Sağlık ve biyogüvenlik
Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems.
21 families, 124 hazards
Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. Organised by biosphere; families by transmission route and host.
Airborne and respiratory infection health.respiratory
Infections spread through the air between people: the fastest-moving and widest-reaching outbreak type, so each hazard here is read at country scale or larger.
Worldwide spread of a respiratory virus to which most people have little immunity, overwhelming health systems and disrupting economies.
Also: novel virus pandemic, pandemic influenza
Yearly waves of influenza that fill clinics and hospitals and kill mainly the elderly and the frail.
Also: flu season
Influenza viruses from birds or pigs infecting people, with the risk of adapting to spread from person to person.
Also: avian influenza in people, swine influenza
An outbreak of a severe or novel coronavirus with person-to-person spread and a risk of severe respiratory illness.
Also: SARS-type outbreak, MERS-type outbreak, COVID-type outbreak
Rising or drug-resistant tuberculosis, a slowly spreading airborne bacterial disease, often in crowded or poor settings.
Also: drug-resistant tuberculosis
Clusters of meningitis from bacteria spread by close contact, which kills quickly without treatment and recurs in dry-season belts.
Also: meningococcal outbreak
Vaccine-preventable outbreaks health.vaccine-preventable
Outbreaks that exist only where immunisation has failed: grouped by system role, since the common driver is a coverage gap rather than the pathogen.
Spread of the highly contagious measles virus among under-vaccinated groups, with complications and deaths in children.
Transmission of poliovirus, including vaccine-derived strains, causing paralysis where immunisation is low.
Also: poliovirus
Resurgence of toxin-mediated diphtheria or epidemic whooping cough, most dangerous to infants, where immunity has lapsed.
Also: diphtheria, pertussis
An outbreak of another disease that vaccines prevent, such as mumps, rubella or varicella, after an immunisation gap.
Also: mumps, rubella, chickenpox
Faecal-oral and foodborne infection health.enteric
Infections spread by contaminated water, food and hands: they follow floods, sanitation failure, displacement and food distribution, so they are strongly linked to water and infrastructure hazards.
Acute watery diarrhoea from Vibrio cholerae in contaminated water, killing within hours without rehydration.
Systemic Salmonella infection from contaminated food and water, endemic where sanitation is poor.
Bloody diarrhoea from Shigella spreading through contaminated water, food and close contact.
Rotavirus, norovirus and similar viruses causing vomiting and diarrhoea, especially in children, institutions and camps.
Also: rotavirus, norovirus
Hepatitis A or E virus spreading through contaminated water and food, often after floods or in displacement camps.
Also: hepatitis A, hepatitis E
A cluster of illness traced to a common contaminated food, which can span regions through distribution networks.
Also: food poisoning outbreak, listeria, salmonella, E. coli outbreak.
A cluster of illness from drinking or contact with contaminated water, often after floods, treatment failure or mains breaks.
Also: cryptosporidium outbreak, drinking water outbreak
Vector-borne infection health.vector-borne
Infections carried by insects, ticks and other vectors: climate, land use and water management set where and when they occur, so they respond to atmospheric and water hazards with a lag.
Mosquito-borne dengue virus waves in warm, urban areas, with a risk of severe illness on repeat infection.
Viruses such as chikungunya and Zika spreading where Aedes mosquitoes breed, causing joint pain and birth defects.
A mosquito-borne haemorrhagic virus, preventable by vaccination, that flares in forest and urban cycles.
Bird-reservoir viruses, such as West Nile, spread by Culex mosquitoes and causing neurological disease in late summer.
Rising malaria transmission after climate shifts, conflict, funding gaps or drug and insecticide resistance.
Also: malaria
A flea-borne bacterial disease from rodent reservoirs, bubonic or pneumonic, lethal without antibiotics.
Sleeping sickness or Chagas disease carried by tsetse flies or triatomine bugs, with an animal form that kills livestock.
Also: sleeping sickness, Chagas disease
Rising Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis and related infections as ticks spread into new areas.
Also: Lyme disease
Resurgence of parasitic, bacterial and viral diseases of poverty, such as leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis and leprosy, in neglected populations.
Also: leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, leprosy
Outbreaks of insect-borne viruses that were rare or local and are now spreading to new populations, often with little testing and no vaccine.
Also: Oropouche outbreak, novel mosquito-borne virus, midge-borne virus outbreak.
Haemorrhagic fever health.haemorrhagic
Severe viral fevers with bleeding and high fatality, spread by body fluids, rodents or ticks, where care settings and funerals amplify outbreaks.
Highly lethal filovirus outbreaks spread by body fluids and in care settings, needing isolation and rapid contact tracing.
Also: Ebola, Marburg
A rodent-borne arenavirus fever, seasonal in West Africa, spread by contaminated food and in health facilities.
A tick-borne virus reaching farmers, abattoir workers and health staff through livestock and body fluids.
Blood-borne and sexually transmitted infection health.bloodborne
Infections spread through blood and intimate contact: slow, chronic and shaped by service access, so they behave as long-running burdens rather than events.
Sustained HIV transmission that, untreated, destroys immunity, driven by gaps in access, stigma and exclusion of key populations.
