10 h20 h30 h40 h50 hTarget
Choose the scenario familyYouinstant
Configure shocks and horizonYouinstant
Model runsModel Lab3 h
Coupling propagationDependency network1 h
Tail and exceedanceModel Lab1 h
Results and driversYouinstant
Analyst sign-offYour reviewer2 d

End to end on the longest path: about 2.2 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Choose the scenario family

    Design · You · instant
    Warming, socio-economic or transition families · Or a structured shock: fiscal, compound hazard, supply
    Model Lab
  2. Configure shocks and horizon

    Design · You · self-serve
    Shock size, timing and entry points · Horizon to 2030, 2050 or 2100
    Model LabTested model kernels
  3. Model runs matrix · entities × scenarios × draws

    Run · Model Lab · 3 hours
    Kernels from the method library · Seeds recorded per run
    Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engine
  4. Coupling propagation

    Propagate · Dependency network · 1 hour
    DebtRank and threshold cascades · Cross-border spillovers
    Dependency networkTested model kernels
  5. Tail and exceedance

    Propagate · Model Lab · 1 hour
    Exceedance curves · 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 losses · Expected shortfall
    Monte Carlo engine
  6. Results and drivers

    Read · You · instant
    Fan charts against class bounds · Driver decomposition · Export with citation
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  7. Analyst sign-off approval

    Read · Your reviewer · 2 days
    Assumptions and limits recorded
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
Artefacts
Artefact Job Who Hatua
Scenario spec Choose the scenario family You Design
Run configuration Configure shocks and horizon You Design
Run record with seed and digest Model runs Model Lab Run
Cascade paths Coupling propagation Dependency network Propagate
Tail report Tail and exceedance Model Lab Propagate
Results pack Results and drivers You Read
Sign-off Analyst sign-off Your reviewer Read
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateMatrix jobYou are here
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
03Safari

Every journey in this solution

NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Models · Model

Run a scenario or stress test

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. 7 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Data · Scale

Screen a portfolio or supply chain

Locations, assets, suppliers or sovereign exposures matched and overlaid with hazard, country and coupling layers, then read as a portfolio posture. 6 jobs · 3 checks.

Open the run Models of the Index · Model

Design a parametric trigger

Study an index trigger for pre-arranged finance: event history, basis risk and calibration, with review before any use. Information for design, not advice. 6 jobs · 1 gate · 5 checks.

Open the run

04Bidhaa

Products and services

INSTNXS-GRX API and data servicesREST endpoints, SDMX-compatible observation keys, vector tiles (ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3), bulk files and webhooks for threshold crossings; public anonymous cut for open values. INSTScenario and stress-test packsPathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests (compound hazards, transition shocks, fiscal shocks) for planning and supervisory exercises. INSTTail and protection-gap analyticsExceedance curves, return-period losses and protection-gap readings where loss can be modelled, and the catastrophic risk register. INSTBespoke and portfolio indicesIndices built for a sector, portfolio, supply chain, city or project on the Indicator Standard grammar, with the same uncertainty and provenance discipline. Portfolio postures are exposure-weighted views, never ratings.
05Mfululizo

Series most read

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-01Global WaterAccess, scarcity, quality, floods and droughts, groundwater depletion, transboundary dependency and the couplings of water to energy, food, health and nature. GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways. GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency. GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk. GS-06Global DevelopmentPoverty, inequality, human development, demographic pressure and displacement as the ground on which shocks become losses. GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100. GS-08Global DisasterMulti-hazard exposure, disaster losses and mortality, return-period losses, protection gaps and coping capacity. GS-09Global InfrastructureInfrastructure fragility, service continuity, interdependency of power, water, transport and telecommunications, and investment exposure.

Talk to the Secretariat

Enterprise, public-sector and sovereign work is agreed with GCRI Canada.

Wasiliana nasi

Hali

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

NXS-GRX si nini

NXS-GRX ni taarifa ya utafiti na uchambuzi wa hatari. Si daraja la mikopo wala la ESG na haitumii kipimo chochote cha daraja, si kigezo cha vyombo vya fedha, si takwimu rasmi, si onyo la dharura wala uainishaji rasmi, na si ushauri. Haipaswi kutumiwa kutathmini watu binafsi. Madaraja ya hatari ni mikanda kwenye kipimo kilichochapishwa, kamwe si mpangilio wa nchi au watu.

Ishara za Pulse na uwezekano wa mtazamo ni taarifa za kukaguliwa na mamlaka husika, kamwe si maonyo ya umma; maonyo rasmi hutoka tu kwa mamlaka zilizopewa jukumu.

Taasisi na vyanzo

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.