Also: AIDS
Long-term blood-borne hepatitis infections that cause liver cancer and failure, spread through unsafe injections, transfusions and birth.
Rising syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia, including drug-resistant strains, when testing and prevention lapse.
Also: syphilis, gonorrhoea
Animal-to-human spillover health.zoonotic
Infections that cross from animals to people through farming, wildlife contact, trade or the environment; they sit between the human, animal and ecosystem health sectors, so they link to the animal-health and ecosystem families.
A pathogen crossing from animals to people, through wildlife trade, farming, hunting or habitat change, with the potential to establish human transmission.
Also: emerging zoonosis, Q fever, cysticercosis
A spore-forming bacterial disease of livestock and wildlife that infects people through contact with carcasses, hides and meat.
A bacterial infection passed from livestock to people through raw milk and animal contact, causing long fevers.
A fatal viral disease spread by bites from infected dogs and wildlife, preventable by vaccinating animals and giving post-exposure care.
A rodent-urine bacterial infection spreading in floodwater and wet farmland, causing fever and kidney and liver failure.
A poxvirus passing from animals to people and then by close contact, with painful lesions and added risk for the immunocompromised.
A mosquito- and contact-borne virus causing livestock abortion storms and human fever after heavy rain in dry regions.
Bat-borne viruses that jump to people via contaminated food or animals and cause deadly brain infections.
Also: Nipah
Rare and persistent human infections health.other-human
Low-frequency infections whose risk is dominated by consequence: contact-transmitted or slow-incubating agents that need special surveillance.
A cluster of fatal, untreatable brain diseases caused by misfolded proteins, linked to food, medical procedures or animal feed.
Also: mad cow disease
Return of an eradicated, highly lethal poxvirus from a laboratory or a deliberate release into a population with no immunity.
Livestock and aquaculture epizootics health.animal-health
Transboundary disease of farmed animals: the hazard is the culling, trade closure and food-supply shock that follow, so the family is read with food and economy contexts.
African or classical swine fever sweeping pig herds, with mass culls, trade bans and little or no treatment.
Also: African swine fever, classical swine fever
A highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals that halts livestock trade and forces culls.
Pleuropneumonia or plague outbreaks among cattle, goats and sheep that kill herds and threaten pastoral livelihoods.
Also: pleuropneumonia, small ruminant plague
Insect-transmitted livestock diseases, such as lumpy skin disease, that spread with biting flies and seasonal climate.
Also: lumpy skin disease
Newcastle disease or avian influenza sweeping poultry flocks, with mass culling and shocks to egg and meat supply.
Also: Newcastle disease, avian flu in flocks
Flesh-eating fly larvae infesting wounds of livestock, wildlife and people, spreading with animal trade and warmth.
Also: myiasis
Pathogens, such as shellfish and shrimp diseases, spreading through farmed stocks and killing them in large numbers.
Also: shrimp disease, oyster disease
An outbreak of a non-zoonotic animal disease not covered by a more specific hazard, cutting herd health and output.
Plant disease and pests health.plant-health
Threats to crop and wild plant health from microbes, insects and invading species; the impact reaches food and ecosystem contexts.
Epidemics of bacterial or fungal plant disease, such as rusts and blights, that destroy yields over large areas.
Also: rust, blight, wilt
Viral, phytoplasma or viroid disease spread by insects and cuttings that stunts crops and has no cure.
Also: phytoplasma, viroid
Population explosions of insect pests that strip crops and stored grain over wide areas.
Also: armyworm, pest infestation
Dense migrating swarms of locusts that devour crops and pasture across borders.
Also: desert locust
A non-native plant, animal or microbe spreading unchecked and displacing natives, damaging farming, fisheries and ecosystems.
Also: invasive weed, alien species
Systemic biological risks health.systemic-bio
Risks that weaken the whole defence against infection or release agents deliberately; they raise the consequence of every other health hazard.
Spread of microbes that no longer respond to medicines, making routine infections and surgery dangerous.
Also: drug-resistant infection, superbug
Intentional or accidental release of a pathogen or toxin, as a weapon or from a research, vaccine or production setting.
Also: bioterrorism, laboratory escape
Environmental and product harm to people health.harm
Direct, non-infectious harm that arrives through the environment or the marketplace; grouped by system role because each is a failure of a protective system (wildlife safety, medicine quality, alcohol and drug control).
Bites from venomous snakes that kill or maim farm workers and children where antivenom and transport are scarce, and rise when floods push snakes into homes.
Also: snake bite
Medical products of poor quality or deliberately fake that fail to treat illness, cause poisoning and drive drug resistance.
Also: counterfeit medicine
Mass poisoning from drinks adulterated with methanol or other toxic industrial alcohols.
Also: methanol poisoning
Waves of deaths from opioids and other addictive substances, driven by potent synthetics and gaps in treatment.
Also: opioid crisis
Climate-sensitive illness health.climate-sensitive
Illness that rises directly with weather and climate, as distinct from the weather hazards themselves; health systems warn and act on these through heat-health, allergy and vector programmes.
A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.
Also: heatstroke surge, heat exhaustion, heat-related deaths
A rise in hypothermia, heart attacks, strokes and respiratory illness during cold spells, worst among people in poorly heated homes or without shelter.
Also: hypothermia, excess winter deaths
Spread of mosquitoes, ticks and other disease carriers into higher latitudes and altitudes as climate warms and trade moves them, exposing new populations to infection.
Also: invasive mosquito spread, tick range expansion, vector shift to higher latitudes.
Longer and stronger pollen seasons and spread of allergenic plants under warming and higher carbon dioxide, worsening allergy and asthma.
Also: pollen surge, hay fever season lengthening, allergenic pollen.
Severe wound and gut infections from bacteria that thrive in warming coastal and brackish waters, spreading to coasts where they were once rare.
Also: vibriosis, seawater wound infection
Drug and insecticide resistance by pathogen class health.drug-resistance
Loss of the medicines and insecticides that control infection, split by broad class of organism so that each can be tracked; together they erode modern medicine.
Spread of bacterial infections that resist most or all available antibiotics, turning common infections, childbirth and surgery into life-threatening events.
Also: last-resort antibiotic resistance, pan-resistant bacteria
Viruses that no longer respond to standard antiviral medicines, causing treatment failure and onward spread of resistant strains.
Also: HIV drug resistance, antiviral failure
Parasites that escape the medicines used to cure malaria and other parasitic diseases, raising deaths and threatening elimination efforts.
Also: antimalarial resistance, treatment-resistant malaria
Fungal infections that resist the few available antifungal medicines, partly driven by fungicide use in farming, leaving vulnerable patients without treatment.
Also: drug-resistant fungal infection
Mosquitoes and other vectors that survive the insecticides used in bed nets and spraying, weakening control of malaria, dengue and other diseases.
Also: mosquito insecticide resistance, vector control failure
Too few new antimicrobials reaching patients, and fragile supply of old ones, because development is unprofitable, leaving resistance to outpace treatment.
Also: empty antibiotic pipeline, antibiotic shortage
Emerging and unknown infection threats health.emerging
Infection threats defined by novelty or by the setting in which they spread rather than by a known agent; grouped because they need early detection and broad readiness rather than agent-specific plans.
Emergence of a not-yet-known infectious disease, by any route of spread, able to cause a serious international epidemic before tests, treatments or vaccines exist.
Also: Disease X, pathogen X, novel pathogen epidemic.
New or newly dangerous fungal infections in people, often hard to diagnose and treat, spreading in hospitals and among people with weakened immunity as climate and medicine change.
Also: emerging fungal disease, invasive fungal infection outbreak.
Spread of soil-living fungal diseases into new regions as warming and drying shift their habitat, causing lung infections where doctors are unprepared.
Also: valley fever spread, soil fungus range shift.
Outbreaks of infection that spread within hospitals, clinics or care homes through contaminated equipment, hands or water, harming already vulnerable patients.
Also: hospital-acquired infection outbreak, nosocomial outbreak, care-home outbreak.
A cluster of serious illness or deaths with no identified cause, needing rapid investigation because it may signal a new infection or poisoning.
Also: unknown disease cluster, mystery illness
Maternal, newborn and child health emergencies health.maternal-child
Failures in the care that protects pregnancy, birth and early childhood; they sit together because the same services, supplies and staff guard against all of them.
A rise in deaths of women during pregnancy and childbirth when skilled birth care, blood, emergency surgery or transport become unavailable.
Also: maternal death surge, obstetric emergency care loss.
An increase in deaths of babies in their first month from infection, birth complications and prematurity when newborn care breaks down.
Also: neonatal death surge, neonatal sepsis
More babies born early, small or stillborn as heat, air pollution, malnutrition and stress affect pregnancies, with lifelong effects on survivors.
Also: preterm birth rise, low birthweight, stillbirth rise.
A fall in routine childhood vaccination because services, outreach or funding fail, leaving cohorts of unprotected children and seeding outbreaks.
Also: zero-dose children, missed vaccinations, routine immunisation backsliding.
Loss of safe infant feeding when breastfeeding support collapses, formula runs short or safe water is lost, putting infants at risk of malnutrition and infection.
Also: infant formula shortage, breastfeeding disruption
Loss of contraception, antenatal care and safe delivery services in crises or funding cuts, leading to unintended pregnancies, unsafe births and maternal deaths.
Also: contraceptive stockout, family planning service loss
Mental health crises health.mental
Population-level rises in psychological distress and mental illness that follow shocks, isolation or social change; grouped because they share drivers and the same thin care systems.
A sharp rise in anxiety, depression and distress across a population after a pandemic, war, economic collapse or disaster, overwhelming scarce mental health services.
Also: collective trauma, mass psychological distress, Population mental-health crisis, mental health emergency, psychological trauma burden.
Lasting traumatic stress and grief among survivors, responders and displaced people after disasters or violence, impairing recovery, work and family life.
Also: post-traumatic stress, disaster trauma, PTSD after disaster.
A sustained rise in suicide across a population or group, often linked to economic hardship, isolation, debt, heat or access to lethal means.
Also: suicide epidemic, rising suicide deaths
Rising depression, anxiety, self-harm and eating disorders among children and young people, linked to social pressures, online harms and disrupted schooling.
Also: adolescent mental health crisis, child mental health emergency.
Anxiety, grief and loss of wellbeing tied to climate change and the loss of home places, worst among young people and communities facing repeated disasters.
Also: eco-anxiety, solastalgia, climate grief
Widespread loneliness and loss of social contact, especially among older and young people, raising the risk of depression, dementia, heart disease and early death.
Also: loneliness epidemic, social disconnection, Social isolation and loneliness.
Rapid spread of real physical symptoms through a group, such as a school or workplace, without a toxic or infectious cause, driven by fear and social transmission.
Also: mass sociogenic illness, epidemic hysteria
A rise in addictive and harmful gambling, accelerated by online and mobile betting, causing debt, family breakdown, depression and suicide.
Also: online gambling harm, problem gambling
Noncommunicable disease surges health.ncd
Long-running rises in chronic, non-infectious disease driven by diet, tobacco, pollution, ageing and gaps in care; they build slowly but carry most of the world’s illness burden.
Rising rates of heart attack, stroke and high blood pressure, driven by diet, inactivity, pollution and untreated risk factors, causing early death and disability.
Also: heart attack and stroke surge, hypertension epidemic, high blood pressure burden, Rising non-communicable disease burden, NCD epidemic, obesity epidemic, chronic disease surge.
Fast growth in diabetes across populations, leading to blindness, kidney failure, amputation and heart disease where screening and treatment lag behind.
Also: type 2 diabetes epidemic, diabetes surge
Population-wide rise in excess body weight from food environments and sedentary living, raising the risk of diabetes, heart disease, cancers and joint disease.
Also: overweight epidemic, childhood obesity
Growing numbers of cancer cases from ageing, tobacco, infection, pollution and lifestyle, outpacing diagnosis and treatment capacity and causing avoidable deaths.
Also: cancer surge, rising cancer incidence
Lasting lung disease such as chronic obstructive disease and asthma, worsened by smoke, dust and air pollution, causing breathlessness, hospital stays and early death.
Also: COPD, chronic obstructive lung disease, asthma burden.
Rising chronic kidney damage, including clusters among outdoor workers linked to heat, dehydration and toxicants, that leads to kidney failure where dialysis is scarce.
Also: kidney disease of unknown cause, heat-stress nephropathy.
Growing numbers of people living with dementia as populations age, straining families, long-term care systems and health budgets for years.
Also: Alzheimer’s disease burden, neurodegenerative disease rise
Long-lasting fatigue, organ damage or disability that follows an infection wave, removing people from work and school and adding a hidden care burden.
Also: long COVID, post-viral fatigue, post-acute infection syndrome.
Widespread use of tobacco and nicotine products, including new products taken up by young people, that drives cancer, heart and lung disease.
Also: smoking epidemic, vaping uptake, nicotine addiction
Heavy and harmful drinking across a population that causes liver disease, cancers, injuries, violence and family harm.
Also: alcohol-related harm, binge drinking
Sudden loss of ongoing treatment such as dialysis, insulin or cancer care during a disaster, conflict or shortage, turning stable chronic illness into emergencies.
Also: dialysis interruption, insulin access loss, treatment interruption.
Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency health.nutrition
Harm to health from too little, too much or the wrong food; distinct from the food crises that cause it, because these are the bodily conditions that health and nutrition systems track and treat.
A rapid rise in dangerous weight loss among young children and other vulnerable people during food crises, disease outbreaks or conflict, sharply raising the risk of death.
Also: wasting, severe acute malnutrition, child wasting surge.
Long-term poor nutrition and repeated infection in early childhood that stunt growth and brain development, reducing lifelong health, learning and earnings.
Also: stunting, child growth failure
Widespread lack of essential vitamins and minerals in diets, causing anaemia, blindness, weakened immunity and birth defects even where calories are sufficient.
Also: hidden hunger, vitamin A deficiency, iron-deficiency anaemia, zinc deficiency.
Outbreaks of classic deficiency diseases in camps, prisons or aid-dependent populations living on narrow rations, causing nerve, skin and heart damage.
Also: scurvy outbreak, pellagra outbreak, beriberi outbreak
A shift in national diets towards highly processed foods high in sugar, salt and fat, driving obesity and chronic disease alongside persistent undernutrition.
Also: ultra-processed diet shift, nutrition transition
Loss of protein, iron and zinc in staple crops grown under higher carbon dioxide and heat, quietly deepening deficiency in populations that rely on those staples.
Also: falling food nutrient density, carbon dioxide nutrient dilution.
Occupational disease and injury health.occupational
Harm that arises from exposure at work; grouped together because workplace standards, inspection and compensation systems are the main line of defence against each.
Scarring and disease of the lungs from breathing mineral dusts, fibres or fumes at work, including resurgent silicosis among stone workers, causing disability and death.
Also: silicosis, pneumoconiosis, engineered stone silicosis, black lung.
Heat stress among outdoor and factory workers that causes collapse, kidney injury, accidents and lost working hours as hot days become more common.
Also: worker heat stress, outdoor worker heat illness.
Cancers caused by exposure at work to carcinogenic dusts, chemicals, fumes, radiation or night shifts, often appearing decades after exposure.
Also: work-related cancer, workplace carcinogen exposure
Acute or chronic poisoning of workers by solvents, metals, fumigants or other industrial chemicals through poor controls, protective equipment or ventilation.
Also: solvent poisoning, workplace poisoning
Deaths and disabling injuries from falls, machinery, vehicles and collapses at work, highest in construction, farming, fishing and informal labour.
Also: occupational injury, work accidents, fatal work injury.
Illness and death linked to long working hours, job strain, insecurity and harassment at work, including heart disease, depression and suicide.
Also: burnout, overwork deaths, workplace stress
Health system capacity failure health.system
Slow or sudden loss of the people, money, trust and information that a health system runs on; each raises the toll of every disease hazard.
Too few doctors, nurses, midwives and community health workers because of burnout, migration, low pay or deaths, leaving services unstaffed and care delayed.
Also: health worker exodus, clinician burnout, nurse shortage.
Prolonged strikes or walkouts by health staff that suspend clinics, surgery and outreach, delaying care for large populations.
Also: doctors’ strike, nurses’ strike
Sudden loss of public, donor or insurance funding for health that closes programmes, cuts medicine supply and halts disease control.
Also: health aid cuts, donor withdrawal, health budget collapse.
Households pushed into poverty by direct payments for care, or forced to forgo treatment, as costs rise or financial protection is withdrawn.
Also: medical impoverishment, health cost crisis
Loss of public trust in vaccines, fed by misinformation, politicisation or a safety scare, that lowers uptake and lets eliminated diseases return.
Also: vaccine hesitancy, anti-vaccine movement, vaccine refusal
Interruption of routine services such as primary care, screening, immunisation and disease programmes during crises, causing excess deaths that outlast the crisis.
Also: primary care collapse, routine service disruption
Loss or neglect of the systems that detect and report outbreaks, so epidemics grow unseen and responses start late.
Also: surveillance blind spot, outbreak detection failure
Hospitals and clinics that stop working because of flooding, fire, power or water loss or structural damage, forcing evacuation of patients when need is highest.
Also: hospital evacuation, hospital shutdown
Erosion of international agreements, funding and data sharing for health, weakening joint outbreak response and leaving countries to face epidemics alone.
Also: withdrawal from international health cooperation, pandemic preparedness gap.
260 expert relations
Triggers, amplifications, compound pairs and reductions from the Hazard Standard expert model; 59 lead out of this domain into others.
| Kimden | Tür | Kime | Mekanizma | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropikal siklon | trigger |
Dengue epidemic | standing water and displacement raise mosquito exposure | düşük |
| Tropikal siklon | trigger |
Leptospirosis outbreak | floodwater contact with contaminated soil | düşük |
| Tropikal siklon | trigger |
Locust swarm | cyclone rain creates breeding conditions | medium |
| Yoğun yağış | amplify |
Dengue epidemic | standing water adds mosquito breeding sites | medium |
| Yoğun yağış | amplify |
Rift Valley fever outbreak | flooded ground hatches infected mosquito eggs | medium |
| Yoğun yağış | amplify |
Malaria resurgence | pools lengthen the transmission season | medium |
| Yoğun yağış | amplify |
Bacterial and fungal crop disease | leaf wetness spreads fungal and bacterial disease | medium |
| Yoğun yağış | trigger |
Waterborne disease outbreak | overflow contaminates drinking water | medium |
| Yoğun yağış | trigger |
Leptospirosis outbreak | floodwater carries rodent urine into contact with people | medium |
| Yoğun yağış | trigger |
Locust swarm | rain after dry spells creates breeding conditions | medium |
| Sıcak hava dalgası | amplify |
Foodborne illness outbreak | faster bacterial growth in food | medium |
| Sıcak hava dalgası | amplify |
Dengue epidemic | warmth speeds vector development and virus replication | medium |
| Cold wave | reduces |
Dengue epidemic | cold suppresses mosquito activity | medium |
| Hard freeze | reduces |
Crop insect pest outbreak | winter kill of overwintering pests | medium |
| Dust storm | amplify |
Bacterial meningitis outbreak | dry, dusty season irritates airways and spreads carriage | düşük |
| Tropical Pacific climate swing | trigger |
Dengue epidemic | temperature and rainfall anomalies shape vector habitat | medium |
| Tropical Pacific climate swing | trigger |
Rift Valley fever outbreak | anomalous rainfall in vulnerable dry regions | medium |
| Tropical Pacific climate swing | amplify |
Crop insect pest outbreak | weather anomalies favour pest growth | düşük |
| Nehir taşkını | trigger |
Cholera outbreak | contaminated water and failed sanitation | medium |
| Nehir taşkını | trigger |
Waterborne disease outbreak | contamination of supplies | yüksek |
| Nehir taşkını | trigger |
Leptospirosis outbreak | contact with contaminated floodwater | yüksek |
| Nehir taşkını | trigger |
Faecal-oral hepatitis outbreak | faecal contamination of water | medium |
| Nehir taşkını | amplify |
Snakebite envenoming | flooding pushes snakes into homes and fields | düşük |
| Surface-water flood | amplify |
Waterborne disease outbreak | mixing of floodwater and sewage | medium |
| Meteorolojik kuraklık | amplify |
Anthrax outbreak | stressed livestock graze near spore-bearing soil | düşük |
| Meteorolojik kuraklık | amplify |
Crop insect pest outbreak | stressed crops and shifted pest cycles | medium |
| Water supply shortfall | trigger |
Cholera outbreak | use of unsafe sources | medium |
| Marine heatwave | amplify |
Aquaculture disease outbreak | heat-stressed farmed stock | medium |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Anthrax outbreak | thawing exposes old carcasses and spores | düşük |
| Volcanic ash fall | amplify |
Tüberküloz artışı | fine ash adds respiratory stress | düşük |
| Deforestation | amplify |
Zoonotic spillover event | more contact between people, wildlife and livestock | medium |
| Deforestation | amplify |
Malaria resurgence | clearing creates breeding habitat at forest edges | düşük |
| Biyoçeşitlilik kaybı | amplify |
Zoonotic spillover event | loss of buffer species changes host communities | düşük |
| Biyoçeşitlilik kaybı | amplify |
Tick-borne disease surge | fewer predators and fewer low-competence hosts for ticks | düşük |
| Human-wildlife conflict | trigger |
Rabies outbreak | bites from infected wild animals | düşük |
| Outdoor air pollution episode | amplify |
Seasonal influenza epidemic | inflamed airways raise susceptibility | düşük |
| Household air pollution | amplify |
Tüberküloz artışı | smoke damages lungs and immunity | medium |
| Solid waste mismanagement | amplify |
Dengue epidemic | discarded containers hold water for mosquitoes | medium |
| Hazardous and clinical waste release | amplify |
Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burden | sharps injuries from clinical waste | düşük |
| Untreated wastewater discharge | trigger |
Waterborne disease outbreak | pathogens in receiving water | yüksek |
| Untreated wastewater discharge | trigger |
Cholera outbreak | faecal contamination of water used for drinking | medium |
| Untreated wastewater discharge | amplify |
Antimikrobiyal direnç | resistant bacteria and drug residues released | medium |
| Disaster and conflict debris | amplify |
Dengue epidemic | debris holds standing water | düşük |
| Respiratory pandemic | trigger |
Health-system overload | patients exceed beds and staff | yüksek |
| Respiratory pandemic | trigger |
Tedarik zinciri aksaması | absenteeism and closures | yüksek |
| Respiratory pandemic | trigger |
Medical supply shortage | demand surge for protective and medical goods | yüksek |
| Respiratory pandemic | trigger |
Financial market and banking shock | abrupt fall in activity | medium |
| Respiratory pandemic | trigger |
Panic buying and hoarding | fear of shortages | medium |
| Respiratory pandemic | amplify |
Emergency-response overload | responders fall ill or are diverted to the outbreak | medium |
| Seasonal influenza epidemic | amplify |
Health-system overload | winter admission peaks | medium |
| Zoonotic influenza spillover | trigger |
Respiratory pandemic | adaptation to sustained human spread | düşük |
| Coronavirus outbreak | trigger |
Respiratory pandemic | sustained spread across regions | medium |
| Coronavirus outbreak | amplify |
Health-system overload | hospital clusters and staff infections | medium |
| Tüberküloz artışı | amplify |
Antimikrobiyal direnç | incomplete treatment selects resistant strains | medium |
| Measles outbreak | amplify |
Health-system overload | paediatric admissions rise | düşük |
| Polio outbreak | trigger |
Medical supply shortage | vaccine demand for outbreak campaigns | düşük |
| Cholera outbreak | amplify |
Health-system overload | rapid surge of severe dehydration | medium |
| Foodborne illness outbreak | trigger |
Food supply-chain breakdown | product recalls | düşük |
| Dengue epidemic | amplify |
Health-system overload | surges of severe cases | medium |
| Chikungunya and Zika outbreak | compound-with |
Dengue epidemic | the same mosquito spreads both, so outbreaks overlap | medium |
| Malaria resurgence | amplify |
Acute food crisis | illness reduces labour in planting and harvest | düşük |
| West Nile and Culex-borne virus outbreak | amplify |
Health-system overload | neuroinvasive cases need intensive care | düşük |
| Trypanosomiasis outbreak | amplify |
Acute food crisis | illness and herd losses cut farm output | düşük |
| Yellow fever outbreak | trigger |
Medical supply shortage | vaccine stock runs short in large outbreaks | medium |
| Ebola and Marburg outbreak | trigger |
Health-system overload | isolation needs and health-worker infections | yüksek |
| Ebola and Marburg outbreak | trigger |
Trade restriction or embargo | travel and trade restrictions | medium |
| Lassa fever outbreak | amplify |
Health-system overload | infections in health workers | düşük |
| Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever outbreak | amplify |
Health-system overload | hospital-acquired spread to staff | düşük |
| Sexually transmitted infection resurgence | amplify |
HIV salgını | genital ulcers and inflammation raise transmission | medium |
| Zoonotic spillover event | trigger |
Coronavirus outbreak | a novel virus establishes in people | düşük |
| Zoonotic spillover event | trigger |
Ebola and Marburg outbreak | contact with infected wildlife | düşük |
| Zoonotic spillover event | trigger |
Nipah and henipavirus outbreak | contact with food or animals contaminated by bats | düşük |
| Vector-borne livestock disease | compound-with |
Rift Valley fever outbreak | the same mosquito-borne outbreak strikes herds and herders together | medium |
| Brucellosis outbreak | amplify |
Acute food crisis | abortions in herds cut milk and offspring | düşük |
| Mpox outbreak | amplify |
Medical supply shortage | demand for limited vaccine | düşük |
| Prion disease cluster | trigger |
Trade restriction or embargo | bans on beef and feed exports | yüksek |
| Smallpox reintroduction | trigger |
Health-system overload | isolation and mass vaccination demand | yüksek |
| Smallpox reintroduction | trigger |
Medical supply shortage | vaccine stockpiles drawn down | medium |
| Swine fever epizootic | trigger |
Food supply-chain breakdown | culling and movement bans | yüksek |
| Swine fever epizootic | trigger |
Trade restriction or embargo | import bans on pork | yüksek |
| Swine fever epizootic | trigger |
Commodity price shock | pork supply falls | medium |
| Foot-and-mouth epizootic | trigger |
Trade restriction or embargo | export bans on livestock products | yüksek |
| Foot-and-mouth epizootic | trigger |
Food supply-chain breakdown | movement standstill and culling | medium |
| Poultry epizootic | trigger |
Zoonotic influenza spillover | close contact with infected birds | medium |
| Poultry epizootic | trigger |
Food supply-chain breakdown | flock culling | medium |
| Ruminant respiratory epizootic | amplify |
Acute food crisis | herd losses in pastoral households | medium |
| Screwworm infestation | trigger |
Trade restriction or embargo | animal movement controls | medium |
| Livestock disease outbreak | amplify |
Acute food crisis | loss of herds that households depend on | medium |
| Aquaculture disease outbreak | trigger |
Food supply-chain breakdown | farm stock losses | medium |
| Bacterial and fungal crop disease | trigger |
Acute food crisis | harvest losses in staple crops | medium |
| Bacterial and fungal crop disease | amplify |
Simultaneous multi-region crop failure | pathogens spread across producing regions | düşük |
| Plant virus epidemic | amplify |
Acute food crisis | staple crop yield losses | medium |
| Crop insect pest outbreak | trigger |
Acute food crisis | crop damage | medium |
| Locust swarm | trigger |
Acute food crisis | swarms consume crops and pasture | yüksek |
| Locust swarm | trigger |
Pesticide exposure | large-scale control spraying | medium |
| Invasive species spread | trigger |
Biyoçeşitlilik kaybı | native species outcompeted | yüksek |
| Invasive species spread | amplify |
Orman yangını | invasive grasses add continuous fuel | medium |
| Antimikrobiyal direnç | amplify |
Tüberküloz artışı | drugs stop working | yüksek |
| Antimikrobiyal direnç | amplify |
Typhoid and paratyphoid fever | resistant strains are harder to treat | yüksek |
| Antimikrobiyal direnç | amplify |
Health-system overload | longer stays and treatment failures | medium |
| Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release | trigger |
Health-system overload | mass casualties and contact tracing | yüksek |
| Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release | trigger |
Panic buying and hoarding | fear after a release | düşük |
| Substandard and falsified medicines | amplify |
Antimikrobiyal direnç | sub-therapeutic doses select resistance | medium |
| Substandard and falsified medicines | amplify |
Malaria resurgence | treatment failure with poor-quality antimalarials | medium |
| Adulterated alcohol poisoning | trigger |
Health-system overload | poisoning clusters need dialysis and antidotes | düşük |
| Overdose epidemic | amplify |
HIV salgını | shared injecting equipment | medium |
| Overdose epidemic | amplify |
Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burden | shared injecting equipment | yüksek |
| Water supply failure | trigger |
Waterborne disease outbreak | people turn to unsafe sources | medium |
| Water supply failure | trigger |
Cholera outbreak | loss of safe water and hygiene | medium |
| Water supply failure | amplify |
Viral diarrhoea outbreak | less hand washing and unsafe stored water | medium |
| Sewer and drain failure | trigger |
Waterborne disease outbreak | sewage enters homes, streets and water | medium |
| Disinformation campaign | amplify |
Measles outbreak | lower vaccine uptake | medium |
| Internal armed conflict | amplify |
Cholera outbreak | water and health services break down | yüksek |
| Internal armed conflict | amplify |
Polio outbreak | vaccination campaigns cannot reach children | medium |
| Kitlesel yerinden edilme | amplify |
Cholera outbreak | crowded camps with poor sanitation | yüksek |
| Kitlesel yerinden edilme | amplify |
Measles outbreak | crowding and missed vaccination | yüksek |
| Kitlesel yerinden edilme | amplify |
Tüberküloz artışı | crowded shelter and interrupted treatment | medium |
| Kitlesel yerinden edilme | amplify |
Shigellosis and dysentery outbreak | crowding and shared latrines | medium |
| Kitlesel yerinden edilme | amplify |
Diphtheria and whooping cough outbreak | crowding and missed vaccination | medium |
| Kitlesel yerinden edilme | amplify |
Neglected tropical disease outbreak | movement into endemic areas without care | düşük |
| Kitlesel yerinden edilme | amplify |
Plague outbreak | crowding with rodents and fleas | düşük |
| Acute food crisis | amplify |
Cholera outbreak | malnutrition weakens defences | medium |
| Acute food crisis | amplify |
Measles outbreak | malnourished children die more often | yüksek |
| Governance breakdown | amplify |
Polio outbreak | routine immunisation stops | medium |
| Governance breakdown | amplify |
Other vaccine-preventable outbreak | routine immunisation gaps widen | düşük |
| Cold-chain failure | trigger |
Foodborne illness outbreak | perishable food kept warm | medium |
| Medical supply shortage | amplify |
Substandard and falsified medicines | falsified products fill the gap | medium |
| Deforestation | amplify |
Emerging arbovirus outbreak | new contact with vectors | medium |
| Marine heatwave | amplify |
Warm-water bacterial infection | bacteria multiply in warm water | medium |
| Sıcak hava dalgası | trigger |
Heat-related illness surge | body overheats | medium |
| Sıcak hava dalgası | amplify |
Preterm and low birthweight birth rise | heat stress in pregnancy | medium |
| Sıcak hava dalgası | amplify |
Suicide rate rise | heat worsens mental illness | medium |
| Sıcak hava dalgası | trigger |
Occupational heat strain | heat at work | medium |
| Cold wave | trigger |
Cold-related illness surge | body chills | medium |
| Wildlife disease panzootic | trigger |
Poultry epizootic | wild birds carry virus to flocks | yüksek |
| Wildlife disease panzootic | trigger |
Zoonotic spillover event | infected wildlife contact people | medium |
| Climate-driven species range shift | amplify |
Tick-borne disease surge | vectors spread into new regions | medium |
| AI uplift for biological weapons | amplify |
Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release | more actors able to produce and release agents | medium |
| Humid heat stress | trigger |
Heat-related illness surge | sweating stops cooling | medium |
| Humid heat stress | amplify |
Chronic kidney disease surge | repeated dehydration injures kidneys | medium |
| Heat-related illness surge | trigger |
Health-system overload | emergency surge | medium |
| Heat-driven grid stress | amplify |
Heat-related illness surge | cooling lost in outages | medium |
| Cold-wave energy crunch | amplify |
Cold-related illness surge | homes go unheated | medium |
| Disease vector range expansion | amplify |
Dengue epidemic | vectors reach new populations | medium |
| Disease vector range expansion | amplify |
Tick-borne disease surge | ticks reach new areas | medium |
| Aeroallergen season intensification | amplify |
Thunderstorm asthma | more pollen to break up | medium |
| Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread | compound-with |
Antimikrobiyal direnç | specific class of overall resistance | medium |
| Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread | amplify |
Health-system overload | longer, costlier stays | medium |
| Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread | amplify |
Healthcare-associated infection outbreak | untreatable hospital strains | medium |
| Antimalarial and antiparasitic drug resistance | amplify |
Malaria resurgence | cures fail | medium |
| Insecticide resistance in disease vectors | amplify |
Malaria resurgence | nets and sprays fail | medium |
| Insecticide resistance in disease vectors | amplify |
Dengue epidemic | vector control fails | medium |
| Antiviral drug resistance | amplify |
HIV salgını | treatment failure | medium |
| Antimicrobial development and supply failure | amplify |
Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread | no new treatments | medium |
| Substandard and falsified medicines | amplify |
Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread | underdosing selects resistance | medium |
| Zoonotic spillover event | trigger |
Unknown future pathogen emergence | new agent enters people | medium |
| Unknown future pathogen emergence | trigger |
Health-system overload | surge of patients | medium |
| Disease surveillance failure | amplify |
Unknown future pathogen emergence | late detection | medium |
| Disease surveillance failure | amplify |
Respiratory pandemic | late detection | medium |
| Undiagnosed illness cluster | trigger |
Unknown future pathogen emergence | early signal of new agent | medium |
100 more relations are in the Hazard Standard dataset.
Risk classes in this domain
Risk classes are Hazard Standard tags with published criteria; a tag is not a severity value.
Global risk
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it.
Risk type
5 hazardsFelaket riski
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from.
Risk type
7 hazardsExponential risk
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response.
Risk type
21 hazardsEmerging risk
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature.
Risk type
1 hazardsExistential risk
A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential.
Risk type
1 hazardsFrontier technology risk
A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment.
Risk type
1 hazardsPlanetary risk
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole.
Risk type
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms, standards, learning and working groups across GCRI, GRF and GRA for the systems these hazards act on.
Nexus genelinde
Health Nexus · GCRI Biotechnology and Biosecurity · Health Nexus and Biosecurity Governance · Insurance Nexus.
Propose a change to Hazard Standard
Definitions and relations are a draft for expert review; corrections follow the standards development process.
Durum
The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.
NXS-GRX ne değildir
NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.
Kurumlar ve kaynaklar
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.